Trading The Rugby World Cup – The Set Up
Following this month's theme of trading “stuff”, with everything mostly geared toward football and horse racing, I thought I'd take a look at what I believe to be the first “proper” game of rugby in this year's World Cup.
Wales take on Australia in Pool D.
Of the five teams that are in the pool, these two are the most likely to be in the serious games. The whole tournament has been going on for a week, now and it's literally been 1/50 about the favorites and 100/1 about the outsider. It's very difficult to trade when the odds are so short!
However, this is the first game that has the odds very close together and both teams have an outstanding chance of clinching the win.
So, in terms of trading the game, this is my set-up/mindset/gameplan!
Here are the odds for the three outcomes –
Wales win – 1.85
Australia win – 2.34
Draw – 25
Wales are down as the favorite. The likeliest to win.
As with any trading/betting, we need to look at why this might be the case and then agree or disagree.
Of course, the first port of call would be either personal opinion or using the media to gain an insight into why these odds have been established.
However, we need to look at some facts before we dive into any trading.
Wales were number one in the world before the tournament started but this was short-lived as other teams claimed victory in their respective games in this very tournament.
Wales also managed to beat Australia last time out, back in November, albeit a paltry 3 point victory.
Gatland has announced an unchanged team to take on the Wallabies and this is putting the Welsh at the top of the market.
However, although I think Wales will be looking to dominate the game, I don't think the odds are as accurate as they should be.
Over the last 70 years, Australia have dominated the Welsh and from 42 games, 30 have been won by the Southern Hemisphere team, 11 to Wales and 1 draw (the highest scoring draw in history!). Wales won on home turf last year and the Wallabies will have a slight edge in terms of timezones and climate.
My first entry point in the game will be to back Australia for the win and I fully expect them to look to dominate the ball, get a strong set-piece going early and score the first try. From there, I will then look to lay off the initial back bet with a hedge and lock-in a profit no matter what happens.
As the game progresses, I will then look to make more trades based on the scoreline and go from there.
Make sure you check back on this article at half-time on Sunday morning, where I'll update my position and what I'll be trading the second half 🙂
