The One Big Mistake Football Traders Make
Pro Trading Tips – The One Big Mistake Football Traders Make
Today I want to share with you a common, yet big mistake many new Football Traders make and how you can avoid it.
You don't need to be right, to make a profit…
Let's say that you want to trade the Over 2.5 goals.
What do you think is the first thing that we need to find?
We'd probably want to start identifying games where we strongly believe the match will go over 2.5 goals, right?
As traders, we don't actually care whether a match is going to have three or more goal or not. What we care about is whether the first one or two goals are going to come at the points in the game for us to be able to action our profitable trades.
Many of the games that go over 2.5 goals can have one, two or even three late goals in the game.
Think about it, if we are entering an over 2.5 goals trade pre-match or early in the first half – it's not going to be much good to us if the two or three goals come late in the game, like this one:
Both goals came after the 85th-minute mark; so we would not have gotten over 2.5 goals, nor would the price have moved enough for us to be able to action a profitable trade.
Let's take a look at the MLS.
Sporting Kansas City has an average of 62% of their games going over 2.5 goals. That's above average and they could well come into our reckoning for an over 2.5 goals trade
But wait a minute, what's this?
By far and away, the greatest percentage of the goals they score AND concede come after the 60th minute. In fact, 22 of the 47 goals seen in their games (47%) come after the 60th minute.
If we assume we are entering our over 2.5 goals trade between kick off and the 20th minute, this is going to be no good to us, at best we'll get a small profit or scratch in many of their games.
What do we look for instead when trading Over 2.5 goals?
In an ideal world, we'll be looking to trade the market where we feel the prices are wrong and that we have value (usually when over 2.5 goals is => 2.00).
This means we are likely to get into our trade somewhere between the first minute and the 20th minute. The ideal scenario for us after is to see a goal (or two) scored between the 20th and 55th minute, to give us the best trading out opportunity, and the highest return.
So, yes, we do want to find games where we think there will be at least one goal. But more importantly, we want games where the first (and possibly the second) goal will be scored in that hot-zone of 20-55 minutes.
What I would be looking for before considering an Over 2.5 goals trade
Staying in the MLS, the two New York-based sides present much better trading opportunities based on the pre-match statistics.
(note: pre-match stats only tell us so much, this should not be your only source of assessment)
New York Red Bull (on the right), see the greatest concentration of goals from the 31st to the 75th (59%) minute, with 25% of those coming between the 31st and 45th minute, which is much more in line with what we are looking for.
(Hint: take a look at their current goal times from 0-30 minutes, this could present another trading opportunity)
While New York FC (on the left) is almost perfect for our objectives.
69% of goals scored and 54% of goals conceded are in the first half, with only four of those coming before the 15th minute. Pick the right games involving NYFC and if these trends continue, then they will be a great team to trade over 2.5 goals.
Over 2.5 Goal Trading – Summary
Before entering any trades, think about the process of what you want to happen.
- When will you enter a trade
- What price do you need that to be
- What do you need to happen (e.g. a goal scored or not)
- When do you, ideally, want that to happen
- Doe the pre-match stats support the above
- Do the in-play stats support your pre-match intentions
Don't just think about the first part of the trade (your bet), think about the whole process of the bet, trade, profit and then apply that thinking to the research and analysis you need to do to support your trade.
Over 2.5 Goal Trading Strategy
Keen to put some of what we have learned today into practice?
1. Consider focusing on matches whether the home team is a strong favourite.
Why the home favourite? Teams playing at home are generally under more pressure to be offensive and try and score.
2. Look at the goal times and see if the home team scores frequently in the first half, particularly from 15-45 minutes.
3. You may also consider their goals conceded times and that of the opposition.
4. If all looking good, then consider entering the trade around the 15th minute (or above 2.0), then trade out for a profit or free bet once the first goal is scored
Want more articles like these? Have any suggestions/requests on us focusing on a particular market or sport for trading opportunities and strategies? Let us know in the comments below!
Goal Hunter Invitation
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- How to pick the right matches
- When to place your first bet
- When to place any subsequent bets if required
- When to lay (hedge) your bet
- And what to do if the game is not going the way we want
- How to identify and create value in the markets
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All the best,
Jon and the Football Advisor team
Jon is the Founder and Chief Tipster at Football Advisor and Predictoloy. He started life as data analyst in the digital marketing field before find his true calling in the world of Football and Horse Racing Betting.
Jon has been sharing his professional expertise since 2009 and specialises in using objective data analysis and subjective experience of betting built up over more than a decade of professional betting.
In 2014, Jon also launched (and continues to run) the trusted Football Advisor service service which provides a variety of football and horse racing betting models and portfolios. A few years later, Jon launched the Predictology platform which is the worlds first betting system builder and analyser covering a wealth of football betting related statistics covering more than 200,000 matches.
Jon has also lent his knowledge and expertise to several of the trusted Premium Services offered by the respected Secret Betting Club, including Football Lay Profits. Racing Bet Profits and, most recently, Racing Lay Profits.