Diary of a Football Trader – Issue 80
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Pro-Trader started his career and fascination with the financial markets as an Index Analyst at FTSE, London. He has since consulted for 15 years for some of the top Financial Institutions and Investment Banks in the world, where he specialized in financial instruments, pricing data, trading platforms and risk management solutions. He first started trading sports markets in early 2000, after the introduction and discovery of Betfair. He now trades the financial markets whilst working on entrepreneurial ventures with a focus on sports trading apps and e-commerce. In his spare time, he is writing a series of books, enjoys outdoor pursuits with his family, and of course, trading football markets.
Diary of a Football Trader – Issue 80
It’s been a while since the last Football Trader diary issue was released, so it’s great to be back and writing again about trading football matches. The reason for the break has been two-fold. Firstly, after having Covid, the affects continued for a long-time afterwards. This impacted many key attributes needing to both trade and write, particularly concentration, as well as severe fatigue, and also disturbed sleep, which accentuated the problem. This caused many projects being worked on to slow, or have to be put on hold, including Diary of a Football Trader.
Now, to the latest edition of the Trade Of The Day matches, which covers last week: Saturday 19th – Friday 25th February.
Saturday, 19th February, 2022
West Ham United v Newcastle (PRL)
West Ham go in to this match as favourites, currently priced at 1.78, Newcastle at 5.2, with the draw at 4.
West Ham are currently 5th in the Premier League with 41 points after 25 matches played. Newcastle are 17th on 21 points after 23 matches.
In terms of league xG, West Ham are 7th best and have averaged 1.69 at home. Newcastle are 15th for away matches with 1.05.
For xGA, West Ham have averaged 1.41 for home matches, making them 9th best in the league. Newcastle are 7th worst for away matches with 1.75 expected goals against.
West Ham's average goals scored and conceded are 1.92 and 1.5 for home matches – both scoring and conceding more than their xG numbers.
Newcastle have averaged 0.7 scored and 2 conceded for away matches – scoring less and conceding more than expected.
West Ham are in average form having won 2, lost 2 and drawn 1 of their last 5 matches. Their home form is marginally better, where they have won 3 and lost 2.
Newcastle are in much improved form from the first-half of the season, having won 3 and drawn 2 of their last 5 matches. This is due to a new manager, and some new player acquisitions. However, they have kept just 1 clean sheet in their 10 away matches, and have conceded in 4 of their last 5 away matches.
In terms of injuries, West Ham continue to be without centre-back Ogbonna. Newcastle have a lengthier list, which includes new signing Trippier and top-scorer Wilson.
In 4 of the last 5 matches between these sides, both teams to score has occurred.
Newcastle have under-achieved in terms of goals scored, and more goals are expected of them under manager Eddie Howe. This was evident when they beat Everton 3-1 earlier this month.
West Ham have scored in 100% of home matches this season, but have kept just 3 clean sheets (25%). Newcastle have scored in 70% of their away matches, whilst keeping a clean sheet in 10%.
Looking at the above, the value recommendation made was to back ‘Both Teams To Score – Yes' at a decent value price of 1.9 for 3 points (Betfair Exchange).
Both Teams To Score – Yes
I drip-fed increments on the back position of ‘Yes’, getting to an average price of 1.97 for £75. With West Ham scoring in the 32nd minute, and Newcastle equalizing just before half-time, the trade was closed for a £72 profit. The match finished 1-1.
Sunday, 20th February, 2022
Wolves v Leicester City (PRL)
Wolves are currently 8th in the Premier League with 37 points after 23 matches played. Leicester are 11th on 27 points after 22 matches.
In terms of league xG, Wolves are 2nd worst and have averaged 1.11 at home. Leicester are 8th worst for away matches with 1.22.
For xGA, Wolves have averaged 1.35 for home matches, making them 7th best in the league. Leicester are 4th worst for away matches with 1.91 expected goals against.
Wolves average goals scored and conceded are 0.73 and 0.82 for home matches – both scoring and conceding less than their xG numbers.
Leicester have averaged 1.5 scored, and 2.3 conceded for away matches – both scoring and conceding more than expected.
Wolves are in decent form having won 4 and lost 1 of their last 5 matches. Their home form is worse though, where they have won just once in their last 5. However, it should be noted that this includes matches against Arsenal, Chelsea and Liverpool. Also, during this run of home matches, they conceded a total of just 3 goals.
Leicester are in poor having won just 1 of their last 5 league matches. Away from home, they have not won in their last 5 (3 losses, 2 draws). Leicester also have not kept a clean sheet in their 10 away matches, but have failed to score just once.
In terms of injuries, Wolves are in good shape, and striker Pedro Neto could make his first appearance of the season. Leicester have bigger concerns, and are set to be without regulars Bertrand, Castagne, Evans and Fofana. More concerning is that their top-scorer, Vardy (9 goals) is also out, and midfielder Maddison is a doubt – between them, they have contributed to 19 of Leicester’s goals.
Wolves have seen a poor recent head-to-head against Leicester, with 2 losses and 3 draws. However, with Leicester’s injuries to key players, and that they also played mid-week in Europe, Wolves are favoured here.
Therefore, the recommendation was to back ‘Wolves’ at a decent value price of 2.26 for 3 points (Betfair Exchange).
Match Odds – Wolves
I created a back position on ‘Wolves’ for £105 at an average price of 2.51. Wolves scored in the 9th minute, before Leicester equalized late in the first-half. Wolves again scored midway through the second-half, and so I closed the position to mitigate risk for an £86 profit. The match finished 2-1 Wolves.
Monday, 21st February, 2022
Celta Vigo v Levante (LAL)
Celta Vigo go in to this match as favourites, currently priced at 1.69, Levante at 5.9 with the draw at 4.1.
Celta Vigo are currently 10th in La Liga with 31 points after 24 matches played. Levante are bottom, on 14 points after also 24 matches.
In terms of xG, Celta Vigo are 7th worst and have averaged 1.33 at home. Levante are 6th worst for away matches with 1.01.
For xGA, Celta Vigo have averaged 1.14 for home matches, making them 3rd best in the league. Levante are 6th worst for away matches with 1.71 expected goals against.
Celta Vigo's average goals scored and conceded are 1.25 and 1.25 for home matches – scoring less and conceding more than their xG numbers.
Levante have averaged 0.92 scored, and 2.42 conceded for away matches – scoring less and conceding more than expected.
Celta Vigo are in average form having won 2, lost 1 and drawn 2 of their last 5 matches. Their home form is better though, where they have won their last 3 matches.
Levante are in average/poor form, having won 2 and lost 3 of their last 5 league matches. However, in their last match they won away against Athletico Madrid.
In the last 5 head-to-heads, it is an even split, with Celta Vigo winning 2, Levante 2 and there has been 1 draw.
Since Levante are currently bottom of the table, this is reflected in the pricing of this match. However, when teams are in danger at this point in the season, it can bring about extra focus and determination to the team. We saw this at the weekend where Burnley beat 9th placed Brighton 0-3 in the Premier League.
Levante's last match saw them beat current La Liga champions Atheltico Madrid away, so they do appear to have the determination to get out of their position. The Infogol and Predictology models are also pointing to Levante getting something from this match.
The recommendation was to back ‘Levante +1’ in the Asian Handicap market at a fair value price of 1.78 for 3 points (Betfair Exchange).
Asian Handicap – Levante (+1)
I was covering three markets in this match – namely Asian Handicap, Match Odds and Correct Score. With the match ending 1-1, profit was made in all of these markets and £156 was banked.
Tuesday, 22nd February, 2022
Chelsea v Lille (UCL)
Chelsea go in to this match as favourites, currently priced at 1.33, Lille at 13.5 with the draw at 5.6.
Chelsea are currently 3rd in the Premier League with 50 points after 25 matches played. Lille are 11th in French Ligue 1, on 36 points after also 25 matches.
Chelsea are in good form coming in to this match, having won their last 5 matches (all competitions).
Lille are in average form, having won 2, lost 2 and drawn 1 of their last 5 matches (LI1).
In terms of xGA, Chelsea are 3rd best in the Premier League for home games, with 1.08. This is reflected in their actual goals conceded, where they are placed in joint-second position with 18 goals conceded.
Lille are ranked 10th in Ligue 1 for away match xGA, having recorded 1.6. However, they have conceded an average of 1.46.
It is expected that Lille will approach this first-leg match with caution, with the main aim of not losing. Chelsea have not seen many high-scoring matches in the Premier League recently, with 4 of their last 5 matches recording under 2.5 goals. They will also be without the attacking and creative threat of Chilwell, James and Mount.
The value recommendation here was to back ‘Under 2.5 Goals’ at a decent value price of 2.06 for 3 points (Betfair Exchange).
Under 2.5 Goals
I held a back position on ‘under’ for £142 at 1.99. Due to an early goal, this market was traded more than I wanted, with capital and profit protection in mind. The match finished 2-0 and £23 profit was made.
Wednesday, 23rd February, 2022
Athletico Madrid v Manchester United (UEL)
Atletico go in to this match as favourites, currently priced at 2.74, Manchester United at 3 with the draw at 3.25.
Champions Atletico are currently 5th in La Liga with 42 points after 25 matches played. Manchester United are 4th in the Premier League on 46 points after 26 matches.
In terms of xG, Atletico are 7th best in La Liga for home games, with 1.7. For xGA at home, Atletico are top in the league, with 0.8. For actual goals scored and conceded, Atletico have averaged 1.75 and 1 at home – both scoring and conceding slightly more than their metrics.
Manchester United are 3rd best in the Premier League for away games, with 1.63. For xGA away, they are 10th in the league, with 1.68. For actual goals scored and conceded, Manchester United have averaged 1.77 and 1.38 away – scoring more and conceding less than their metrics.
Atletico are in average form coming in to this match, having won 3 and lost 2 of their last 5 matches (LAL). They have also kept a clean sheet in 50% of their home matches, and have failed to score just twice.
Manchester United are in fair form, having won 3 and drawn 2 of their last 5 matches (Premier League). They have scored in all of their away league matches, but also have kept just 3 away clean-sheets.
Atletico have not been as defensively solid as their were last season when they won the league. Last season, they conceded just 25 goals, but already after 25 matches they have conceded 34. In their last 5 matches, they have conceded 10 goals.
Manchester United have scored and conceded in 4 of their last 5 matches.
The recommendation was to back ‘Both Teams To Score – Yes’ at a decent price of 1.91 for 3 points (Betfair Exchange)
Both Teams To Score – Yes
I opened a back position on ‘Yes’ for £610 at an average price of 2.09. This was then traded out slightly to limit risk and exposure following an early goal from Atletico. However, the match finished 1-1 after Manchester United equalized in the 80th minute, creating a £104 profit.
Thursday, 24th February, 2022
Arsenal v Wolves (PRL)
Arsenal go in to this match as favourites, currently priced at 1.74, Wolves at 6 with the draw at 3.75.
Arsenal are currently 6th in the league with 42 points after 23 matches played. Wolves are 7th on 40 points after 24 matches.
In terms of xG, Arsenal are 4th best in the league for home games, with 2.06. For xGA at home, Arsenal are 4th in the league, with 1.23. For actual goals scored and conceded, Arsenal have averaged 1.67 and 0.75 at home – both scoring and conceding less than their metrics.
Wolves are 3rd worst for xG for away games, with 0.9. For xGA away, they are 9th worst, with 1.71. For actual goals scored and conceded, Wolves have averaged 1.08 and 0.67 away – scoring more and conceding less than their metrics.
Arsenal are in good form coming in to this match, having won 3, lost 1 and drawn 1 of their last 5 matches (PRL). Their home form is also good, having won 8 of 12 matches, with just 2 losses. They have also failed to score just twice at home.
Wolves are in good form, having won 4 and lost 1 of their last 5 matches (PRL). They have also won 4 of their last 5 away matches, with the loss coming against Manchester City.
In 5 of the last 7 meetings between these sides, Arsenal have won 2, Wolves 3 and there has been 2 draws. 5 of these matches have seen both teams scoring.
In terms of injuries and absentees, both sides are in good shape, with Wolves also recently welcoming back striker Neto after a long lay-off. Wolves also appear due positive regression in terms of goals. This is evident in their last 2 matches (against Tottenham and Leicester), where they scored twice in both.
Therefore, the value recommendation is to back ‘Both Teams To Score – Yes’ at a decent value price of 2.24 for 3 points (Betfair Exchange).
Both Teams To Score – Yes
I opened a back position on ‘Yes’ at 2.24 for £100. Wolves scored first in 10 minutes, which put the trade in to a good position to allow capital and profit risk management, by closing a portion of the trade. The match ended 2-1 to Arsenal and £78 profit was banked.
Friday, 25th February, 2022
Southampton v Norwich (PRL)
Southampton go in to this match as favourites, currently priced at 1.59, Norwich at 6.4 with the draw at 4.5.
Southampton are currently 10th in the league with 32 points after 25 matches played. Norwich are bottom on 17 points after also 25 matches.
In terms of xG, Southampton are 11th best in the league for home games, with 1.53. For xGA at home, Southampton are 8th worst in the league, with 1.47. For actual goals scored and conceded, Southampton have averaged 1.33 and 0.83 at home – both scoring and conceding less than their metrics.
Norwich are bottom for xG for away games, with 0.83. For xGA away, they are also bottom, with 2.06. For actual goals scored and conceded, Norwich have averaged 0.58 and 2.33 away – scoring less and conceding more than their metrics.
Southampton are in fair form coming in to this match, having won 2, lost 1 and drawn 2 of their last 5 matches (PRL). Their home form is also fair, where they have only lost once. But the problem is that they have drawn 11 out of 25 matches.
Norwich are in average form, having won 2, lost 2 and drawn 1 of their last 5 matches (PRL). More concerning is that they have scored just 0.58 goals away, and lost 8 of their 12 away matches.
Southampton have performed well recently, beating Everton and Tottenham, whilst getting draws against both the Manchester clubs. Norwich should not pose too much of a problem for them today, since they have conceded 7 goals in their last 2 matches.
The value recommendation was to back ‘Southampton (-1)’ in the Asian Handicap market at a decent value price of 2.01 for 3 points (Betfair Exchange).
Asian Handicap – Southampton (-1)
I opened a back position on the above selection for £100 at 2.02. Southampton scored in the first-half, before following up with another goal in the second-half. I then closed the trade, banking £94 profit.
Conclusion
This week has covered predominantly Premier League matches (4), but also UEFA Champions League and the Spanish La Liga. The reason the high amount of Premier League matches covered, was to previously postponed matches due to Covid-19 taking place. It is also a favoured league due to the high levels of liquidity in most markets. This makes for tighter spreads between back and lay prices, and being able to enter / exit markets much easier at the desired price.
Overall, the ‘Trade Of The Day’ recommendations covered in this Diary Issue were all successful, and produced 22.17 points profit, at an average recommended price 2.06:
At £20 / point, this week would have banked £443 in profit, tax free. At £50 per point, this would have made over £1,100 for the week.
Looking ahead, we have more weekend Premier League and European leagues in action. Mid-week Premier League and Championship matches, FA Cup and Spanish Copa Del Rey, to name but a few. All in all, no shortage of matches to analyse, make selections and to profit from.
Once again, it’s good to be back and thanks for your patience.
Pro-Trader
ProTrader started his career and fascination with the financial markets as an Index Analyst at FTSE. He has since consulted for 15 years for some of the top Financial Institutions and Investment Banks in the world, where he specialized in financial instruments, pricing data, trading platforms and risk management solutions. He first started trading sports markets in early 2000, after the introduction and discovery of Betfair. He now trades the financial markets whilst working on entrepreneurial ventures with a focus on sports trading apps and e-commerce. In his spare time, he is writing a series of books soon to be published, enjoys outdoor pursuits with his family, learning Russian and of course, trading football markets.