World Cup Betting: Day 5

This article was first published to the Ultimate Stats Betting Pack, World Cup group
A copy of the Ultimate Stats Betting Pack for the 2018 World Cup in Russia available here.

World Cup – Latest News

If Saturday was a day of penalties and football tech, then yesterday was the day for shocks, with Germany losing their first opening match since 1982 and Brazil only managing to draw against Switzerland.

Germany were as terrible as Mexico were spirited, while Switzerland managed to set the record for following a player the most in one time, smashing Neymar ten times over the 90 minutes.

Needless to say our forecasts to the matches didn't go as planned, bar Serbia beating Costa Rica but it's early days so no major concerns. The Sweden / South Korea game is a tough one to find value in, while Belgium and England should win and win comfortably today.

We've not even finished the first round of games yet but it's interesting to see how the top teams in the market have performed so far:

  • Brazil – draw
  • Spain – draw
  • France – win
  • Germany – lost
  • Belgium – play today
  • Argentina – draw
  • England – play today
  • Portugal – draw

So with two games to play in that list, only one of the top 8 have won their opening match – and France can probably count themselves lucky on that front – this has certainly increased the chance of a couple of big match ups for the last 16 with an increased likelihood of France v Argentina and / or Brazil v Germany.

(Note: all recommended bets are 1 unit / point stake unless clearly stated)

World Cup Day 5 – Best Bet

England v Tunisia
This is the most likeable England manager and setup at a major tournament in living memory. That doesn't necessarily win you trophies but a quarter final spot is a realistic aim and with all the leading contenders showing they are not infallible so far, who knows.

A win today is vital though for confidence and momentum and they really should be able to see off Tunisia. Let's hope we get more of a France 98 performance (2-0 against today's opponents), rather than a 2010 performance (0-0 v Algeria).

The England win by 2 goals looks a very big price here and I'll be loading up on that.

2 points England -1.5 at 2.44 with Bet Victor

Today's other World Cup games;

Belgium v Panama

Just making it to the World Cup is a victory for Panama and I don't see them achieving much else now that they are here.

Belgium played Costa Rica recently as a warm up for this game and won comfortably 4-1. I wouldn't be surprised to a similar score line here. The Win To Nil market is a little low for my tastes but if you can get the 1.70 with Bet Victor I'd take that.

If you'd like some more tasty odds you could consider the margin of Belgium's victory today. Belgium and over 2.5 goals is a skinny, 1.72-1.75, but if you agree that the most likely outcome is that all three+ goals would need to come from Belgium, you could go to the Asian Handicap Market instead where you can get Belgium -2.5 at a more attractive 2.40-2.50. Even if you took some cover by taking Belgium -2 (meaning you get your money back if Belgium only win by 2, then that is still better value than the Belgium + over 2.5, with odds of 2.07.

Belgium -2.5 at 2.42 with Bet365

Sweden v South Korea

There is no ‘Zlatan' and Sweden will be heavily reliant on Forsberg for their goals. The Swedes have failed to get of the group stage at their last three European Championships, whereas this is the first World Cup since 2006.

South Korea have been in awful form leading up the World Cup, losing their last three friendlies (four out of six, with one win). They have won just one of their last 9 group games at the World Cup, failing to reach the last 16 in the two of the last three attempts.

So there is no real pedigree for us to favour either side going into this and they could quite easily cancel each other out. There is another more general stat which could help us identify a profit opportunity on this game. Unfortunately I have miss placed the exact figure, but we are now, after 11 games, at a record for the most games at the start of a World Cup before seeing a 0-0. It's highly unlikely we'll see that today's other two games, so I'm going to take a small interest in Sweden 0 v 0 South Korea.

Correct Score 0-0 at 6.50

This article was first published to the Ultimate Stats Betting Pack, World Cup group
A copy of the Ultimate Stats Betting Pack for the 2018 World Cup in Russia available here.

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