Diary Of A Football Trader – Issue 8
Diary Of A Pro Football Trader – Issue 8
Introduction
Welcome to the latest edition of “Diary Of A Pro Trader”, you can read all the past Issues here.
At his request, we have to keep is identity a secret, but here is what we can tell you about our new Pro Trader
ProTrader started his career and fascination with the financial markets as an Index Analyst at FTSE. He has since consulted for 15 years for some of the top Financial Institutions and Investment Banks in the world, where he specialized in financial instruments, pricing data, trading platforms and risk management solutions. He first started trading sports markets in early 2000, after the introduction and discovery of Betfair. He now trades the financial markets whilst working on entrepreneurial ventures with a focus on sports trading apps and e-commerce. He lives with his wife and young daughter between their homes of London, Sardinia, Odessa and Sochi. In his spare time, he is writing a book, enjoys outdoor pursuits with his family, learning Russian and of course, trading football markets.
Each week, ProTrader will be sharing his trading exploits and insights from his previous weeks trading and, if we're lucky, from time to time he'll also be giving a few pointers on upcoming trades that he'll be targeting.
This is something new for us but we are sure you are going to enjoy and benefit from ProTrader's insights.
So please do show your love and appreciation in the comments (plus any questions and suggestions), so that both Football Advisor and ProTrader know this is something you want to keep seeing in the future.
Without further ado, I'll hand over to Pro Trader.
Saturday, 26th September, 2020
It’s almost like a rush of relief when Saturday comes and the English League games are back on. Familiarity is a strong thing, but I’ve learned that applying the same formula of analysis, match selection, market selection, entry and exit points etc. – can be transferred to most leagues (with a few tweaks here and there). However, today is Saturday and there’s four Premier League games taking place, at staggered times. This effectively means all can be traded if I’m prepared to sit for a minimum off 7 hours following them! A difficult proposal to negotiate, especially on a weekend if you have a significant other or family that also wants your attention!
However, the matches targeted today are:
- Brighton & Hove Albion v Manchester United
- Crystal Palace v Everton
Summary of Market Trading
Brighton v Manchester United
BTTS
Nearly half-way through the first-half, I take a lay position on ‘No’ at 1.92 for £50. Ten minutes later I’m able to increase this position at 1.62 for a further £25. Brighton scored shortly after this position was placed, and Manchester United scored 3 minutes later.
This market was then closed automatically, banking £75 profit.
Crystal Palace v Everton
Match Odds
From my analysis, I was expecting Everton to win this match. Therefore, in the first half, I took a back position on them for £50 for 2.32. As Everton took the lead in 10 minutes, I later close the position for £38 profit.
Conclusion
I wasn’t overly confident on either of these matches, or what the outcome could be. This is the Premier League, and as we have seen many times, the unexpected can occur. I started this post with saying how I was happy that the league was back. But now after following many different leagues recently, it just shows how difficult it to gauge the English Premier league from a trading perspective. Which basically means I think it is better to watch these unpredictable games than to trade them. However, today I managed to bank £113 profit.
Sunday, 27th September, 2020
The matches that I’m interested in today are three English Premier league games:
- Sheffield United v Leeds United
- Tottenham Hotspur v Newcastle United
- West Ham United v Wolverhamton Wanderers
Summary of Market Trading
Sheffield United v Leeds United
Analysis carried out pointed to a close game resulting in a Leeds win most probable.
Checking the Predictology recommendations also confirmed a Leeds United win was a good-value position to take:
At kick-off, I take a conservative back position on Leeds for £35 at their starting price of 2.5. Early in the second half, with the score still 0-0, I take two positions on laying the draw. My rationale here, is that due to the tightness of the game, it appeared that either team could now score which could prove to be the winning goal. Leeds eventually found that goal, and these positions were then closed banking £92 profit.
Correct Score
At kick-off, I took a 1-1 position at 7.4, almost as a semi-hedge on the Leeds match odds position. With the score ending 0-1, this produced an £8 loss.
Tottenham Hotspur v Newcastle United
Match Odds
I started this match with taking a lay position on Tottenham at 1.38 for £65. 27 mins in to the game, it appears that Tottenham are looking threatening, and so I close the position for a £10 loss. Tottenham duly went on and scored in 25th minute.
Early in the second-half, Newcastle are looking more dangerous and have the majority of possession. I am expecting them to now reply with an equalizer, and so take another lay position on Tottenham for £70 at 1.15. I considered these odds to be exceptionally low considering the score was just 1-0. Newcastle were now looking likely to score, and with some key substitutions being made in the match (Son off for Spurs, Carroll on for Newcastle), I felt confident to increase this position at prices of 1.12 and 1.1.
A late penalty to Newcastle was then awarded and scored, and at the final whistle with the score 1-1. These trades produced £100 profit, even though my liability was just £25 in total on this market
West Ham United v Wolverhamton Wanderers
Match Odds
Just after kick-off, I back West Ham at an amazing price of 3.6 for £30. TBH, I can’t believe this price was available and wished I’d backed more. I then lay Wolves for £25 at 2.46. West Ham scored in 17 minutes and then never looked back, running out 4-0 winners. These trades were left alone and £75 profit was banked.
BTTS
Following my analysis, I began laying BTTS – ‘Yes’, at various points in the match as the price moved. As the match continued and both teams had not scored, I then began to close these positions incrementally. In the end £24 profit was banked.
Under / Over 3.5 Goals
Following on from the impressive start from West Ham, and believing that Wolves had a goal in them, I traded this market, producing a £33 profit.
Conclusion
These were quite unpredictable matches to be fair, but in the end with perseverance they produced £241 profit.
Monday, 28th September, 2020
There’s another couple of English Premier league matches taking place today, however the one that I’ve identified as having the best trading potential is:
- Liverpool v Arsenal
Summary of Market Trading
Liverpool v Arsenal
Match Odds
Before kick-off, I placed a lay position on Liverpool for £60 at 1.52, and then increased this position for £25 at 1.49. However, with Liverpool pressing extremely high, harassing Arsenal off the ball and creating chances, I changed my mind on this position, close it (for a £3 loss) and take a back position on Liverpool for £100 at 1.48. Moments later Arsenal against the run of play score!
Liverpool’s price now hits 2.24, and I take this opportunity to increase my position for a further £50. Moments later (3 minutes), Liverpool equalize and 6 minutes after that, they score a second. Shortly afterwards and fearing Arsenal could equalize themselves, I close the position for a £70 profit.
Over / Under 3.5 Goals
Before kick-off, I took a lay position on overs at 1.85 for £50. I then increased this position at 1.64 and again at 1.46. As the first goal went in, this position was showing around scratch. With the second moments later it was in profit. I decided to let it run further, expecting more goals. After the fourth goal was scored, this market closed and £110 profit was banked. Thank you Jota, great debut.
Conclusion
A decent match, very tradeable and more could have made more if I had let my initial lay position sit a moment longer before reversing. These things happen, but all that matters when trading football matches is maximizing profits and minimizing loses. In the end, this match banked £180 profit.
Tuesday, 29th September, 2020
There’s a few matches taking place today, however the one’s I’ve ear-marked following analysis are:
- Dynamo Kiev v Gent (Champion League qualifier)
- Real Sociedad v Valencia (Spanish La Liga)
Summary of Market Trading
Dynamo Kiev v Gent
Match Odds
Expecting a strong attacking performance from the home-side, earlier in the day I took a back position on Kiev for £100 at 2.02.
Less than 10 minutes after kick-off, Kiev scored. They followed up with a second before half-time, and a third on the 49th minute. This position was looking secure, and with no reply from Gent, £102 profit was banked at the final whistle.
Real Sociedad v Valencia
Match analysis was pointing towards a low-scoring game, with possibly an away win.
Over / Under 2.5
Since I was expecting a low-scoring game, just after kick-off I took a lay position on overs at 1.89 for £50. Later in to the second half with the score 0-1, I closed this position for a £46 profit.
Conclusion
A relatively straight-forward couple of matches, with just one trade on each, and only one being closed out before full-time. However, sometimes simplicity is best and is definitely advisable if you are just starting out in trading. It’s less stressful, and can be managed just using the Betfair console, so perfect for beginners. This approach produced £148 profit on the day.
Wednesday, 30th September, 2020
There’s a variety of matches being played today from the European Leagues, English League cup as well as Champions League qualifiers. The match that I’ve targeted as having most interest in is:
- Midtjylland v Slavia Praha (Champion League qualifier)
Summary of Market Trading
Midtjylland v Slavia Praha
Match Odds
Analysis undertaken produced mixed results, but pointed to a tight game. With a slightly superior attack though, I expected a Slavia Praha win. This match also interested me because the price on Slavia Praha was fairly high. They also won the first leg at home, and I imagined they would be keen to finish the job here. Before kick-off I took a back position on the Czech champions for £102 at 2.98, and 3 minutes into the match, they score. 10 minutes into the second-half, with the score still 0-1, I semi-reluctantly close the position for £103 profit.
However, this proved to be the correct decision, because 10 minutes later Midtjylland equalize, and then proceeded to score 3 more times!
Over / Under 2.5
I was expecting a low-scoring game and so 10 minutes in to the match took a lay position on overs at 1.51 for £50. The early goal made this price appealing, and by half-time with the score still 0-1, this position was showing good profit. However, once Midtjylland equalized this was soon wiped out. At this point I imagined a tighter second-half ending in 1-1, and so the position was left open. Once the third goal was scored, this position produced a £25.5 loss.
Conclusion
I was surprised by the end result of this match, even though some steams of analysis (such as Predictology) were predicting many key aspects of this outcome.
However, with Midtjylland scoring their second goal (a penalty) it gave them extra impetus and knocked the wind out of Slavia. Fortunately, my main trade was closed and £77 profit was still banked from this match. This again goes to show how trading football markets is advantageous over straight-out betting. Had I placed my match odds trade as a bet on Slavia, my entire stake would have been lost.
Thursday, 1st October, 2020
There’s a host of Europa League qualification games going on, three Spanish La Liga games and three English League Cup games. However, the matches I’m most interested in are:
- Malmo FF v Granada (Europa League qualification)
- Liverpool v Arsenal (English League Cup)
Summary of Market Trading
Malmo v Granada
Match Odds
Analysis for this match pointed sharply to a Granada win. However, watching the start of the first half, it did appear that Malmo were definitely in the game and were looking for an early goal. After Granada scored in the 30th minute, I took a lay position on them at 1.36 for £100. Less than 15 minutes later, Malmo equalize and the price on Granada shoots up and I close this position for £50 profit.
Over / Under 1.5
This match started with an expectation of a low-scoring match in the markets. I backed overs in this market at 2.04 for £100 with the score 0-0. Fortuitously, Granada scored 3 minutes later, and just before half-time, this was automatically closed when Malmo equalized and the score was 1-1, banking £102 profit.
Liverpool v Arsenal
Match Odds
I took a tentative back position on Arsenal at kick-off for £50 at 2.76, and a few minutes later backed the draw at 3.6 for £25. At 30 minutes in and fearing a Liverpool goal was coming (Liverpool have a tendency to score late in the first-half), I had second thoughts about these positions and closed them for a £2 loss.
Over / Under 2.5
Just after kick-off, I layed overs for £50 at 1.67, and then again for £20 at 1.83. Just before half-time with the score 0-0, I closed these position to bank £38 profit.
Conclusion
Both of these matches produced profit from using the same principle: going against market sentiment.
With the first match, few goals were expected, so even a simple back of over 1.5 produced profits (the match ended 1-3).
The same can be said with the Liverpool v Arsenal game – goals WERE expected, yet it ended 0-0. Had I let my position of laying over 2.5 run, greater profit could have been made. The fact is, cup games are unpredictable, and will often surprise. It is delicate and sometimes difficult balancing act between knowing when such positions should be taken, or whether the majority are right.
From following these two matches, £188 profit was banked on the day.
Friday, 2nd October, 2020
I looked at trading an Italian Serie A match today. The rationale was that I haven’t covered this league for some time, and with winter approaching we will soon move back to Italy to escape the cold winter that can come where we currently are. Agreed, this isn’t a good basis for trading a football match, but practice is practice.
Summary of Market Trading
Fiorentina v Sampdoria
Match Odds
From my analysis, Fiorentina should win this match. I take a back position on them at 1.72 for £100. Of course, Sampdoria score first which causes a few further trades back and forth as the match progresses. In the end, this uneventful encounter results in a £10 loss with the score 1-2.
Conclusion
The point made at the beginning of this issue was made in jest, but it’s actually quite important, and I imagine many starting out in trading will experience similar resistance this way. Firstly, most people (including friends, family and significant others) will not understand what you are doing. This is pretty much certain. And unfortunately the matches with most opportunity (or those that you are familiar with) occur over a weekend.
This is now an added headache to negotiate, since you shouldn’t have to explain what you are doing or why, especially to those that will only understand ‘this is gambling’.
I plan on writing a starting guide next week on trading next week, and this will definitely include a sub-section on how to counter against resistance to your trading goal, since it’s an important aspect to consider. This happens in many fields, such as anything artistic or where understanding by others is low, because it’s unconventional. But at the moment, with the coronavirus, it’s more important than ever to develop a second skill and income. And learning how to trade smartly with the right tools will give you that, if you give it patience and follow the basic rules that I will outline clearly next week.
Anyway, this week of football trading banked a total profit of £947, tax-free, minus 5% commission.
ProTrader started his career and fascination with the financial markets as an Index Analyst at FTSE. He has since consulted for 15 years for some of the top Financial Institutions and Investment Banks in the world, where he specialized in financial instruments, pricing data, trading platforms and risk management solutions. He first started trading sports markets in early 2000, after the introduction and discovery of Betfair. He now trades the financial markets whilst working on entrepreneurial ventures with a focus on sports trading apps and e-commerce. In his spare time, he is writing a series of books soon to be published, enjoys outdoor pursuits with his family, learning Russian and of course, trading football markets.
