World Cup Betting: Day 11

This article was first published to the Ultimate Stats Betting Pack, World Cup group
A copy of the Ultimate Stats Betting Pack for the 2018 World Cup in Russia available here.

Our best bet won again, feels like we are starting to get a bit of momentum here now. After tomorrows games we'll do another review on where the tournament bets are sitting after completion of the second round and what we want / need from round 3.

Thank you to everyone who shared their comments in response to my views on VAR and it's impact on both the tournament so far and our betting. I thought I'd share here a few extracts from some of these:

Jules Nelson raised a couple of very good points, the first of which I'll come back to shortly.

some things are doing my head in when you have VAR we can talk about Harry Kane but i have never in my 40+ years of watching football seen what happened in swiss game 2 yes 2 players bringing mitrovich down and we have VAR that is ridiculous that's making me angry thinking about it now grrr…

but I look at it this way,i don't mind losing money when its fair and as long as its correct decision,that's my tuppence worth regards Jules

FA response – I think that is the biggest issue with VAR at the moment, the inconsistency. We had it again last night in the Germany match. What concerns me more than inconsistency in applying VAR, is that it actually feels now that games could be much easier manipulated by some unseen dark forces (fifa, corporations or the red right hand, take your pick). It just feels to me that it is so much easier to ‘decide' to ignore one thing over another. Maybe I'm getting paranoid in my old age…

On the second piont, this is a good mantra for us to all have when it comes to betting, VAR or not, but this only works if ‘all' decisions are pulled up and applied fairly…

David Jones had some similar views to Jules on the inconsistency of it all

I would like to know how they seem to miss so many things on VAR several clear penalties.

Also how many cases of simulation have been missed,I thought FIFA were determined to stamp it out The crowd and the viewers dont know whats going on,what is being reviewed and what isnt. Surely a system like cricket where you hear clearly the off field Umpire and how he reaches his decision The cynic in me says that at some point the failings of VAR will knock somebody out of the competition probably England but certainly not Russia !

FA response – I think that is all we are really asking for. Clarity and Consistency with how and when it is being applied. If this is really the route we are going in Football, then perhaps each team needs to have two challenges per match. This would also help combat against potential nefarious manipulation of games.

If you have any further thoughts you'd like to share on VAR, the World Cup in general please feel free to let us know and we'll share the most interesting comments in our next update.

(Note: all recommended bets are 1 unit / point stake unless clearly stated)

Day 11 – Best Bet

England v Panama

England's first half against Tunisia will be up there as one of the brightest, strongest performances by any side at the tournament so far, despite going in level. However, Belgium showed England how to take your chances when they come last night, dispatching Tunisia 5-2.

Panama are sure to put in a valiant effort but you really can not look beyond three points for England here. Belgium started slowly against Panama but when they did make the break through, it was pretty easy going from there and finished 3-0. If England start in the same manor as they did against Tunisia, I expect England to make an early break through and for the evening to be a more comfortable affair than the other night for England and their fans.

England -1.5 at 1.75

Today's other games;

Colombia v Poland

As favourites, these two sides lost their opening games in contrasting fortunes and heeps extra pressure on this one.

I'm finding really hard to pick which way to go with this one and it would be a definite no bet for me. However, as i have to put a recommendation for every game, I'll play it down the middle and go for the draw.

Colombia / Poland to draw at 3.50

Japan v Senegal

Both sides recorded what were perhaps surprising victories in their opening games. A little less surprising regarding Senegal for anyone who has been following our recent analysis.

This likely to be a tight and low scoring encounter and I would say Senegal will just about have the edge between the two. Senegal have won 2 and drawn one of their previous three matches between the two. Senegal have also conceded just 5 goals in their last 9 competitive matches.

Senegal to Win To Nil at 3.50

This article was first published to the Ultimate Stats Betting Pack, World Cup group
A copy of the Ultimate Stats Betting Pack for the 2018 World Cup in Russia available here.

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