Diary of a Football Trader – Issues 39 & 40
Get Pro Trader's “TRADE OF THE DAY” right here
This is your opportunity to follow a Real Pro Trader – LIVE
Since August 2020, Pro Trader has been sharing his trading analysis and results on our blog.
He has consistently made 3 and 4 figure profits EVERY WEEK
Now he is going to share his TOP TRADE every day
– All his pre match analysis
– How and Why he selected the match
– The exact markets to trade
– When to ENTER and when to EXIT
….AND.. what to do when things go positively and when things don't go to plan
ProTrader started his career and fascination with the financial markets as an Index Analyst at FTSE. He has since consulted for 15 years for some of the top Financial Institutions and Investment Banks in the world, where he specialized in financial instruments, pricing data, trading platforms and risk management solutions. He first started trading sports markets in early 2000, after the introduction and discovery of Betfair. He now trades the financial markets whilst working on entrepreneurial ventures with a focus on sports trading apps and e-commerce. He lives with his wife and young daughter and enjoy travelling (when permitted). In his spare time, he is writing a series of books, enjoys outdoor pursuits with his family, and of course, trading football markets.
Diary of a Football Trader – Issues 39 & 40
The last few weeks have been incredibly busy, both with football trading, analysis as well as other projects and family commitments. Hopefully next week we will be fully up-to-date with the latest trading diaries, which will now switch focus to the long awaited Euro 2020 tournament.
Now, back to the latest edition of matches traded in these issues, which covers 8th May – 19th May.
Get Pro Trader's “TRADE OF THE DAY” right here
This is your opportunity to follow a Real Pro Trader – LIVE
Since August 2020, Pro Trader has been sharing his trading analysis and results on our blog.
He has consistently made 3 and 4 figure profits EVERY WEEK
Now he is going to share his TOP TRADE every day
– All his pre match analysis
– How and Why he selected the match
– The exact markets to trade
– When to ENTER and when to EXIT
….AND.. what to do when things go positively and when things don't go to plan
ProTrader started his career and fascination with the financial markets as an Index Analyst at FTSE. He has since consulted for 15 years for some of the top Financial Institutions and Investment Banks in the world, where he specialized in financial instruments, pricing data, trading platforms and risk management solutions. He first started trading sports markets in early 2000, after the introduction and discovery of Betfair. He now trades the financial markets whilst working on entrepreneurial ventures with a focus on sports trading apps and e-commerce. He lives with his wife and young daughter and enjoy travelling (when permitted). In his spare time, he is writing a series of books, enjoys outdoor pursuits with his family, and of course, trading football markets.
Saturday, 8th May, 2021
Manchester City v Chelsea
Manchester City go in to this match as favourites, currently priced at 1.94, Chelsea at 4.6, with the draw at 3.6.
Many may think that this is the dry-run for the UEFA Champions League Final which both sides are in. However, it isn't and both teams will be largely different and changed for this encounter. Also, the FA Cup semi-final should not be seen as a bench-mark for this match. It again was a totally different match, in a different competition.
The fact is, Chelsea will want the points in order to secure a Champions League (CL) spot next season. This is the only guaranteed way, since winning the CL final is 50/50. A flip of the coin.
Therefore, Chelsea will look to win this match, and will most likely score considering the stats that are provided above. Manchester City however will also be likely to score, since they have scored in all of their previous 5 matches.
This may be a tight, cagey game, with goals under 2.5 likely, but the price on this is just 1.75. Therefore, with both teams capable of creating quality chances, both teams to score looks better value at a decent price of 2.12.
Both Teams To Score
I took both a back position on ‘Yes’ before kick-off and then increased this slightly after the start. With both teams scoring, and the match ending 1-2 Chelsea, this banked a £95 profit.
Sunday, 9th May, 2021
West Ham United v Everton
West Ham go in to this match as favourites, currently priced at 2.3, Everton at 3.4, with the draw at 3.6.
West Ham now have Michel Antonio back, their joint top goal-scorer (along with Lingard and Soucek, also on 9 goals). In their last game he saw them to victory with 2 against an often hard to beat Burnley. Everton meanwhile rely heavily on their top goal-scorer Calvert-lewin, who has scored 2 goals for Everton since 7th February. Richarlison is their second joint-top goal-scorer (on 6), and last scored for Everton on 4th March against West Brom.
Looking at just the facts and the stats, West Ham have more goals in them from many different sources and angles. In fact they are currently joint 6th with Chelsea in goals scored in the league this season. Everton are 11th.
Everton however also prove difficult to score against, and have kept 4 clean sheets in their last 5 away games, conceding just 2 goals in the process. All of these matches also registered under 2.5 goals.
With the above in mind, a low-scoring match may prevail with a defensively minded Everton. However, it looks likely that West Ham will continue in their quest for European football next season, and backing a win against their manager's old side looks the best trade here.
Match Odds – West Ham
Backing ‘West Ham' offers good value for this match from a trading perspective at 2.3.
I opened a back position on ‘West Ham’ for £150 at average odds of 2.32. With Everton scoring, this position was then increased by laying ‘Everton’ at 1.7 for £155, on expectation that West Ham would equalize. In the end, this match ended with a late solitary goal from Everton, resulting in a £258 loss.
Monday, 10th May, 2021
Fulham v Burnley
Fulham go in to this match as favourites, currently priced at 2.34, Burnley at 3.4, with the draw at 3.5.
Although Burnley have recently been seeing some high-scoring matches, they will be more determined not to lose against the team that is just one position below them (albeit 9 points). Fulham have scored just 2 goals (total) in their last 5 home matches. This won't be an end-to-end goal fest, so instead we can benefit on goals being in short supply.
Therefore, goals under 2.5 is favoured, at a decent price of around 1.9.
Under 2.5 Goals
I took a back position on ‘under’ for £213 at an average price of 1.75. During this match, there was a down-time of the Betfair Exchange (affecting all live events) and showing ‘suspended’ on the match for a considerable time. No trades could be made during this time.
However, when the technical problem appeared to be fixed and the market came back, as a precautionary measure I fully closed the trade, in case of the issue re-occurring. This banked a £48 profit, although greater profit could have been made if it was left to run further, with the match ending 0-2. However, when technical issues like this occur, it is best to close the position to minimize risk of not being able to trade out.
Tuesday, 11th May, 2021
Manchester United v Leicester City
Manchester United go in to this match as favourites, currently priced at 2.62, Leicester at 2.98, with the draw at 3.45.
What makes this match trickier to evaluate is the fact both teams have other important matches on the horizon in a busy schedule. Manchester United play the rescheduled fixture against arch-rivals Liverpool in 2 days, whilst Leicester have the FA Cup final against Chelsea on Saturday.
Therefore, players being rested and rotated is to be expected by both teams, but to which extent remains unknown. Another factor is that Leicester are also looking to remain in the Champions League qualification, whilst Manchester United are still mathematically capable of winning the league (although highly unlikely).
These factors could then see a tight, cagey game play out, with both teams looking to ‘not lose', or risk any additional injuries.
The correct score market is also showing 1-1 as the favourite selection, at just 7.4. I do like the both teams to score market as well, but the price is just 1.78.
Therefore, goals under 2.5 is favoured, at a decent price of around 1.96.
Over / Under 2.5
I took a back position on ‘under’ for £125 at average odds of 1.96. Later this was increased by laying ‘over’ at 1.5. However, with Leicester scoring their second-goal (and 3rd of the match), this market was closed for £135 loss.
Wednesday, 12th May, 2021
Chelsea v Arsenal
Chelsea go in to this match as favourites, currently priced at 1.8, Arsenal at 5.2, with the draw at 3.9.
Again, like yesterday's TOTD match this could see the resting and rotation of players. This is because Chelsea have the FA Cup Final on Saturday against Leicester. However, the lesson that yesterday showed was that qualifying for the Champions League (CL) is more important than winning the FA Cup.
With Chelsea still not certain of qualifying for the CL via their league position (or by winning the CL final), they will look at this match as a must-win route to ensure inclusion.
Therefore, markets of interest are both teams to score ‘No' at 1.95, and under 2.5 goals at 1.87.
With Chelsea expected to keep it Tuchel-tight, and Arsenal unlikely to score, the BTTS ‘No' makes for the best value trade.
Therefore, both teams to score ‘No' is favoured, at a decent price of 1.96.
Both Teams To Score – No
I took a back position on ‘No’ for £200 at an average price of 1.96. In the 16th minute, Arsenal scored. This was a little concerning for this trade, because I expected Chelsea would score, and so came out of the trade slightly. However, the match finished 0-1 Arsenal and a £99 profit was banked.
Thursday, 13th May, 2021
Aston Villa v Everton
Everton go in to this match as favourites, currently priced at 2.52, Aston Villa at 3.1, with the draw at 3.5.
An outright winner of this match (if there is to be one), is difficult to call. Although they played just earlier in the month, Aston Villa will be without their top goal-scorer (Ollie Watkins) for this match. It has been suggested that Jack Grealish may feature, but it is likely to be as a substitute, and will not be fully match fit from 12 weeks out.
Everton has been resolute defensively of late, especially away from home and conceded just 2 goals (total) in their last 6 outings. Most recently, away to both Arsenal and West Ham the home team could not score. All of these last 6 away matches also saw under 2.5 goals. Aston Villa without their top-striker are also likely to have a similarly tough time.
Looking at other markets, under 2.5 goals is 1.91, which is decent considering the above mentioned form. Both teams to score ‘No', however, is 2.2. Given that Everton have kept 5 clean sheets in their last 6 away matches, this looks to be the highest-value trading position.
BTTS – No
I took a back position on ‘No’ for £100 at odds of 2.18. As the match progressed goal-less, towards the end I closed the position for a £104 profit. The match finished 0-0.
Friday, 14th May, 2021
Newcastle United v Manchester City
Manchester City go in to this match as favourites, currently priced at 1.33, Newcastle at 11.5, with the draw at 5.9.
Unfortunately for Newcastle, they will be without their top goal-scorer Callum Wilson (due to injury). With Manchester City already winning the league, this match could be seen as a dead-rubber for them. However, with a Champions League final against Chelsea on the horizon, it is anticipated that matches before that crucial game will be seen as an opportunity to further prepare. This will involve improving on an already solid defence, and they will not want to concede goals here.
Therefore, it is expected that City will look to contain Newcastle in a disciplined and orderly manner. With Newcastle expected to have less than 35% possession, and without their top goal-threat, both teams to score ‘No' looks a highly viable proposition.
Both Teams To Score – No
Due to family commitments I wasn’t personally able to trade this match. However, Newcastle scored fairly early in the first-half, and then it turned in to a surprising goal-fest ending 3-4 to Manchester City.
Saturday, 15th May, 2021
Brighton v West Ham United
West Ham go in to this match as favourites, currently priced at 2.36, Brighton at 3.3, with the draw at 3.6.
Unfortunately for Brighton, due to suspensions they will be without their top-scorer (Neal Maupay, 8 goals) and their top-defender (Lewis Dunk, also Brighton's 2nd joint-top goal-scorer, on 5).
This will surely favour West Ham, although Brighton have proved to be their bogey team, having failed to beat them in the last 7 attempts. However, a win here will put them in to 5th, and a Europa League position, which should provide additional motivation. West Ham may also have Declan Rice back, which would be another big positive for their mid-field.
Looking at other markets, both teams to score ‘Yes' is appealing at 1.83, although with Brighton missing their two main goal-threats is causing doubts. Over 2.5 goals (seen in 3 of their last 4 meetings) is priced at 2.
With all things considered, with West Ham having more to play for and almost back to full-strength, it is the backing of West Ham in the match odds market at a decent 2.36 that holds higher-value.
Match Odds
I took a back position on West Ham for £100 at 2.46. Brighton scored late towards the end of the match, but with West Ham looking still likely of scoring, I layed Brighton at 1.25 for £100. West Ham equalized 3 minutes later, and the trade was closed for zero profit/loss.
Sunday, 16th May, 2021
Everton v Sheffield United
Everton go in to this match as favourites, currently priced at just 1.42, Sheffield United at 9.4, with the draw at 5.1.
Looking at other markets of interest, both teams to score ‘No' is a 1.71. Considering that Sheffield United have scored just 1 goal in their last 6 away matches, and that Everton's defence hasn't conceded in their last 2 matches, this looks highly likely. Everton are also not prolific scorers, and in their last 5 matches have scored a mean average of just 0.6 goals.
Therefore, under 2.5 goals offers much higher-value at 2.1 to back.
Under 2.5 Goals
I took a back position on under for £100 at 2.1. This was traded out a little to reduce risk during the match because Sheffield United scored. In the end, this finished 0-1 and £79 was banked.
Monday, 17th May, 2021 – No Trade Day
Tuesday, 18th May, 2021
Chelsea v Leicester City
Chelsea go in to this match as favourites, currently priced at just 1.76, Leicester at 5.8, with the draw at 3.8.
Again, there's a lot riding on this match as both teams battle for a Champions League place, in 3rd and 4th positions, separated by just 2 points with 2 matches left (including this one).
Considering Leicester have just beaten Chelsea on Saturday in the FA Cup final (albeit with a solitary wonder-goal and some great saves from Schmeichel), the value appears to be on Leicester at 5.8, or at least laying Chelsea to win in what should be a very tight, cagey game.
However, a lot will depend on the team that Chelsea manager Thomas Tuchel selects here, and whether it is less defensively minded as what started for the cup final (although it was improved towards the end of the match).
Looking at other markets of interest, both teams to score ‘No' is 1.84, whilst under 2.5 goals is 1.78. A draw here would suit Leicester more, and they will perhaps look to contain Chelsea, whilst looking at scoring on the counter-attack. However, Leicester registered just 1 shot on target in the final against the league's joint-top defensive side (in terms of clean-sheets).
Therefore, backing under 2.5 goals makes most appeal at 1.78.
Under 2.5 Goals
I took a back position on unders for £275 at average odds of 1.96. After Chelsea scored their second goal (via a penalty), I closed this trade to reduce risk. In the end, the match ended 2-1 and £94 loss was created.
Wednesday, 19th May, 2021
Burnley v Liverpool
With Burnley often difficult to break-down, and with Liverpool seeing under 3.5 goals in 4 of their last 5 matches, the price on under 3.5 goals at around 2.
Under 3.5 Goals
I took a back position on under at average odds of 2 for £103. Liverpool scored late in the first-half, and followed up with two more later on in the match. Just before the end, I closed the trade in case of an injury time goal. In the end, it finished 0-3 for £94 profit.
Thursday, 20th May, 2021 – No Trade Day
Friday, 21st May, 2021 – No Trade Day
Conclusion
This period has just covered the penultimate week of the English Premier League.
Overall, the recommendations for this trading period produced 4.36 points profit, whilst also averaging 2.06 in the trade prices recommended. The points profit is down from the previous period, due to some disappointing results (for instance, I believed West Ham would have made a final big-push for a top-four spot), but they fell-short and cost 6 trading points in the process. There were also three ‘no trade days’ during this period.
Moving on, the next period will cover the last day of the Premier League, the Championship play-off final, the European Cup finals, leagues 1 & 2 play-offs, before moving in to a period of International friendlies: a very mixed bag of leagues and matches to navigate.
Enjoy the matches coming up, stay safe, and stay profitable
Pro Trader
ProTrader started his career and fascination with the financial markets as an Index Analyst at FTSE. He has since consulted for 15 years for some of the top Financial Institutions and Investment Banks in the world, where he specialized in financial instruments, pricing data, trading platforms and risk management solutions. He first started trading sports markets in early 2000, after the introduction and discovery of Betfair. He now trades the financial markets whilst working on entrepreneurial ventures with a focus on sports trading apps and e-commerce. In his spare time, he is writing a series of books soon to be published, enjoys outdoor pursuits with his family, learning Russian and of course, trading football markets.