Diary of a Football Trader – Issue 81

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Pro-Trader started his career and fascination with the financial markets as an Index Analyst at FTSE, London.  He has since consulted for 15 years for some of the top Financial Institutions and Investment Banks in the world, where he specialized in financial instruments, pricing data, trading platforms and risk management solutions.  He first started trading sports markets in early 2000, after the introduction and discovery of Betfair. He now trades the financial markets whilst working on entrepreneurial ventures with a focus on sports trading apps and e-commerce.  In his spare time, he is writing a series of books which have been published, enjoys outdoor pursuits with his family, and of course, trading football markets.

 

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Diary of a Football Trader – Issue 81

Hello and welcome to the latest edition of the Diary of a Football Trader.

This is the latest edition of the Trade Of The Day matches, which covers last week: Saturday 26^th –  Friday 4^th March.

Saturday, 26th February, 2022

Crystal Palace v Burnley (PRL)

Crystal Palace go in to this match as favourites, currently priced at 2.08, Burnley at 4.3, with the draw at 3.4.

Crystal Palace are currently 11th in the league with 29 points after 26 matches played. Norwich are bottom on 17 points after also 26 matches.

In terms of xG, Crystal Palace are 13th best in the league for home games, with 1.39. For xGA at home, Crystal Palace are 5th best in the league, with 1.24. For actual goals scored and conceded, Crystal Palace have averaged 1.62 and 1.23 at home – scoring more and conceding the same as heir metrics.

Burnley are 16th for xG for away games, with 1.01. For xGA away, they are 2nd bottom, with 2.02. For actual goals scored and conceded, Burnley have averaged 0.92 and 1.58 away – both scoring and conceding less than their metrics.

Burnley will struggle to break down a high-ranking Palace home defense due for positive regression, while the latter’s attacking numbers against the league’s worst sides should cause concern for Burnley.

Therefore, the value recommendation was to back ‘Crystal Palace’ at a decent value price of 2.08 for 3 points (Betfair Exchange).

 

Match Odds – Crystal Palace

I took an initial starting position on backing Crystal Palace which was then increased in increments to achieve an average price of 2.33 for £120. Crystal Palace scored in just the 9^th minute, and the trade was in a good profitable position. In hindsight, this position should have been closed immediately. However, it wasn’t and Burnley equalized in the 46^th minute. With the match ending 1-1, a £120 loss was taken.

It was expected that Crystal Palace would start winning more at home, where they are hard to beat, but the trend continued here, where they have drawn nearly 45% of home matches.

 

 

 

Sunday, 27th February, 2022

West Ham United v Wolves (PRL)

West Ham go in to this match as favourites, currently priced at 2.1, Wolves at 4.3, with the draw at 3.35.

West Ham are currently 6th in the league with 42 points after 26 matches played. Wolves are 8th on 40 points after 25 matches.

In terms of xG, West Ham are 7th best in the league for home games, with 1.66. For xGA at home, West Ham are 11th  in the league, with 1.43. For actual goals scored and conceded, West Ham have averaged 1.85 and 1.46 at home – scoring and conceding more than their metrics.

Wolves are 19th for xG for away games, with 0.89. For xGA away, they are 7th worst, with 1.79. For actual goals scored and conceded, Wolves have averaged 1.08 and 0.77 away – scoring more and conceding less than their metrics.

Wolves have scored in all of their last 5 away matches. As stated recently, their goals scored is due positive regression. West Ham have not failed to score in all of their home games.

Therefore, the trade recommendation was to back ‘Both Teams To Score – Yes’ at a decent value price of 2.1 for 3 points (Betfair Exchange).

 

Both Teams To Score – Yes

I built a lay position on ‘No’ for £70 at an average price of 1.68. As the match wore on, I decided to close the trade for a £26 loss. The match finished 1-0 West Ham.

 

 

Monday, 28th February, 2022

West Brom v Swansea (CHA)

 

West Brom go in to this match as favourites, currently priced at 1.77, Swansea at 5.7, with the draw at 3.8.

West Brom are currently 13th in the league with 46 points after 33 matches played. Swansea are 17th on 38 points after 31 matches.

In terms of xG, West Brom are 2nd best in the league for home games, with 2.05. For xGA at home, West Brom are top in the league, with 0.89. For actual goals scored and conceded, West Brom have averaged 1.4 and 0.53 at home – both scoring and conceding less than their metrics.

Swansea are 14th for xG in away games, with 1.23. For xGA away, they are 10th best, with 1.39. For actual goals scored and conceded, Swansea have averaged 0.81 and 1.81 away – scoring less and conceding more than their metrics.

Coming in to this match, West Brom are in poor form, having lost 4 and drawn 1 of their last 5 matches. They have also won just once in their last 11 matches.

Swansea's form has also been relatively poor, where they have lost 3 of their last 5, failing to score in these defeats. They have also failed to score 7 times in their away matches (44%), which includes their last 4 away matches.

Therefore, the value recommendation was to back ‘Both Teams To Score – No’ at a fair value price of 1.84 for 3 points (Betfair Exchange).

 

Both Teams To Score – No

I wasn’t able to actively trade this match, but with the score finishing 0-2, but 3 points profit was banked for members. 

 

Tuesday, 1st March, 2022

Burnley v Leicester (PRL)

Leicester go in to this match as favourites, currently priced at 2.6, Burnley at 3.05, with the draw at 3.45.

Burnley are currently 18th in the league with 21 points after 24 matches played. Leicester are 13th on 27 points after 23 matches.

In terms of xG, Burnley are 15th in the league for home games, with 1.32. For xGA at home, Burnley are 6th worst in the league, with 1.55. For actual goals scored and conceded, Burnley have averaged 0.91 and 0.91 at home – both scoring and conceding less than their metrics.

Leicester are 13th for xG in away games, with 1.32. For xGA away, they are 5th worst, with 1.85 expected goals. For actual goals scored and conceded, Leicester have averaged 1.45 and 2.27 away – both scoring less and conceding more than their metrics.

Coming in to this match, Burnley are in fair form, having lost just 1 of their last 5 matches. They have also lost just once in their last 7 matches (against Liverpool).

Leicester's form has been poor, where they have lost 3 of their last 5, whilst drawing 2. However, this has been a tough run of fixtures, against sides all in the top-half of the table.  They also managed to score in all but 1 of these games (Liverpool). Jamie Vardy (9 goals) is also expected to be fit to make the squad for this match. Further more, Leicester have failed to score just once in their 11 away games this season.

Burnley's form has improved of late, and they have scored in all but 1 of their last 5 matches (Liverpool). Top-scorer Maxwell Cornet (6 goals) is also expected to return to the side for this fixture.

In the 6 previous meetings between these sides, over 2.5 goals has occurred 5 times, and both teams to score has occurred in all of these matches.

Therefore, the recommendation was to back ‘Both Teams To Score – Yes’ at a fair value price of 1.8 for 3 points (Betfair Exchange).

 

Both Teams To Score – Yes

I held an open position on ‘Yes’, but as the match drew on, scoreless I closed for a £102 loss. However, I had two other positions in the ‘match odds’ and ‘over/under 2.5 goals’ markets that were successful and managed to off-set some of the main trade loss.  The match finished 0-2 Leicester.

 

 

 

Wednesday, 2nd March, 2022

Southampton v West Ham United (FAC)

Southampton go in to this match as favourites, currently priced at 2.4, West Ham at 3.25, with the draw at 3.55.

Although this is a cup match, both sides are in the Premier League, and so this larger data sample will be used for analysis.

Southampton are currently 9th in the league with 35 points after 26 matches played. West Ham are 5th on 45 points after 27 matches.

In terms of xG, Southampton are 8th best in the league for home games, with 1.65. For xGA at home, Southampton are 9th best in the league, with 1.43. For actual goals scored and conceded, Southampton have averaged 1.38 and 0.77 at home – both scoring and conceding less than their metrics.

West Ham are 5th for xG in away games, with 1.58. For xGA away, they are 8th best, with 1.65 expected goals. For actual goals scored and conceded, West Ham have averaged 1.62 and 1.15 away – scoring more and conceding less than their metrics.

Coming in to this match, Southampton are in good form, having not lost in their last 5 matches. They have also scored in their last 11 home matches – failing to score just twice in all home games.

West Ham have also shown decent form, where they have not lost in their last 5. However, they have conceded in their last 7 away matches, and have recorded just 3 clean sheets away.

In the 7 previous meetings between these sides, Southampton have won 1, West Ham 4 and there have been 2 draws. In terms of shots on target, both sides are in the top half of the table. However, they are also both in the bottom half of the table for clean sheets.

Both sides should see this fixture as winnable and a chance to progress to the next round of the competition, and should field strong sides.

Therefore, the value recommendation was to back ‘Both Teams To Score – Yes’ at a fair value price of 1.78 for 3 points (Betfair Exchange).

Both Teams To Score – Yes

I started backing ‘Yes’ in increments, starting at 1.78, but then up to 2.4, which was my last taken position before a goal came. This built a position for £65 at an average price of 2. Once Southampton scored in the 31^st minute, it wasn’t worth backing anymore. With West Ham equalizing in the 60^th minute, this created a £63 profit. At the same time, I was laying under 2.5 goals using the same drip-feed method to increase value, for a further £88 profit. This was achieved with an average lay price of 1.65 with just £58 risk.

 

 

Thursday, 3rd March, 2022

Real Betis v Rayo Vallecano (CDR)

Betis go in to this match as favourites, currently priced at 1.79, Rayo Vallecano at 5.2, with the draw at 4.

This is the 2nd leg of the semi-final of the Spanish Copa Del Rey, with Betis taking a 2-1 advantage in to this match.

Betis are currently 3rd in La Liga with 46 points after 26 matches played. Rayo Vallecano are 12th on 31 points after 25 matches.

In terms of xG, Betis are 2nd best in La Liga for home games, with 2.02. For xGA at home, Betis are 10th, with 1.28. For actual goals scored and conceded in La Liga, Betis have averaged 1.92 and 1.15 at home – both scoring and conceding less than their metrics.

Rayo Vallecano are 13th for xG in away games, with 1.26. For xGA away, they are 12th, with 1.52. For actual goals scored and conceded, Rayo Vallecano have averaged 0.67 and 1.75 away – scoring less and conceding more than their metrics.

Coming in to this match, Betis are in good form, having lost just 1 of their last 5 matches. They have also scored 10 goals in these matches – and have scored 48 in total, which is 2nd best in the league, just behind Real Madrid. However, they have also conceded the 2nd most goals (32) of teams in the top 6 of La Liga.

Rayo Vallecano are in poor form , and have not won in their last 5 matches. They have also not kept a clean sheet in any of their 12 La Liga away matches, and have failed to score in 50% of these.

In the 7 previous meetings between these sides, Betis have won 3, Rayo Vallecano 0, with 4 draws.

Betis are favoured to win here, but as they have a 1 goal lead, a draw would also see them through to the final. Rayo Vallecano will have to come out and try and overturn this deficit, which could result in a high-scoring match. Betis also have the 2nd highest average goals per match in La Liga, with 3.08.

Therefore, the value recommendation was to back ‘Over 2.5 Goals’ at a price of 1.87 for 3 points (Betfair Exchange).

Over / Under 2.5 Goals – Over

I started laying ‘under’ in increments, starting at 2, but then down to 1.24. This built a position for £130 at an average lay price of 1.54. The match regained goalless, deep in to the second half, and so I closed the position at 1.12 and took a £49 loss. A goal was scored in the 80^th minute, and another followed in stoppage time. The match ended 1-1, and so this selection was unfortunately unsuccessful.

 

 

Friday, 4th March, 2022

Lorient v Lyon (LI1)

Lyon go in to this match as favourites, currently priced at 1.88, Lorient at 4.6, with the draw at 3.9.

Lorient are currently 16th in Ligue 1 with 24 points after 26 matches played. Lyon are 10th on 38 points after also 26 matches.

In terms of xG, Lorient are 3rd worst for home games, with 1.14. For xGA at home, Lorient are 8th worst, with 1.29. For actual goals scored and conceded, Lorient have averaged 0.83 and 0.83 at home – both scoring and conceding less than their metrics.

Lyon are 3rd for xG in away games, with 1.53. For xGA away, they are 4th worst, with 1.71. For actual goals scored and conceded, Lyon have averaged 0.92 and 1.5 away – both scoring and conceding less than their metrics.

Coming in to this match, Lorient are in average form. Further, they have kept a clean sheet in 33% of matches, whilst also failed to score in 33% of matches.

Lyon are in the same form , having won 2 and lost 2 of their last 5. However, their away form is distinctively poor, where they have won just 3 times in the last 12 outings.

In the 7 previous meetings between these sides, Lorient have won 2, Lyon 2, with 3 draws.

This looks like a tight cagey game, but given Lyons poor away record and history against Lorient, they don't seem likely to take 3 points tonight.

Therefore, the value recommendation is to look at the Double Chance Market ‘Home or Draw’ at a decent value price of 2.12 for 3 points (Betfair Exchange).

 

Double Chance – Home or Draw

I opened a back position on the above selection for £200 at 2.12. Lyon got off to a fast start, and scored in the 5^th minute. The trade was now in a precarious position, but it was expected Lorient would soon equalize. However, Lyon followed up with a second goal, so it was not worth exiting the trade. Lorient scored in the 57^th minute, so no action was taken – just waiting them to follow with another. However, Lyon went on to score twice more and the match finished 1-4 creating a £200 loss.

 

 

Conclusion

This week has been disappointing, particularly since the average price for trades has fallen below 2. If you have been a regular follower of this Diary, then you will know that this does not happen very often. However, the matches and markets that have been selected and traded have been decided by very fine margins. Just like a VAR call, sometimes they go your way, sometimes they don’t.

Overall, the ‘Trade Of The Day’ recommendations covered in this Diary Issue produced a 10.14 point loss.

 

 

Although this is disappointing, there is always next week where profitable trades will be made. Losing 10 points is annoying, I know. I don’t like it, because as you can see I make the exact trades that I advise on. I haven’t seen anyone else showing their actual wins and losses on their own selections.

 

Pro-Trader