EMOTIONAL BETTING PART IV – NOT GIVING A FLUFF!
“Swearing and gambling is a match made in heaven!”
I'm quite proud of that quote. I had to Google it to make sure I'd not nicked it and it would appear that I didn't!
I used to swear all of the time when gambling. I like to think that I don't gamble anymore, rather invest. And I certainly don't swear anymore, well, certainly not when placing and investing time in my bets.
So, let's looks at an example of how emotion can “fluff” our betting up.
I'm not a big fan of Sam Twiston-Davies, for example. I think he falters under pressure. He can get a horse up to the final furlong but if there's stiff competition, he then seems to buckle and rarely gets his mount over the line in first place.
However, whilst analysing a race, we DO need to take into account a jockey's skill. Sam Twiston-Davies is more than capable and has a few Grade One races under his belt to prove it.
So, when analysing a race and I find Twiston is on board, what do I do? Well, if the horse and conditions suit, I back it, knowing full well, that it should be a winner.
Roll back 7 or 8 years ago and if a jockey I didn't like was riding a horse, I would swerve it. If the horse won, the jockey “had a lucky break” and if it didn't, it was because the jockey was an “idiot!”
That cost me. My emotions got in the way, A LOT!
What am I getting at here?
Going back to the second article in this series I said – Betting, in its simplest form, is monetising our opinions.
It's my opinion that Sam Twiston-Davies is a mediocre jockey. There are other people that think he's the best jockey, ever! Therefore, they would be more inclined to back the horse than I would be. However, our opinions are generally based on emotion.
“I think Liverpool are the greatest football team in the world”
Therefore, I should back them every time they play, right?
We should be looking at the stats, the form, the line-up, the home/away advantage and so on. When we have enough information, we can then make an informed decision as to whether we should be investing in that team or not.
So, to conclude, we need to remove our emotion and look at the bare facts before placing any bet. Make sure you check yourself before parting with any money.
Are you betting your selection because you have an element of emotion attached to that decision?
Or are you betting because you KNOW that you have done all of your homework and the stats add up?
Only you can decide but let me know in the comments if an emotional bet has ever let you down and how you felt?