Micro-Angles A Quick Look At How They Work
We've published a lot about how we trade, staking and various selections that we've bet on. I thought it was time that we showed you guys how we came up with some of our selections, how we trade/bet them and what we do with them.
Over the course of around four articles, we'll be looking at the lowdown!
But, the first thing that we need to do, is to define how we want to bet?
If it's straight-up betting, then this article is for you!
If it's trading, then it's still worth a read, but there are many more “criteria” that we need to analyze. That will be covered in articles in the future.
In terms of betting, we need to find angles that give us an edge. Now, this is something that everyone is capable of!
It might be –
Horse Going stats
Horse Course stats
Horse Distance stats
Combined stats of all of the above!
Now, don't get me wrong, they all have their merit. They are certainly something that I use, singularly to find selections but if we're looking for a reliable system, we need to delve a little deeper.
Putting together systems and micro-angles used to be all the rage. Every man and his dog would find a system, see that it worked and either used it for themselves or sold it.
There's one problem with all of that!
Systems don't work!
They're typically back-fitted and only work historically.
What I mean by that, is that when someone comes across a database and starts adding rules to find a profitable system, they're generally manipulating the results to SUIT their desire for profit.
Let's look at an example –
System One –
A horse carrying a weight of 11+ in a handicap
Jockey claiming 3 lbs
Left-handed tracks only
The horse has run in the last 21 days
Those are the type of system rules, that we've all paid 17 quid for in the past. Even I've been guilty of following such rules ina portfolio based on systems.
The problem with these sets of rules is, as follows –
There are four sets of rules. Each rule is unrelated to each other. That's your first clue!!
You might find that in handicaps, a horse carrying top-weight of 11+ has a high strike rate.
It gets better when you have a claimer on-board. You notice that left-handed tracks increase the strike rate and start to put the system in profit. You then see that horses who have run in the last three weeks are even better for the profit margins!
The problem with all of these rules is that they make sense BUT they are not correlated with each other.
Yes, a little bit boring, but essential when creating a system that WORKS!
A horse carrying 11+ in a handicap will do no better on a left-handed track than a right-handed one. That's open to debate BUT will a 3lb claimer make a difference in that example?
I appreciate that jockeys will analyze the course that they're riding at BUT left or right-handed courses will logically not make it into their thoughts!
Has the horse had blinkers attached to their head gear? Again, these are things, going forward, that make a system fail. They're factors that aren't considered when building a system and things that are “added” into future races.
A better way to analyze a race would be to look at rule 1. The weight of the horse and then use this to narrow down the field. Once you have narrowed it down and come up with a shortlist of horses, study the form and see if the horse has performed well, under similar conditions. Also, and this is really important…
Look at the market
It's all very well finding a selection, but if it's priced up at 66/1, then you may be missing something!
I'll be back next week to look at something called back fitting, how it cocks mosts systems up and a mathematical way of making sure a system will continue to work.