World Cup Betting: Day 7

This article was first published to the Ultimate Stats Betting Pack, World Cup group
A copy of the Ultimate Stats Betting Pack for the 2018 World Cup in Russia available here.

World Cup – Latest News

The first round of the group games have now been completed and it's a good opportunity for us to take stock and see how we are fairing, both on the daily games and our tournament bets.

We, just like the big tournament hitters, have seen the odd positive outcome, but also our fair share of underwhelming performances. However, it's important that we don't get too disheartened at this stage. Opening matches at the World Cup are littered with false readings, so it's important that we keep our focus and keep doing the right things and assessing games in the right way and striving for value opportunities.

Let me give you a few examples:

  • Last 40 semi-finalists, 8 lost their opening match, while a further 9 drew
  • Spain lost their opening game (1-0 to Switzerland) before going all the way to lift the cup in 2010
  • Bulgaria got smashed 3-0 in their first match of the 94 World Cup (v Nigeria) before become tournament darlings and reaching the semi-finals
  • In 1994, three of the four semi-finalists failed to win their first game
  • In 1982, no semi-finalist won their opening game
  • In hindsight, Germany's loss to Mexico is not all together surprising. Only three reigning champions have won their first game since 1978. Three others drew, with the remainder losing, including Argentina in 1990 (THAT game against Cameroon), before reaching the final

Daily Best Bet

After a week, we are 3.5 units down. Easily redeemable over the next three weeks and if things had gone slightly differently in a couple of games, namely Brazil and England, we'd be in profit.

Pre Tournament Portfolio

  • Kane is into 2nd favourite and there is still plenty of time for the likes of Neymar and Gabriel Jesus to start finding the net
  • As mentioned above, we can't read too much into the opening matches and our view remains the same in the Outrights
  • We'll know more after this round but we still have live chances in a number of our bets here
  • Senegal are looking good so far as our top African pick
  • Croatia, Denmark and Serbia all picked up wins, keeping them in the hunt for the last 16 and potentially the 1/4 final

As mentioned, it is still very early days in the tournament and you really can't read too much into the first week. We're still well positioned in a number of markets and we expect us to kick on as we go in to the second week.

(Note: all recommended bets are 1 unit / point stake unless clearly stated)

World Cup Day 7 – Best Bet

Three-game Multi

We're going to lead today's best bet with a multiple and back all three favourites to return wins today. Spain should have no issues against Iran, who failed to have a shot on target against Morocco (despite winning the game), same for Uruguay who are up against the tournaments worst team in Saudi Arabia. Portugal have the toughest match of the three, but after scoring three (and leading twice) against Spain, they should find a way to win here if putting in a similar performance – would not be surprised to see Ronaldo to bag another couple here.

Uruguay, Spain and Portugal all to win at 2.29

Today's other World Cup games;

Uruguay v Saudi Arabia

This is the lowest price we have seen so far for a team to win. So the question here is not so much IF Uruguay will win but HOW they will win. The Saudi's have failed to score in eight of their last 10 world cup games and did not have a shot on target against Russia. My only concern here is that Saudi can't possibly be as bad as they were in their first game and can be quite pacey in attack, so at similar prices, the Uruguay win and over 2.5 is the call over Uruguay win to nil

Uruguay win and over 2.5 goals at 1.67

Iran v Spain

I could copy paste the preview from the above for this game. It's all about HOW Spain will win. Iran, like Saudi, did not have a shot, the only difference here is that they got the win and have something to defend here.

I can't see Iran scoring but they will hold out as long as they can in the hope of nicking a draw. So we'll reverse our Uruguay bet and go for Spain to Win to Nil

Spain win to nil at 1.67

Portugal v Morocco

Morocco were dominant against Iran and it was an impressive performance aside from the fact that they could not turn that possession into goals, which ultimately cost them.

Portugal played an equal role in one of the games of the tournament so far, with Ronaldo banging a hat-trick. They need to ensure that game does not count for nothing by picking up the win here. They don't want to be heading into their final game against Iran with 2 points (or wose) and a ‘must win' game.

I'm expecting Portugal to call on their experience when lifting Euro 2016. It wont be easy but they will find a way to win here.

Portugal win at 1.62

This article was first published to the Ultimate Stats Betting Pack, World Cup group
A copy of the Ultimate Stats Betting Pack for the 2018 World Cup in Russia available here.

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