Saturday Column – The Footy and The Horses
The Footy
After a week of international football, we welcome back the ‘major’ European leagues. While there were some turgid matches during the break, the England versus Kosovo and Germany versus Netherlands games offered goal fests. A cursory glance at the Premier League fixtures suggests possible high scores for Liverpool and Manchester City, while the Manchester United versus Leicester game is potentially the most intriguing matchup.
1 – Kolmonen Killers
I return to the Finnish fourth tier, primarily because I was able to find evidence of a couple of likely in-play games on Bet365! At 1 pm on Saturday, PeKa plays HaPk. The main reason for considering this game is HaPk’s awful away form. They have lost 8 of their 9 away games, scoring 8 and conceding 31. The -2 handicap should be above Evens and has a realistic chance of winning.
Kontu versus Viikingit’s B team at 12 pm on Saturday is a likely massacre. Kontu has scored 36 goals in 9 home games, Viikingit B has scored 23 but conceded 42 in 10 away games. More pertinently, Viikingit’s last five away games have seen four losses by a combined scored of 31-3! If Kontu click, they could score 7+.
2 – Dortmund Versus Leverkusen
Fans of the Germany Bundesliga suggest it is a more enjoyable league to watch than the English Premier League. While recent Champions League meetings suggest there is a gap in overall quality between the two leagues in England’s favour, Bundesliga games are often exciting, fast-paced affairs.
The match between Borussia Dortmund and Bayer Leverkusen could be one of the highlights of the European club football weekend. Leverkusen is unbeaten in nine league matches but may find it too much to handle at Dortmund. The away side have conceded 3+ in each of their last four visits to Signal Iduna Park.
As such, the 2.62 on offer for 3+ Dortmund goals is worth looking into. Over 3.5 match goals at 2.10 and even over 4.5 match goals at 3.50 are possibilities in what is likely to be an entertaining match.
3 – Random Titbits
My suspicion is that Cardiff MU is overpriced at 6.00 to beat The New Saints in the Welsh Premier League at 3 pm on Saturday. Cardiff has won their last 10 home matches in the league and have a win and two draws in their last three home encounters with TNS. The Saints had a remarkable 10-1 win away to Aberystwyth but lost 3-1 away to Bala Town already this season.
The Spanish Tercera (fourth tier) often has mismatches and also games where the goal line is lower than it should be. An example is the Yague versus Calasancio game in Group 16 at 5 pm on Saturday. Over 2.5 goals is 1.55, which means over 3.5 goals will probably be 2.40 in-play. Five of Yague’s last seven home games have had 4+ goals. Four of Calasancio’s last six aways have had 4+ goals.
While I’m not necessarily suggesting that you bet on this particular game (Yague won the corresponding fixture 3-0 last season), I am saying that the Tercera throws up value overs bets. It is something worth looking into for the rest of the season.
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The Horses
1 – Harriet Bethell ‘talking sense and remembering lots' after horror fall
Harriet Bethell, who was left fighting for her life after suffering serious head injuries in a fall on the gallops, has woken from her coma.
The trainer has delighted doctors with her progress and has been moved to a rehabilitation hospital.
2 – St Leger: Franny Norton aims for Doncaster glory aged 49
St Leger week started with a hoo-haa over Theresa May's honours list, but big-race owner Paul Dean has his own ideas on knighthoods.
Sir Ron Priestley, rated a lively contender against Logician, Sir Dragonet and co. in flat racing's oldest and final Classic race of the season staged at Doncaster, is among a string of horses Dean has named after friends to whom he's also granted ‘his own kind' of knighthood.
3 – The Stats
Andrew Balding is our man for today's stats section. He's showing an impressive 19% strike rate for the last two weeks, a 21% strike rate for the course at Chester and an RTF of 63%.
He's got four runners for tomorrow and I'll be having a few quid on them on all 😉
14:05 – Grace and Danger
14:40 – Diocletian
15:50 – Pass The Gin
16:25 – Spirit Warning
We'll be back next week with more insights into the footy and the horse's world and let us know what you're backing in the comments 🙂
Patrick & Eddie for the Football Advisor
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