World Cup Betting: Day 1
This article was first published to the Ultimate Stats Betting Pack, World Cup group
A copy of the Ultimate Stats Betting Pack for the 2018 World Cup in Russia available here.
World Cup – Latest News
Well the biggest news (and it really is one of the biggest World Cup stories ever) have got to be the the shambles that is the Real Madrid, Lopetegui and Spain threesome.
I've started calling this onion-gate as there are just so many layers to this story – political, span v catalunia, real madrid v barcelona, egos and more.
But all we care about really as punters, particularly as we have Spain as one of our picks for the tournament, is what this does to their chances and does it effect our bets…
The simple answer right now is….that it's just too early to tell. But the Portugal game, as if it needed it, has added a whole new dimension.
But my take so far is this:
- It's still the same players who have been playing so well over the last two years
- The focus, the tactical planning, visualisations will all still be place and learned by the players
- The will to win will still be there
- Hierro is a smart choice and will likely keep a lid on these and remain calm
So my view is that Spain remain very much one of the challengers and my opinion won't change unless i see something to change it. If anything, the drift on the Spain win on Friday, looks tempting at 2.10.
(Conspiracy alert – this was all part of Zidane's master plan to remove one Frances main rivals. The counter argument to that though is that Zidane probably wants Deschamps to have a shocker so he can step into this shoes after the summer)
(Note: all recommended bets are 1 unit / point stake unless clearly stated)
World Cup Day 1 – Best Bet
Well opening match has not exactly presented us with the easiest betting opportunities to get off the mark. According to the FIFA Rankings, these two are the worst teams in the tournament, yet it is amazing to see the impact on odds by being the host country. The markets are currently priced up as
Russia – 1.44
Draw – 4.33
Saudi Arabia – 10
Russia's last victory came back in June last year where they exited the Confederation Cup in the group stage, despite being hosts. Since then they have lost five and drawn just one.
Saudi have lost the last three but I feel they can take a lot more positives from those defeats than the Russians, with 2-1 reverses against Italy and Germany recently. They have also recorded a couple of wins against Algeria and Greece this year.
Based on form I'd be backing the Saudi's or at least the draw. The host factor is a hard one to quantify and an allowance for that needs to be made. The real wild card here is the Saudi manager, Juan Antonio Pizzi, a top notch manager who led Chile to back to back Copa America's. He has made Saudi a lot more assertive on the counter, there were signs of this in the second half of both games against Italy and Germany – I feel this could really cause Russia problems if they don't take control of the game and there are clear weaknesses at the back for the Ruski's
Let's play it a little safe today and go with Saudi Arabia +1 at around 2.10 on the Asian Handicaps.
This article was first published to the Ultimate Stats Betting Pack, World Cup group
A copy of the Ultimate Stats Betting Pack for the 2018 World Cup in Russia available here.
Jon is the Founder and Chief Tipster at Football Advisor and Predictoloy. He started life as data analyst in the digital marketing field before find his true calling in the world of Football and Horse Racing Betting.
Jon has been sharing his professional expertise since 2009 and specialises in using objective data analysis and subjective experience of betting built up over more than a decade of professional betting.
In 2014, Jon also launched (and continues to run) the trusted Football Advisor service service which provides a variety of football and horse racing betting models and portfolios. A few years later, Jon launched the Predictology platform which is the worlds first betting system builder and analyser covering a wealth of football betting related statistics covering more than 200,000 matches.
Jon has also lent his knowledge and expertise to several of the trusted Premium Services offered by the respected Secret Betting Club, including Football Lay Profits. Racing Bet Profits and, most recently, Racing Lay Profits.