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Is Profit On Turnover (POT) Key To Successful Betting

Profit on Turnover (POT%): Is it Sometimes a More Important Metric Than ROI?

 

Whether you discuss sports betting, or any other form of investment, the primary metric that concerns people is Return on Investment (ROI). For many, ROI is the be-all and end-all of measuring investment performance. It is what we use when measuring the interest gleaned on a savings account, or your earnings from buying shares.

It is also extremely easy to measure. If you have a £1,000 betting bank, and 12 months later it is £1,500, your ROI for the year is 50%. The formula is basic:

 

Current Investment Value – Cost of Investment

___________________________________

Cost of Investment

In the above example, you get:

1500 – 1000 = 500

___________________

1000

500/1000 = 0.5

Multiply x 100 to get 50

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Is ROI Too Simplistic a Measurement for Sports Betting?

The quick answer is ‘yes.’ On the face of it, an ROI of 40% is better than one of 20%, but it is misleading. Imagine if you bet £1,000 on a horse at odds of 1.40, and it won. You would earn £400 for an ROI of 40%. It is excellent news for sure but doesn’t tell us a great deal about whether you are likely to become a profitable punter.

Let’s say you placed 200 bets of £10 in a year and made a profit of £200. Assuming you followed a flat staking strategy, you would be up 20 units in total. While 20 units doesn’t mark you out as bookie enemy #1, it at least suggests that you may know what you are doing. In a strict sense, your ROI is 20%, since you earned £200 profit on a £1,000 initial investment.

However, it still doesn’t tell you much about your betting efficiency. Is your current strategy and staking method working for you? The bare ROI metric isn’t anywhere near enough to find out.

This is where Profit on Turnover (POT) comes in. It potentially enables you to determine whether or not your need to improve your betting efficiency.

 

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What is Profit on Turnover (POT)?

POT (also known as Yield) is a measurement on your return per pound investment rather than return on your initial bankroll. When analysing the myriad of tipsters, you see online, POT is a significantly better way to decide if they are worth following. It is a metric also used in business, but one should approach it differently when calculating it for sports betting purposes.

Let’s say you run a business that sells carpets, fittings, and furniture to hotels. You’ll find that after expenses and paying yourself a wage; you would probably ‘go under’ if your POT isn’t at least 20%. Armed with this information, many punters would assume that they should also aim for a POT of 20%. They are usually shocked by the reality that a 5% POT is extremely good, especially if you are a ‘busy’ punter.

In our example, with the 20% ROI punter, you’ll find that his POT is significantly lower. Overall, he made 200 x £10, so his turnover is £2,000. 2000/200 means his POT is 10%, which is still pretty good. You now know that this punter has a potentially lucrative system, though there aren’t enough bets to gauge his ability correctly.

 

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Serious Bettors Use POT, But Don’t Fall for Tricks

Imagine if there were two competing tipping services (instead of the 7,000,000 available online).

Tipster A’s headline is that you can earn a POT of 20% on his tips for an easy monthly payment of £50.

Tipster B offers a POT of 10%, and you pay £80 per month.

In both cases, you have a starting bank of £5,000, use a flat staking plan, and use 2% of your bank per bet, which equates to £100.

Your brain is screaming at you to pick Tipster A. After all, he gives you a better POT and is cheaper. Yet a closer look at the numbers could reveal something very different.

Tipster A is a very selective tipster, and there is nothing wrong with that! He offers 200 tips during the year, and you earn a profit of £4,000. You have bet a total of £20,000 (200 x 100), so the POT is 4,000/20,000 = 0.2 x 100 = 20%.

Tipster B is more active and offers 800 tips. You have wagered a total of £80,000 (800 x 100). As the POT is 10%, you earn a profit of £8,000, precisely double what you would get with tipster A. Once you have paid the respective fees, you still come out well on top with Tipster B.

Tipster A has a higher POT at 20%, but a lower return on initial investment at 80% against 160%.

 

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Don’t Fall into the POT Trap

If you measure success via Profit on Turnover alone, there is a danger of you missing the bigger picture. It is the same situation with ROI. We are often guilty of focusing on the wrong data, sometimes to make us feel better about our decision making!

While POT is a good measure of efficiency, it doesn’t mean it will help boost your bank balance to a significant degree. What really matters is how much profit you can earn in pounds and pence. Would you prefer a POT of 20% and £4,000 profit or a POT of 10% and £8,000?

It is not as simple as just increasing your betting volume and placing more bets, it still needs to fit into a strategy, portfolio or tipster. Knowing that POT, or indeed ROI, isn’t everything, should enable you to improve how you bet.

There is no single metric taken in isolation that will prove the viability of a model, or tell you how much money you can make.

When considering POT, it is important to check the sample size of the data. The more ‘bets’ in the sample, the more confident that you can be about a particular model and be assured that it has an edge, rather than just luck.

 

Once you are satisfied with the sample size you can estimate the average bet volume per month or year. This then coupled with POT (or ROI), can give you a more realistic figure about how profitable an approach maybe and how much you can make over a given period, on average.

A POT of 18% is good, but may limit your earning potential if only provides 50 wagers a year! (Of course, in this example, you make look at increasing stakes if you can not increase bet volume)

Meanwhile, a POT of 6% can be very lucrative if you make 1,000 or 2,000 bets per annum!

What ever you approach, it is important to make a proper plan of attack, and analyse it regularly to see if it works for you and your own betting objectives.

The dream scenario may well be high volume with a high POT, but in the real world one model is unlikely to do that. It is more important to focus on balance in your betting portfolio with a mixture of low bet, high POT or ROI models, alongside a mixture of high volume models with lower POT or ROI expectations.

Put simply if you have a model(s) that delivers a decent POT (e.g. 5-10%) with a reasonably high volume of bets, allowing you to turn over your betting bank, will ensure you are on the path to profitable betting.

 

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Focus On Betting Bank Growth…

Any metric, be it POT, ROI or something else, like Strike Rate are sign posts to how your betting is performing.

What matters ultimately though, to you and I, as punters, is actual real money profit in your bank. Which, in the end, comes down to how much you multiply your betting bank into profit.

It’s not about achieving the best possible POT% or ROI%.

Growth in your bank is driven by two key factors:

 

• 1. Your Bet Volume (the number of bets you make and the average size of each bet)

 

• 2. Your Edge (the percentage profit you make for each £1 invested)

To maximise your success as a punter you must focus on both of these things.

Whether that is through one strategy, or multiple in a portfolio (recommended), you need a good volume of bets with a solid and reliable profit margin.

It's only then, through a combination of these two things that you will be able to grow your bank at a decent rate and win a considerable amount in real pounds profit each year.

 

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With an ROI of 30.11%,  a Profit on Turnover % (POT%) of 19.04% and an average strike rate of 67-70%, it is easy to see why this service is so popular with members.

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Competition	Description	Selection	Matched amount	Avg. price matched	P/L	Placed date	Strategy	1000
Spanish La Liga	15:00 Getafe v Valencia\Match Odds\Getafe	Getafe	55.07	2.1	60.58	8/2/20 14:57	Football Profits – Fav	1060.58
Greek Super League	16:00 PAOK v OFI\Match Odds\PAOK	PAOK	58.1	1.17	9.88	9/2/20 15:57	Football Profits – Fav	1070.46
German Bundesliga	17:00 Bayern Munich v RB Leipzig\Match Odds\Bayern Munich	Bayern Munich	58.1	1.48	-58.1	9/2/20 16:57	Football Profits – Fav	1012.36
English Premier League	20:00 Wolves v Leicester\Match Odds\Wolves	Wolves	55.68	2.74	-55.68	14/2/20 19:57	Football Profits – Fav	956.68
Spanish La Liga	15:00 Barcelona v Getafe\Match Odds\Barcelona	Barcelona	52.9	1.42	22.22	15/2/20 14:57	Football Profits – Fav	978.9
Belgian First Division A	17:00 Club Brugge v Waasland-Beveren\Match Odds\Club Brugge	Club Brugge	52.9	1.16	8.47	15/2/20 16:57	Football Profits – Fav	987.37
Spanish La Liga	17:30 Villarreal v Levante\Match Odds\Villarreal	Villarreal	54.01	1.58	31.33	15/2/20 17:27	Football Profits – Fav	1018.7
Italian Serie A	14:00 Juventus v Brescia\Match Odds\Juventus	Juventus	56	1.18	10.08	16/2/20 13:57	Football Profits – Fav	1028.78
Greek Super League	15:15 Xanthi v Lamia\Match Odds\Xanthi	Xanthi	56	2.12	-56	16/2/20 15:12	Football Profits – Fav	972.78
Spanish La Liga	20:00 Real Madrid v Celta Vigo\Match Odds\Real Madrid	Real Madrid	53.7	1.27	-53.7	16/2/20 19:57	Football Profits – Fav	919.08
English Premier League	20:00 Chelsea v Man Utd\Match Odds\Chelsea	Chelsea	51.02	2.04	-51.02	17/2/20 19:57	Football Profits – Fav	868.06
English Premier League	12:30 Chelsea v Tottenham\Match Odds\Chelsea	Chelsea	48.47	1.91	44.11	22/2/20 12:27	Football Profits – Fav	912.17
German Bundesliga	14:30 Mgladbach v Hoffenheim\Match Odds\Mgladbach	Mgladbach	50.67	1.62	-50.67	22/2/20 14:27	Football Profits – Fav	861.5
English Premier League	15:00 Southampton v Aston Villa\Match Odds\Southampton	Southampton	50.67	1.81	41.04	22/2/20 14:57	Football Profits – Fav	902.54
Spanish La Liga	15:00 Barcelona v Eibar\Match Odds\Barcelona	Barcelona	50.67	1.19	9.63	22/2/20 14:57	Football Profits – Fav	912.17
English Premier League	15:00 Crystal Palace v Newcastle\Match Odds\Crystal Palace	Crystal Palace	50.67	2.28	64.86	22/2/20 14:57	Football Profits – Fav	977.03
Spanish La Liga	17:30 Sociedad v Valencia\Match Odds\Sociedad	Sociedad	53.92	1.69	37.2	22/2/20 17:27	Football Profits – Fav	1014.23
English Premier League	14:00 Man Utd v Watford\Match Odds\Man Utd	Man Utd	55.78	1.64	35.7	23/2/20 13:57	Football Profits – Fav	1049.93
English Premier League	14:00 Wolves v Norwich\Match Odds\Wolves	Wolves	55.78	1.55	30.68	23/2/20 13:57	Football Profits – Fav	1080.61
English Premier League	16:30 Arsenal v Everton\Match Odds\Arsenal	Arsenal	59.1	2.02	60.28	23/2/20 16:27	Football Profits – Fav	1140.89
Greek Super League	17:30 AEK Athens v OFI\Match Odds\AEK Athens	AEK Athens	59.1	1.49	28.96	23/2/20 17:27	Football Profits – Fav	1169.85
Spanish La Liga	17:30 Getafe v Sevilla\Match Odds\Getafe	Getafe	59.1	2.66	-59.1	23/2/20 17:27	Football Profits – Fav	1110.75
Belgian First Division A	19:00 Gent v Sint Truiden\Match Odds\Gent	Gent	62.11	1.34	21.12	23/2/20 18:57	Football Profits – Fav	1131.87
Spanish La Liga	20:00 Atletico Madrid v Villarreal\Match Odds\Atletico Madrid	Atletico Madrid	60.6	1.73	44.24	23/2/20 19:57	Football Profits – Fav	1176.11
Spanish La Liga	13:00 Athletic Bilbao v Villarreal\Match Odds\Athletic Bilbao	Athletic Bilbao	63.87	2.3	83.04	1/3/20 12:57	Football Profits – Fav	1259.15
German Bundesliga	14:30 RB Leipzig v Leverkusen\Match Odds\RB Leipzig	RB Leipzig	63.87	1.54	-63.87	1/3/20 14:27	Football Profits – Fav	1195.28
Spanish La Liga	20:00 Real Madrid v Barcelona\Match Odds\Real Madrid	Real Madrid	64.83	2.26	81.69	1/3/20 19:57	Football Profits – Fav	1276.97
Danish Superliga	18:00 Midtjylland v SonderjyskE\Match Odds\Midtjylland	Midtjylland	68.91	1.35	24.12	2/3/20 17:57	Football Profits – Fav	1301.09
							Profit	301.09
							ROI	30.11%
							POT	19.04%
							Staked	1581.6

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TAGS > betting metrics, betting profits, pot, profit, profit on turnover, roi, successful betting, successful punting, yield