Diary Of A Football Trader – Issue 13
Diary of a Football Trader
Welcome to the latest edition of “Diary Of A Pro Trader”, you can read all the past Issues here.
At his request, we have to keep is identity a secret, but here is what we can tell you about our new Pro Trader
ProTrader started his career and fascination with the financial markets as an Index Analyst at FTSE. He has since consulted for 15 years for some of the top Financial Institutions and Investment Banks in the world, where he specialized in financial instruments, pricing data, trading platforms and risk management solutions. He first started trading sports markets in early 2000, after the introduction and discovery of Betfair. He now trades the financial markets whilst working on entrepreneurial ventures with a focus on sports trading apps and e-commerce. He lives with his wife and young daughter between their homes of London, Sardinia, Odessa and Sochi. In his spare time, he is writing a book, enjoys outdoor pursuits with his family, learning Russian and of course, trading football markets.
Each week, ProTrader will be sharing his trading exploits and insights from his previous weeks trading and, if we're lucky, from time to time he'll also be giving a few pointers on upcoming trades that he'll be targeting.
This is something new for us but we are sure you are going to enjoy and benefit from ProTrader's insights.
So please do show your love and appreciation in the comments (plus any questions and suggestions), so that both Football Advisor and ProTrader know this is something you want to keep seeing in the future.
Saturday, 24th October, 2020
All of the major European Leagues are in action today. The matches that I will be looking at are:
- West Ham United v Manchester City
- Barcelona v Real Madrid
- Manchester United v Chelsea
Summary of Market Trading
West Ham United v Manchester City
Over / Under 2.5
My analysis pointed towards a low-scoring game (much against market sentiment), and almost 12 hours before kick-off the price on overs in this market was just 1.45, and so I took a lay position for £100. Although West Ham scored in the 18th minute, the pace of the game was still very slow and so I decided to leave this position open. With the match ending 1-1, £100 profit was banked.
Match Odds
Putting West Ham favoritism aside, I did believe that Man City would not win here. At kick-off I placed a low speculative lay position on City at 1.5 for £25. With West Ham scoring first, and even with City equalizing in the second-half, this position was left open and banked £25 profit at the final whistle.
Barcelona v Real Madrid
Not wanting to miss the ‘El Classico’ match between the two Spanish teams, I decided to take a look at this, but mostly from an entertainment perspective and to see how the teams performed prior to their upcoming mid-week Champions League games.
This type of game is difficult to call, and so instead decided to look tentatively at the goals market.
Over / Under 3.5
Shortly after kick-off, I placed a lay position on overs at 1.29 for £100. Later in the second-half with the score 1-1, I closed the position for £40 profit. However, should this had been left to run £100 would have been banked.
Manchester United v Chelsea
BTTS
I imagined that this could be a very tight and cagey affair, with neither team wishing to make a mistake. This is probably going to go down as the dullest match of the season though, but laying BTTS produced £50 profit.
Unfortunately, this was the most exciting part of this match. If you happened to watch it, I’m sure you’d agree.
Overall, the matches and markets traded today produced £215 profit.
Sunday, 25th October, 2020
There’s more English Premier League games on today, and the matches I’ll be looking at are:
- Southampton v Everton
- Wolverhampton Wanderers v Newcastle United
Southampton v Everton
Match Odds
From analysis and having watched Southampton play a few games recently, their price of 3.25 at kick-off was too high to pass up.
I took a back position on them for £32, and a few minutes later increased this for £25. After Southampton scored, I closed this for a £51 profit. In hindsight (a glorious thing), this could have been left to run to maximize returns, but I was expecting an Everton reply soon after. This didn’t materialize, and Southampton ran out 2-0 winners.
Correct Score
With the game still 0-0, I took a position in this market for 1-1, and later after Southampton scored for 2-0. The first wasn’t traded since it was a hedge, even after Southampton were 1-0 up, since I had backed Southampton in the match odds market. The 2-0 was speculative, but justifiably left to run. In the end, this market produced £30 profit.
Wolverhampton Wanderers v Newcastle United
Match Odds
Before kick-off, I opened a back position on Newcastle for £50 at 5.2. Analysis showed that this represented huge value, considering especially that home advantage is less relevant at the moment. Just before half-time I increase this position at 6.6. With Wolves scoring first late on, this position was showing negative, and even Newcastle’s late equalizer did not stop this ending with a £55 loss.
Over / Under 1.5
Before kick-off and believing this would be a low-scoring encounter, I took a lay position on overs at 1.51 for £50. In to the second-half, the price on this market hadn’t moved as much as I anticipated, and so fearing late goals I close the trade for £26 profit.
Overall, the matches and markets traded today produced £52 profit.
Monday, 26th October, 2020
Another night of Premier League action, with two matches being played:
- Brighton v West Brom
- Burnley v Tottenham
Brighton v West Bromwich Albion
Match Odds
After Brighton scored (via an own goal) just before half-time, I took a lay position on them for £55 at 1.25. After West Brom equalized, I closed this position for a £41 profit.
Burnley v Tottenham
Over / Under 2.5
Expecting a low-scoring match, just after kick-off I took a lay position on overs at 1.92 for £50. As the second-half got underway and the score 0-0, I closed the position for £29 profit.
Over / Under 1.5
30 minutes in to the match and with a low-scoring game unfolding, I took a lay position on overs at 1.56 for £50. Again, as the second-half was in its early stages I closed the position for £14 profit.
Correct Score
I took small back positions on 0-0 and 0-1 and later traded them out for £19 profit.
Overall, the matches and markets traded produced £103 profit.
Tuesday, 27th October, 2020
Tonight there’s European Champions League matches taking place, and I have targeted the following games:
- Shakhtar Donetsk v Internazionale
- Olympique Marseille v Manchester City
Shakhtar Donetsk v Internazionale
Match Odds
Before the match started, I began taking positions on laying Inter, which I increased when their price dropped further. Overall I had a £150 position, at average odds of 1.54. As the match progressed in to the second-half and still 0-0, I closed the position for £69 profit.
Over / Under 2.5
Expecting a low-scoring game this time (as opposed to the 5-0 Inter win last time they met), I took several lay positions on overs at an average of 1.50 for £105. Just over 30 minutes in to the match, I closed for £32 profit. Had this been left to run, with the match ending 0-0, £105 profit could have been banked.
Marseille v Manchester City
Half-Time / Full-Time
Just after kick-off, I took a back position on Man City / Man City for £50 at 2.04, since I wasn’t keen on the low price in the match odds market. Man City scored in the 18th minute, and with the price now dropping to 1.1, I closed the position 30 minutes in to the match for £47 profit.
Over / Under 2.5
Expecting goals in the game, just after kick-off I took a back position on overs for £50 at 1.9. When the third goal was scored this position closed banking £45 profit.
Overall, these two matches traded produced £193 profit.
Thursday, 28th October, 2020
Tonight there’s further Champions League matches taking place. Being unavailable to participate with the earlier kick-off matches, I selected the following games:
- Juventus v Barcelona
- Manchester United v RB Leipzig
Juventus v Barcelona
Match Odds
After witnessing Barcelona being comfortably beaten by Real Madrid at the weekend, I was expecting Juventus to also win this tie at home. I took a back position on Juventus for £25 at 3. With Barcelona scoring in the 14th minute and expecting Juventus to reply, I took several lay positions on Barcelona. However, Barcelona won the match (through some dubious refereeing decisions) and a £56 loss was made as a result.
Manchester United v RB Leipzig
Over / Under 2.5
I didn’t actively watch this game because it coincided with the above match, but I was following commentary. I took a position on overs at 1.9 for £40. With the game ending 5-0, this match produced £40 profit.
Overall, these two matches traded produced a £16 loss.
Thursday, 29th October, 2020
Tonight we have a host of Europa League matches taking place. There are several matches where it appears certain markets offer value. The approach here will be similar to the above when games are taking place simultaneously, with monitoring the score / commentary and looking at a smaller number of markets with conservative trades.
Real Sociedad v Napoli
Match Odds
Just after kick-off I took a back position on Napoli at 3.4 for £25. After Napoli scored the only goal of the match, I closed this position and banked £26 profit.
Roma v CSFK Sofia
Over / Under 2.5
Earlier in the day I took a lay position on overs at 1.6 for £55. With the match nearing the end and the score 0-0, I closed the position for £47 profit.
Lille v Celtic
Match Odds
My analysis for this game pointed to oppose a Lille win. At kick-off, I took a lay position on Lille for £30 at 2.06. With Celtic 2-0 up in the 32nd minute, I closed the position to bank £26 profit.
Sivasspor v Maccabi Tel Aviv
Match Odds
Analysis for this game pointed to an away win. Shortly after kick-off, I took a back position on Maccabi for £22 at 3.3. Sivasspor scored first, but Maccabi came back to score twice and I closed the position for £41 profit.
Overall trading these matches, although quite conservatively produced £140 profit.
Friday, 30th October, 2020
Tonight it’s the return of a Friday night Premier League match to kick-off the weekend’s action, starting with Wolverhampton Wanderers v Crystal Palace.
Wolves v Crystal Palace
Analysis pointed to a Wolves win – the main market that I am interested in for this match.
Match Odds
Before kick-off I took a position in the market backing Wolves at 2.14 for £55. I actually intended to increase this position, but with Wolves scoring in the 18th minute, their price dropped. 10 minutes later Wolves scored a second, and this market was left open to bank £63 profit at the final whistle.
BTTS
In to the second half, I took a speculative position on BTTS – ‘No’ at 1.63 for £26. With the match ending 2-0, this position produced £16 profit.
Although not traded extensively, this match produced £79 profit.
Conclusion
In total, this week produced £766 profit from the matches traded (minus 5% Betfair commission). The drop in profits from the previous week was disappointing, but understandable considering there were no short-priced lays (as per last week), and more losing trades. Looking at the results, many trades could also have been given more ‘breathing space' to maximise returns rather than closing early, but again this is great in hindsight!
As an additional note, I am in progress with the Trading Guide that started two issues ago with part one. Part two is underway, but due again to the busy schedule this week with matches every night, it is not publication ready.
Looking ahead to next week, we have all of the main European leagues taking place. One point to note, is that after mid-week European games, teams can be more fatigued, pick-up slight injuries or lack preparation time for weekend fixtures. Even with squad rotation, certain players will still be called upon for both games. I have noticed this trend over many years. One particular game of note is the below, where Predictology are also showing value in backing a West Ham win, who did not have a mid-week European game.
However, I will be probably taking a more conservative approach and laying Liverpool, where they are currently trading at around 1.4.
But before this decision is made, more thorough analysis is needed and a preview of the starting line-ups. However, I will be submitting match analysis and Trading Recommendations for this match to Football Advisor. The Trade Of The Day Recommendation will also include market selection, price entry points and exit point scenarios (depending on how a match unfolds).
ProTrader started his career and fascination with the financial markets as an Index Analyst at FTSE. He has since consulted for 15 years for some of the top Financial Institutions and Investment Banks in the world, where he specialized in financial instruments, pricing data, trading platforms and risk management solutions. He first started trading sports markets in early 2000, after the introduction and discovery of Betfair. He now trades the financial markets whilst working on entrepreneurial ventures with a focus on sports trading apps and e-commerce. In his spare time, he is writing a series of books soon to be published, enjoys outdoor pursuits with his family, learning Russian and of course, trading football markets.