Diary of a Football Trader – Issue 17
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ProTrader started his career and fascination with the financial markets as an Index Analyst at FTSE. He has since consulted for 15 years for some of the top Financial Institutions and Investment Banks in the world, where he specialised in financial instruments, pricing data, trading platforms and risk management solutions. He first started trading sports markets in early 2000, after the introduction and discovery of Betfair. He now trades the financial markets whilst working on entrepreneurial ventures with a focus on sports trading apps and e-commerce. He lives with his wife and young daughter between their homes of London, Sardinia, Odessa and Sochi. In his spare time, he is writing a book, enjoys outdoor pursuits with his family, learning Russian and of course, trading football markets.
Diary of a Football Trader – Issue 17
It’s back to a ‘normal’ week of Football this week, with all top European League matches taking place this weekend, followed by mid-week UEAFA Champions and Europa League group games.
Saturday, 21st November, 2020
With the Premier League back under-way, the matches looked at are:
- Newcastle v Chelsea
- Aston Villa v Brighton
Summary of Market Trading
Newcastle v Chelsea
BTTS
I took a back position on ‘Yes’ before kick-off for £55 at 1.9. Unfortunately, I wasn’t able to actively watch this match, but had I seen how poor Newcastle were as (I read later), I would have closed this position at half-time. In the end, this created a £55 loss.
Over / Under 2.5
Before kick-off, I took a lay position on overs for £55 at 1.74. With the match ending 0-2, this banked £55 profit.
Aston Villa v Brighton
Match Odds
I traded this match from the start initially backing Aston Villa. As the match progressed, I changed position to favour Brighton. In the end, a £19 profit was made.
Overall, these two matches produced a £19 profit.
Sunday, 22nd November, 2020
The matches being looked at today are:
- Fulham v Everton
- Sheffield United v West Ham United
- Leeds United v Arsenal
- Liverpool v Leicester City
Fulham v Everton
Match Odds
From my analysis, I expected Everton to win, and so before the match I took a back position on Everton at 1.96 for £50. As the match progressed, with Everton leading, this position was closed for a £38 profit.
Sheffield United v West Ham United
Match Odds
Expecting (or hoping) for a west Ham win, I took a conservative back position for £27 at 2.92. After West Ham scored, this position was closed to bank a £35 profit.
Leeds United v Arsenal
BTTS
Expecting a fairly tight, low-scoring encounter, I took a lay position on ‘Yes’ for £25 at 1.66. Later in the second-half with the score 0-0, I closed the position for £20 profit.
Correct Score
I opened a speculative position on 0-0 for £5 at 18.5. As the match continued goal-less, I closed this position for a £28 profit.
Match Odds
Around half-time, I opened a speculative position backing Leeds at 3.3 for £25. Towards the end, I closed this position to make an £8 profit.
Over / Under 2.5
Before kick-off I took a position laying overs at 1.76 for £50. In the second-half and still 0-0, the price had dropped to 1.35, and so the position was closed banking a £46 profit.
Over / Under 1.5
30 minutes in to the match, I took a lay position on overs at 1.53 for £50. Into the second-half and still 0-0, I closed this for a £33 profit.
Liverpool v Leicester City
Over / Under 2.5
My analysis pointed to a cagey game between these sides, and so I built a position laying overs at average odds of 1.58 for £105. This position was looking good until the 86th minute, when Liverpool scored their third, creating a disappointing £60 loss. In hindsight, I should have closed this when Leicester scored an own goal in the 21st minute.
Overall, the matches traded today produced £148 profit.
Monday,23rd November, 2020
There’s two further Premier League matches taking place this evening:
- Burley v Crystal Palace
- Wolverhampton Wanderers v Southampton
Burnley v Crystal Palace
Over / Under 2.5
Analysis pointed to a low-scoring match, and so I took a back position on unders £105 at average odds of 1.69. This market was traded out in two increments (first to reduce risk on the position, and then to take profit) banking £60 profit.
Correct Score
30 minutes in to the match with the score 1-0, I took a back position on this score-line for £10 at 6. As the match continued with the score unchanged, I closed this position for a £31 profit.
Wolves v Southampton
BTTS
Analysis pointed to both teams attacking and scoring in this fixture. Watching the match progress, just after half-time I took a lay position on ‘No’ for £100 at 1.24. With Southampton scoring in the 58th, and Wolves shortly afterwards, this market closed for a £95 profit.
Overall, trading these matches produced £186 profit.
Tuesday, 24th November, 2020
Tonight it’s the return of the UEFA Champions League, with 8 matches taking place.
Rennes v Chelsea
Over / Under 2.5
Before kick-off I took a back position on overs at 1.74 for £100. As the match progressed late in to the second-half with the score 0-2, chances were still being created by both sides. I increased this position by laying unders at 1.17. With a third goal coming in injury time, this market closed banking a £104 profit.
BTTS
Analysis pointed to Rennes struggling to score against a defensively improved Chelsea side. I took a position laying ‘Yes’ at 1.86 for £50. Later in the second-half, with the score 0-1, I closed the position for a £19 profit.
Manchester United v Basaksehir
Over / Under 2.5
Before kick-off I took a lay position on overs at 1.48 for £50. With two early goals, I closed this position for a £21 loss.
Correct Score
As I closed the above position, I backed ‘any other home win’ in this market for £50 at 1.52. Somewhat fortunately, Manchester United scored a fourth in injury time, banking £25 profit.
First Goal-Scorer
This isn’t a market I normally look at, but I backed Fernandes before kick-off for £5 at 6.2. Technically this isn’t a trade, and just a speculative punt, but it still made £25 profit.
Juventus v Ferencvaros
I wasn’t actively following this match, but when seeing Juventus had gone a goal down, I took a back position on them at 1.71 for £50. As expected, they come back to win, banking £34 profit.
Overall, the matches traded today produced £186 profit.
Wednesday, 25th November, 2020
A further 8 UEAFA Champions League matches are taking place today.
Borussia M’gladbach v Shakhtar Donetsk
BTTS
Analysis pointed to a match with both teams scoring and so I took a back position on ‘Yes’ at 1.8 for £50. However, even with more possession and good chances on target, Shakhtar Donetsk didn’t manage to score, creating a £50 loss.
Internazionale v Real Madrid
Match Odds
With Real already 1-0 up, I took a back position on them for £50 at 2.2. With Inter having a man sent-off, I closed this position out in two increments for a £40 profit.
Liverpool v Atalanta
Over / Under 2.5
Before kick-off, I took a lay position on overs at 1.53 for £50. Just before half-time with the score 0-0, I closed the trade for £23 profit.
Overall, these matches produced £13 profit.
Thursday, 26th November, 2020
It’s Europa League action tonight, with no less than 24 matches taking place. However, the main match I have decided to follow is:
Rangers v Benfica
Over / Under 2.5
Following analysis, it appeared this match would have more than 2.5 goals. Before kick-off, I had a back position on overs for £130 at 1.74. As the second goal came in the second-half, this position was closed for £48 profit. The match ended 2-2.
Match Odds
Following analysis, I thought Benfica would win or draw, and so built up a position laying Rangers, even after they were leading 2-0. This was based on the high percentage of late goals that Benfica score (currently 50% between 75-90 minutes in the Europa League).
With Benfica following form and scoring two late goals to equalize, this position was closed for £96 profit.
Correct Score
Still believing Benfica would come back, I took a couple of positions in this market for 1-2 and 2-2. When the match reached 2-2, I closed for a £79 profit.
Molde v Arsenal
Match Odds
This market was traded quite extensively through various stages. In the end it closed with a £22 profit.
Braga v Leicester City
BTTS
Before kick-off, I placed a back position on ‘Yes’ at 1.7 for £36. Within the first 9 minutes this market was closed when both teams had scored, resulting in a £24 profit.
Overall, these matches traded produced £269 profit.
Friday, 27th November, 2020
Crystal Palace v Newcastle United
Match Odds
Analysis pointed to a low-scoring game. However, with the return of Wilson for Newcastle and the loss of Zaha for Palace (the teams highest respective goal-scorers), I took an early back position on Newcastle. As Palace seemed to be getting in to the match more, I closed the position for a small profit. Later on and expecting a goal either way, I layed the draw at 1.8 for £55. With Newcastle scoring two late goals, this position ended with a £52 profit.
Over / Under 2.5
Since analysis pointed to a low-scoring match, I took a back position on unders at 1.68 for £150. The match had a feistier, higher tempo than expected, so came out of the trade slightly to minimize risk. I then closed the trade at half-time to bank £45 profit.
This two markets traded in this match made £97 profit.
Conclusion
It was an interesting and busy week of matches, and having the disruptive International breaks finished until March, this hopefully will continue. The main concern is if the amount of Covid-19 cases that continues to rise in football, with key players being out which otherwise may have changed a game and the result – an example being tonight’s game, where readers of Trade of The Day will know that I changed a trading decision based on a key player, Zaha, being out quarantined. I was also disappointed with the Champions League Shakhtar Donetsk result. However, they have also been struck with Covid-19, and on another day the result could have been different.
This is just another element that needs to be applied to pre-match analysis, and where following the very latest news on teams is now more important than ever.
Overall, this week made £770 profit (Betfair commission at 5% included).
This weekend, all top European Leagues will be in action, and I will be posting Trade of The Day tomorrow for the Everton v Leeds United match (kick-off 17.30).
ProTrader started his career and fascination with the financial markets as an Index Analyst at FTSE. He has since consulted for 15 years for some of the top Financial Institutions and Investment Banks in the world, where he specialized in financial instruments, pricing data, trading platforms and risk management solutions. He first started trading sports markets in early 2000, after the introduction and discovery of Betfair. He now trades the financial markets whilst working on entrepreneurial ventures with a focus on sports trading apps and e-commerce. In his spare time, he is writing a series of books soon to be published, enjoys outdoor pursuits with his family, learning Russian and of course, trading football markets.