Saturday Night’s Alright… For Betting (So is Sunday!) Plus The Horses
It is becoming clear that several of the games I look at are not coming into play. Therefore, I am going to focus on matches that are actually likely to be available! For the record, CSKA Moscow ladies laid a massive egg by only winning 2-1; in a game where they had over 20 corners and 30 shots! There is no accounting for such dreadful finishing sometimes; it is always a risk when betting on lower-level football.
1 – Create Football Eyecatchers
At the Race Advisor, members have the option of selecting horses that get their attention as an ‘eyecatcher.’ If you see a promising horse in a race, you can save it, and the software will let you know when the horse is running again, so you don’t miss out.
You may not have this software, but you can create your own version of football eyecatchers for the summer. For example, the Latvian second division is well underway, and by now, we know the good and crap teams.
Balvu, Grobina, and Dinamo Riga, all have pathetic away records (New Project also lose every away game but only by a small margin). Between the three sides, I have mentioned, they have won 2 of 19 away games, lost 17, scored 14 and conceded 96! On the other side of the coin, league leaders Tukums have won all 7 home matches; scoring 37 and conceding 1.
Unfortunately, there are no viable bets this weekend as all three rubbish sides are at home and Tukums are at home to second-placed Smiltene. However, it is worth taking notes of any leagues and teams that catch your eye. It will save you a LOT of research time in the long run.
2 – Going Back to Norway
Norway’s lower leagues have often borne fruit; a fact I have written about at length in the past. As is the case in Latvia, the Norwegian leagues are taking shape, so we have a better idea of who is likely to perform abysmally. Sadly, it seems as if the bookmakers are catching on!
Even so, it is hard to stay away from Lysekloster vs. Valdres on Saturday at 3 pm. The home side is okay at home, but it is the away side who stink. 37 goals conceded in 6 away losses; 74 goals conceded in 12 games! It depends on the odds line here, but anything less than 6 match goals would be a surprise since Valdres’ games average 7.
In the same division, Vard vs. Os has the potential for goals at 5 pm on Sunday. A home win is by far the most likely outcome as Vard are 6 for 6 at home with 22 goals scored and only 2 conceded. Os’ away record is FAR better than its home form! 27 goals in 6 away games is superb, but be warned; this record includes 19 goals in 3 games against cannon fodder.
In Norway’s second division, Tromsdalen is the sure-fire relegation candidates. Unfortunately, they play Strommen, the next worst team this Sunday. However, we can put them on the Eyecatchers list!
3 – German Lower Leagues Are Back!
In fact, it is only the German Bundesliga that has not yet returned. At the beginning of the season, it is always worth watching strong sides from last year who didn’t get promoted, and weak sides that stayed up by virtue of other sides being crap. Also, of interest are newly promoted teams and sides that were relegated last season.
A prime example is Paloma who has been promoted to the fifth tier in the Oberliga Hamburg after three years away in a 9:45 am game on Sunday. Their opponents, Sasel, are a middling side at best but did give hidings to some poor sides last season. It is perhaps best to wait for results to see if certain sides are showing signs of being awful; or else you can monitor games in-play if you have the time.
Oberliga Hamburg averaged almost 4 goals a game last season. Pinneberg was the worst side; conceding 199 goals in 34 games! Find this season’s Pinneberg early and reap the rewards before the bookies become wise to the situation!
1. Enable Under Threat?
John Gosden is bracing himself for a potentially tricky tactical battle with Ballydoyle on Saturday, with the trainer wary about the threats posed to Enable by her talented opposition in the King George VI & Queen Elizabeth Stakes.
2. A Regal Performance A Reality?
Connections of Regal Reality hope he can make the most of having his sights lowered in the Sky Bet York Stakes.
Despite being fractious in the preliminaries, Sir Michael Stoute’s charge ran out an impressive winner on his first start over a mile and a quarter in the Brigadier Gerard Stakes at Sandown in May – and he then returned to the Esher venue for the Coral-Eclipse three weeks ago.
3. The Stats
Charlie Appleby is our man for today's racing. He's got a strong record at Ascot with a 15% strike rate. His horses are showing a 76% running to form and his recent strike rate (the last 14 days) of 21% is impressive enough. Quite rightly, he heads the market with most of his horses and I'll be backing them all.
13:50 – Summer Romance
14:25 – Wings Of Time
16:15 – Al Dabaran
16:35 – African Jazz
We'll be back next week with more insights into the footy and the horse's world and let us know what you're backing in the comments 🙂
Patrick & Eddie for the Football Advisor