Diary of a Football Trader – Issues 44 and 45
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This is your opportunity to follow a Real Pro Trader – LIVE
Since August 2020, Pro Trader has been sharing his trading analysis and results on our blog.
He has consistently made 3 and 4 figure profits EVERY WEEK
Now he is going to share his TOP TRADE every day
– All his pre match analysis
– How and Why he selected the match
– The exact markets to trade
– When to ENTER and when to EXIT
….AND.. what to do when things go positively and when things don't go to plan
ProTrader started his career and fascination with the financial markets as an Index Analyst at FTSE. He has since consulted for 15 years for some of the top Financial Institutions and Investment Banks in the world, where he specialized in financial instruments, pricing data, trading platforms and risk management solutions. He first started trading sports markets in early 2000, after the introduction and discovery of Betfair. He now trades the financial markets whilst working on entrepreneurial ventures with a focus on sports trading apps and e-commerce. He lives with his wife and young daughter and enjoy travelling (when permitted). In his spare time, he is writing a series of books, enjoys outdoor pursuits with his family, and of course, trading football markets.
Diary of a Football Trader – Issues 44 & 45
This double-edition gets us up to speed with where we are at with the Euros. The group games have been completed, the last 16 teams are finalised, and the next round of matches are due to start tomorrow. In other words, we will now be entering the business end of the knock-out rounds to determine who will make the last eight of the quarter-finals.
Now, back to the latest edition of group matches traded in these issues, which covers 12th – 23rd June.
Get Pro Trader's “TRADE OF THE DAY” right here
This is your opportunity to follow a Real Pro Trader – LIVE
Since August 2020, Pro Trader has been sharing his trading analysis and results on our blog.
He has consistently made 3 and 4 figure profits EVERY WEEK
Now he is going to share his TOP TRADE every day
– All his pre match analysis
– How and Why he selected the match
– The exact markets to trade
– When to ENTER and when to EXIT
….AND.. what to do when things go positively and when things don't go to plan
ProTrader started his career and fascination with the financial markets as an Index Analyst at FTSE. He has since consulted for 15 years for some of the top Financial Institutions and Investment Banks in the world, where he specialized in financial instruments, pricing data, trading platforms and risk management solutions. He first started trading sports markets in early 2000, after the introduction and discovery of Betfair. He now trades the financial markets whilst working on entrepreneurial ventures with a focus on sports trading apps and e-commerce. He lives with his wife and young daughter and enjoy travelling (when permitted). In his spare time, he is writing a series of books, enjoys outdoor pursuits with his family, and of course, trading football markets.
Saturday, 12th June, 2021
Denmark v Finland
Denmark go in to this Group B Euros match as favourites, currently priced at 1.45, Finland at 10.5, with the draw at 4.6.
This is a home match for Denmark, being played in Copenhagen, offering a further advantage for this Danish team to impress their fans and make a statement of intent.
It is noted that Finland's defence has been shaky of late, conceding 9 goals in their last 5 matches. Denmark are a far more assured and attacking team than these previous opponents, and are expected to play 4-3-3, providing strong options going forward, having no problem opening up the Finnish defence.
However, the short-price on an outright win for Denmark doesn't appeal for a trade recommendation. Instead, looking at the over 2.5 goals market, this makes strong appeal at 2.32.
Over 2.5 Goals
I took both a back position on ‘Over’ before kick-off for £55 at 2.34. The strategy was then to incrementally increase this position as the price rose. However, tragedy occurred in the match, with Christian Erikson suffering a cardiac arrest on the pitch. It appeared this match would now be cancelled / postponed, but shockingly, about 1.5 hours after this terrible event, the match resumed! When this occurred, and knowing that the complexion of the match would now be ultimately different, I closed the trade for a £57 loss. Thankfully, Christian Erikson got the quick medical assistance he needed and is now reportedly on the mend and recovering from his terrible ordeal.
Sunday, 13th June, 2021
Netherlands v Ukraine
Netherlands go in to this Group C Euros match as favourites, currently priced at 1.64, Ukraine at 6.6, with the draw at 4.1.
This is a legitimate home match for Netherlands, being played in Amsterdam. However, under Shevchenko, Ukraine has produced numerous upsets along the way.
They finished top of their Euro 2020 qualification group, above Portugal. In a World Cup qualification game in March, they drew 1-1 away to France, and in the UEFA Nations League they won away to Spain.
Another upset could be on the cards for this match, away to Netherlands. Laying the Netherlands could be a decent option to consider (who earlier this month were fortunate to salvage a 2-2 home draw to Scotland).
This could also be a game that has potential to produce goals, and over 2.5 is currently 2.16. However, with Ukraine's record of having 4 out of their last 6 matches finishing 1-1, this also has risk for their opening match.
Therefore, both teams to score is favoured for the main trade at around 2.2 (down from a high of 2.3).
Both Teams To Score – Yes
I opened a back position on ‘Yes’ for £60 at average odds of 2.26. Indeed, there were goals in this match, and with the match ending 3-2, this banked an £80 profit.
Monday, 14th June, 2021
Poland v Slovakia
Poland go in to this Group E Euros match as favourites, currently priced at 1.76, Slovakia at 6.2, with the draw at 3.6.
Poland's Lewandowski is in sensational form, having scored 41 goals last season for Bayern Munich. He should also be partnered with compatriot Milik who has played in Serie A before moving to Marseille.
Slovakia will obviously be aware of the goal threat Poland possess, but to get anything out of this game they will also have to push forward in the hope of breaching the Polish defence that has conceded in 4 of their last 5 matches.
Therefore, over 2.5 goals is favoured for the main trade at around 2.4.
Over 2.5 Goals
I took a back position on ‘over’ for £50 at an average price of 2.44. With the match ending 1-2 Slovakia, no further action was need to bank a £71 profit.
Tuesday, 15th June, 2021
France v Germany
France go in to this match as favourites, currently priced at 2.76, Germany at 3, with the draw at 3.25.
These teams are competing in the ‘group of death', because it also includes Portugal (and Hungary). The priority here for both teams here will be to not lose. Therefore, a tight and cagey game will be the order of the day, and a draw is a very likely outcome. However, either side are still capable of winning by a narrow margin,
Therefore, under 2.5 goals is favoured for the main trade at around 1.86.
Under 2.5
I took a back position on ‘under’ for £115 at average odds of 1.88. As the match progressed, I traded this out slightly to reduce risk. With the match however ending 1-0, this banked an £84 profit.
Wednesday, 16th June, 2021
Italy v Switzerland
Italy go in to this match as favourites, currently priced at 1.69, Switzerland at 6.6, with the draw at 3.8.
Italy got off to a promising start in their first group match by beating Turkey 3-0. However, Turkey were hugely disappointing and offered little going forward. Switzerland drew their opening match against Wales 1-1, and will see this as both unlucky and a missed opportunity, since they were by far the superior team. They will be looking at making amends here, and with more clinical finishing are capable of breaching the Italian back-line.
Backing Italy at just 1.69 does not offer value, since the Swiss team have a lot of quality in all areas and should pose a much sterner test this evening.
Therefore, over 2.5 goals is favoured for the main trade at around 2.34.
Over 2.5 Goals
I took a back position on ‘Over’ for £100 at a price of 2.34. The third Italian goal came late, but the trade was achieved without panic and £131 profit was banked.
Thursday, 17th June, 2021
Ukraine v North Macedonia
Ukraine go in to this match as favourites, currently priced at 1.75, North Macedonia at 5.6, with the draw at 3.95.
Ukraine were unfortunate to concede a late winner against Netherlands in their first group match on Sunday. They came back from 2-0 down in Amsterdam to level at 2-2, only for a late Dutch winner to come away with zero points.
In North Macedonia's first group game, the match ended 3-1 to Austria in Bucharest, but they made the Austrian side work hard for the flattering end result.
The back price on Ukraine to win here is fair, with this looking like the most likely outcome.
However, with both teams now needing to get points on the board, this should be an open game and goals can be expected from both sides.
Therefore, over 2.5 goals is favoured for the main trade at around 2.14.
Over 2.5 Goals
I took a back position on ‘over’ for £100 at odds of 2.12. As the match progressed, I increased this position by laying ‘under’ at an average price of 1.69. When the 3rd goal was scored fairly early in to the second-half (57 mins), the trade was closed and £129 profit was banked.
Friday, 18th June, 2021
England v Scotland
England go in to this match as huge favourites, currently priced at just 1.33, Scotland at 12, with the draw at 5.9.
Defensively, Scotland are a fairly solid unit and haven't conceded more than 2 goals in their last 5 matches. This should be further enhanced by the return of Arsenal defender Kieran Tierney. It's scoring goals that remain Scotland's biggest weakness.
England are likely to approach this game with certain caution, and has all the makings of a tight, cagey affair with low-risk all-round play.
Therefore, under 2.5 goals is favoured for the main trade at a decent price of around 2.02.
Under 2.5 Goals
I took a back position on ‘under’ for £100 at odds of 2.02. As the match progressed, I took some risk out of the trade by laying unders at just 1.16. With the match ending 0-0, £81 profit was banked.
Saturday, 19th June, 2021
Portugal v Germany
Germany go in to this match as favourites, currently priced at 2.44, Portugal at 3.35, with the draw at 3.35.
Although this is classed as a Portugal home game, it is anything of the sort. It is being played in the Allianz Arena in Munich. This gives added complications when trying to compile data based on teams and home / away advantage points.
Portugal will be happy with a draw here, and will set out accordingly. They also haven't conceded a goal in their last 3 matches. Germany also haven't conceded more than 1 goal in their last 5 matches. Sure, Portugal won their previous game 0-3 against Hungary, but it was still 0-0 until the 84th minute. They also scored from a penalty, and the 3rd goal was in the 92nd minute of added time. In Germany's last match, they lost just 1-0 to France via a Germany own goal, and so effectively prevented France from scoring in the entire match.
Again, like yesterday's match between England and Scotland, this should be a cagey, tight affair. Neither team will want to lose, and so goal-scoring opportunities are likely to be few and far between. This could well end up 1-1, 0-0, or 1-0 either way. But goals will be at a premium.
Therefore, under 2.5 goals is favoured for the main trade at a fair price of around 1.9.
Under 2.5
I took a back position on ‘under’ for £179 at an average price of 1.9. I later increased this position by laying overs at 1.43 for £80 after Ronaldo scored an early goal (15 minutes). However, soon after this the goals started flying in and the match ended 2-4 to Germany, creating a £213 loss.
Sunday, 20th June, 2021
Switzerland v Turkey
Switzerland go in to this match as favourites, currently priced at 1.73, Turkey at 5.3, with the draw at 4.1.
Although this is classed as a Switzerland home game, it is being played in Baku, Azerbaijan. The temperature predicted at the time of this match is 31 degrees. Inside the stadium, it could be closer to 35. This intense heat is physically draining for players, and so results in slower game play. In fact, the last two matches played in this stadium both produced under 2.5 goals.
Combined with Turkey having not scored in their last two matches, and the fact that Switzerland have scored just a single goal from their previous two Euro group matches, this has the making of a tight, low-scoring affair.
It's a difficult call on predicting an outright winner of this match. The conditions and location could favour Turkey, yet Switzerland are resolute and difficult to breakdown.
Therefore, under 2.5 goals is favoured for the main trade at a very decent price of around 2.2.
Under 2.5 Goals
Due to a family birthday, I wasn’t able to actively to watch or participate with this match. But Switzerland came out of the blocks quickly and scored in the 6th minute and followed up with a second twenty minutes later. In the end, the match ended 3-1 Switzerland, creating a disappointing 3-point loss for the Trade Of The Day results.
Monday, 21st June, 2021
Russia v Denmark
Denmark go in to this match as favourites, currently priced at 1.8, Russia at 5, with the draw at 4.
Again, although this is classed as a Russia home game, it is being played in Copenhagen, Denmark. Denmark have far superior players, and although Russia could score, this looks like a Denmark win, with home advantage and the players having an extra incentive due to their friend and compatriot having a cardiac arrest in their last match.
Make no mistake, this team will play out of their skins to get a deserved win.
Match Odds – Denmark
I took a back position on Denmark for £100 at odds of 1.8. Indeed, as expected Denmark played well and got a deserved 1-4 victory, and a £78 profit was banked.
Tuesday, 22nd June, 2021
Czech Republic v England
England go in to this match as favourites, currently priced at 1.57, Czech Republic at 8.8, with the draw at 3.95.
Again, although this is classed as a Czech home game, it is being played at Wembley, England. The price on England to win is not palatable, and is to be avoided.
However, after a relatively disappointing start, with England scoring just 1 goal in 2 matches, it is believed that they will pick up the pace here and realise they need to score more goals.
Looking at the over/under 2.5 goals market, it is anticipated that this will be a low-scoring affair. Unders is currently 1.81, although it has been as low as 1.66.
The starting line-up for both sides is currently unknown. But it is anticipated that England manager Gareth Southgate will set-up to win this match, utilising his attacking players for maximum impact.
Therefore, against market sentiment, it looks good value to back over 2.5 at 2.22.
Over 2.5 Goals
I took a back position on laying unders for £165 at average odds of 1.63. As the match progressed, and it was clear the call on England going on the attack to boost their goal-scoring and thus confidence was mistaken, I exited the trade for a £104 loss.
Wednesday, 23rd June, 2021
Sweden v Poland
Poland go in to this match as slight favourites, currently priced at 2.74, Sweden at 2.8, with the draw at 3.55.
Although this is classed as a Sweden home game, it is being played in St Petersburg, Russia.
Sweden currently sit top of the group with 4 points and look likely to progress to the next round. Poland sit at the bottom, with just a single point, but could still potentially progress with a win here, and other results going their way.
Therefore, Poland have no choice but to come out and play for a win. This will also play into the hands of Sweden, who will be happy to counter-attack.
Therefore, both teams to score looks the value call at 2.
Both Teams To Score – Yes
I took a back position on ‘under’ at of 2 for £100. Sweden scored in just the 2nd minute, followed up with a second goal, before Lewandowski scored for Poland in the 61st. There was nothing further to do, and a £98 profit was banked.
Conclusion
It’s been an interesting and watchable set of group games and selections so far in this Euros tournament. Yes, there have been some surprising results, including Germany being literally minutes away from being eliminated before finding an equalizer against Hungary (2-2) in their final group match.
Italy have looked consistent, but arguably had one of the easier groups. Ditto Netherlands. Spain also looked out of sorts, scoring just 1 goal (against Poland) until their final game seemed to give them a wake-up call where they demolished Slovakia 5-0, qualifying second in their group (behind Sweden).
Overall, this two-week period of group matches covered in Diary Issues 44 & 45, produced 16.87 points profit, at average odds of 2.12
Overall, Trade of The Day recommendations (for those that follow), have now produced from the start of the year over 23% return on investment (ROI) and 222% return on capital (ROC).
Moving on, the next round of 16 kicks-off tomorrow (26th June) with Wales v Denmark, followed by Italy v Austria. As usual, much analysis is now needed on both of these matches to discover value and a decent, profitable recommendation, and to see the above figures continue to increase further throughout this exciting tournament.
Enjoy the next set of group 16 matches, stay safe, and stay profitable
Pro Trader
ProTrader started his career and fascination with the financial markets as an Index Analyst at FTSE. He has since consulted for 15 years for some of the top Financial Institutions and Investment Banks in the world, where he specialized in financial instruments, pricing data, trading platforms and risk management solutions. He first started trading sports markets in early 2000, after the introduction and discovery of Betfair. He now trades the financial markets whilst working on entrepreneurial ventures with a focus on sports trading apps and e-commerce. In his spare time, he is writing a series of books soon to be published, enjoys outdoor pursuits with his family, learning Russian and of course, trading football markets.
