World Cup Betting: Day 10
This article was first published to the Ultimate Stats Betting Pack, World Cup group
A copy of the Ultimate Stats Betting Pack for the 2018 World Cup in Russia available here.
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We landed our Best Bet for the second time in three days, but it was left very, very late by Brazil. I was getting ready to kick the dog as we approached the ninety minutes, it would have been somewhat typical if the first 0-0 had come in the Brazil match. We got there in the end but Brazil definitely look beatable in this tournament, and we're still waiting for one of the top sides to really put in a performance.
The other notable observation so far is how much VAR is effecting games. This is just a personal feeling, rather than anything more objective, but I'm starting to wonder how we allow for VAR from a betting perspective. On three notable occasions so far, VAR has reversed a decision by a referee that pre world cup would have stood, and would most likely have led to our bets winning. Now, I'm not saying the over turned decisions were incorrect but rather do we need to assess how a game is going to go, from a betting perspective, differently and through the prism of VAR?
I don't have the answer to this but take Sweden v South Korea – correct decision to award the penalty but had the referees decision stood it would have most likely finished 0-0. England v Tunisia, soft penalty and debatable, had that not gone in England would most likely have added to their tally and landing at least a -1.5. Then take last nights Brazil – Costa Rica, again it was probably the right decision to over turn the referees initial decision of a penalty for Neymar, and our bet did win in the end, but the last 20+ minutes would have been a lot more comfortable had the penalty stood and scored.
I'd love to hear folks thoughts on this. Probably good for Football in general in the long run, but I feel it does add any extra layer of complexity for bettors, at least in the short term.
(Note: all recommended bets are 1 unit / point stake unless clearly stated)
World Cup Day 10 – Best Bet
Mexico were as equally impressive as Germany were poor. The tactics deployed by Mexico were absolutely spot on and executed perfectly.
They'll have huge belief going into this game and you would have to side with them against a pretty poor South Korean side. Honestly, the only way Mexico don't win this, will be through their own actions and if they chop and change too much, which their manager is known to do.
Despite this minor concern, we'll keep the faith and back the Mexicans to secure another three points.
Mexico win at 1.70
Today's other World Cup games;
Belgium made hard work of their first game against Panama until the first goal went in, and what a beauty it was by Mertens too. But once they got the break through it was a very accomplished performance by this fancied side.
Putting the England and Belgium performances side by side, you would have to say that the Belgium's was the more balanced and accomplished of the two over the 90 minutes. That said England have created a road map for the Belgiums here, and that is to move the ball quickly, high intensity and get into them early, and I don't expect the Belgiums to be as casual in front of goal.
Germany v Sweden
At first glance, this game has the feel of Argentina v Croatia. However, there are a couple of key differences here.
Firstly, Germany are not Argentina. They do not have the same reliance on a single player, they are World Champions for a reason, and despite the reported issues between the Bling-bling gang (Ozil, Khedira, Boateng, Draxler), and the the Bavarians (Neuer, Hummels, Muller, Kroos), this is still Germany and the Germans always find a way.
Secondly, Sweden are most definitely not Croatia or Mexico. They do not have the players or the mindset to approach this game, on the front foot, the way the Mexicans did. Sweden will be Sweden, tight, organised, defensive and a threat at set pieces.
Tactically this could favour the Germans in the end.
This article was first published to the Ultimate Stats Betting Pack, World Cup group
A copy of the Ultimate Stats Betting Pack for the 2018 World Cup in Russia available here.
Jon is the Founder and Chief Tipster at Football Advisor and Predictoloy. He started life as data analyst in the digital marketing field before find his true calling in the world of Football and Horse Racing Betting.
Jon has been sharing his professional expertise since 2009 and specialises in using objective data analysis and subjective experience of betting built up over more than a decade of professional betting.
In 2014, Jon also launched (and continues to run) the trusted Football Advisor service service which provides a variety of football and horse racing betting models and portfolios. A few years later, Jon launched the Predictology platform which is the worlds first betting system builder and analyser covering a wealth of football betting related statistics covering more than 200,000 matches.
Jon has also lent his knowledge and expertise to several of the trusted Premium Services offered by the respected Secret Betting Club, including Football Lay Profits. Racing Bet Profits and, most recently, Racing Lay Profits.