Portfolio Betting in Practice – Simple Profit, Minimal Effort
Throughout this month, I have written a series on portfolio betting.
Hopefully, you will have implemented this strategy already; and if you haven’t, why not? It is the way that the professionals bet, and if they can make a living from sports betting, they must be doing something right!
Diversification is Easy!
Of those who don’t get around to creating a betting portfolio, the main excuse is the illusion of difficulty. They seem to believe that it is necessary to go into Warren Buffett levels of complexity (and the man himself will tell you that simplicity is key). It isn’t a surprise in a way. As a general rule, people think that making money has to be complicated. The notion that a simple betting strategy can work long term is something they can’t comprehend.
Their mindset is: “if it is too easy, it isn’t worth doing.” Then they either bet without rhyme or reason or proceed to create the world’s most obtuse betting strategy which inevitably fails. You can begin with just three different ‘assets,’ although I would recommend five or more. Make sure you include at least one slow earner that wins long-term and a medium risk asset. It is up to you to decide whether you should add a ‘high-risk’ strategy.
One of the many great aspects of portfolio betting is the ability to stick to one sport but still create a diverse selection. For those who don’t have the time, patience, or even the know-how to build a portfolio, Predictology is a life-saver. It has a wide range of tried, tested, and profitable systems.
Subscribers can select a handful of systems and combine them into a portfolio capable of providing a long-term profit. I am taking the liberty of showing you a few to see what I am talking about.
System 1
The first system is fiendishly simple: You bet on over 2.5 goals on selected Premier League games. As you can see, it has worked for a very long time with a total ROI of 9.1% and a unit profit of 54.07 since 2010. It has been profitable in seven of the nine seasons to date, including the last four in a row. With a win rate or 55.4%, this system would be classified as ‘medium’ risk.
System 2
System #2 involves backing teams to win at long odds in the English and German first division. With a win rate of just 30.8%, this is a high-risk system.
System 3
System #3 also relates to teams winning but at even higher odds than in #2. It includes games from the Belgium Jupiler League, the Portuguese first division, the Greek first division, and the top three divisions in England. With a win rate of 38.5%, this is also a high-risk asset.
System 4
Every betting portfolio needs a low-risk asset, and we have one here in the form of betting on heavy Spanish La Liga favourites. With a win rate of over 80%, you won’t experience too many long losing streaks. It is an important addition because it will keep losses to a minimum in the event that your other assets are not profitable.
System 5
Our final system is another medium risk entry with a win rate of 53.5%. It involves Asian Handicap bets on matches in England’s third and fourth divisions. As you can see from the screenshot, the League Two portion of the system has performed poorly in the last two seasons. However, the League One aspect ensures the system turns an overall profit.
Putting it All Together
As you can see by looking at all five systems, some of them have more than one bet type within the same system. Such assets are the epitome of diversification and can really keep you going when a couple of your systems are losing. Here is a look at the last three seasons when the performance of the portfolio is combined. It is easier to analyse it in ‘per unit’ terms as it gives you a good idea of how profitable a good portfolio can be.
2016/2017
| System Number | Unit Profit |
| #1 | 7.21 |
| #2 | 10.05 |
| #3 | 41.24 |
| #4 | 12.04 |
| #5 | 6.43 |
| Total Profit | 76.97 |
2017/2018
| System Number | Unit Profit |
| #1 | 9.35 |
| #2 | 32.18 |
| #3 | 23.73 |
| #4 | -0.16 |
| #5 | 3.23 |
| Total Profit | 68.33 |
2018/2019
| System Number | Unit Profit |
| #1 | 3.47 |
| #2 | -4.63 |
| #3 | 21.93 |
| #4 | 1.41 |
| #5 | 1.6 |
| Total Profit | 23.78 |
As you can see, when you combine all five systems, you would be in profit for each of the last three years. The total profit since the 2016/2017 season is 169.08 units. If each unit is worth £25, you would be in profit to the tune of £4,227.
You can also see the real value of having a betting portfolio. One of the systems had a loss in the last two seasons but were propped up by a profit in every other system. If you go into detail in certain systems, you also see the benefit of trying to diversify within your system.
System #3 involves games from six different football leagues. It is an unpredictable sport, so it isn’t always a good idea to throw all of your eggs in one basket. Since the beginning of the 2013/2014, Predictology has made over 770 bets across these leagues at average odds of 3.28.
It may seem overly complex to wager on so many leagues, but the benefits of this strategy are seen in the 2018/2019 season among others. The Premier League portion has seen a loss of 6.12 units, while the Championship and Portuguese leagues have also seen losses. However, big wins in Greece, England’s League One, and Belgium, mean the system as a whole has a profit of almost 22 units!
Final Thoughts on Betting Portfolios
Hopefully, you can now see the benefit of selecting several assets to place in your portfolio. Even if you have a bad run with one or two assets, the good performance of others will make the entire exercise worthwhile. Feel free to add horse racing, boxing, tennis, or any other sport you like. Just make sure you have at least one low, medium, and high-risk asset.
Jon is the Founder and Chief Tipster at Football Advisor and Predictoloy. He started life as data analyst in the digital marketing field before find his true calling in the world of Football and Horse Racing Betting.
Jon has been sharing his professional expertise since 2009 and specialises in using objective data analysis and subjective experience of betting built up over more than a decade of professional betting.
In 2014, Jon also launched (and continues to run) the trusted Football Advisor service service which provides a variety of football and horse racing betting models and portfolios. A few years later, Jon launched the Predictology platform which is the worlds first betting system builder and analyser covering a wealth of football betting related statistics covering more than 200,000 matches.
Jon has also lent his knowledge and expertise to several of the trusted Premium Services offered by the respected Secret Betting Club, including Football Lay Profits. Racing Bet Profits and, most recently, Racing Lay Profits.