Is Profit On Turnover (POT) Key To Successful Betting
Profit on Turnover (POT%): Is it Sometimes a More Important Metric Than ROI?
Whether you discuss sports betting, or any other form of investment, the primary metric that concerns people is Return on Investment (ROI). For many, ROI is the be-all and end-all of measuring investment performance. It is what we use when measuring the interest gleaned on a savings account, or your earnings from buying shares.
It is also extremely easy to measure. If you have a £1,000 betting bank, and 12 months later it is £1,500, your ROI for the year is 50%. The formula is basic:
Current Investment Value – Cost of Investment
Cost of Investment
In the above example, you get:
1500 – 1000 = 500
500/1000 = 0.5
Multiply x 100 to get 50
Is ROI Too Simplistic a Measurement for Sports Betting?
The quick answer is ‘yes.’ On the face of it, an ROI of 40% is better than one of 20%, but it is misleading. Imagine if you bet £1,000 on a horse at odds of 1.40, and it won. You would earn £400 for an ROI of 40%. It is excellent news for sure but doesn’t tell us a great deal about whether you are likely to become a profitable punter.
Let’s say you placed 200 bets of £10 in a year and made a profit of £200. Assuming you followed a flat staking strategy, you would be up 20 units in total. While 20 units doesn’t mark you out as bookie enemy #1, it at least suggests that you may know what you are doing. In a strict sense, your ROI is 20%, since you earned £200 profit on a £1,000 initial investment.
However, it still doesn’t tell you much about your betting efficiency. Is your current strategy and staking method working for you? The bare ROI metric isn’t anywhere near enough to find out.
This is where Profit on Turnover (POT) comes in. It potentially enables you to determine whether or not your need to improve your betting efficiency.
What is Profit on Turnover (POT)?
POT (also known as Yield) is a measurement on your return per pound investment rather than return on your initial bankroll. When analysing the myriad of tipsters, you see online, POT is a significantly better way to decide if they are worth following. It is a metric also used in business, but one should approach it differently when calculating it for sports betting purposes.
Let’s say you run a business that sells carpets, fittings, and furniture to hotels. You’ll find that after expenses and paying yourself a wage; you would probably ‘go under’ if your POT isn’t at least 20%. Armed with this information, many punters would assume that they should also aim for a POT of 20%. They are usually shocked by the reality that a 5% POT is extremely good, especially if you are a ‘busy’ punter.
In our example, with the 20% ROI punter, you’ll find that his POT is significantly lower. Overall, he made 200 x £10, so his turnover is £2,000. 2000/200 means his POT is 10%, which is still pretty good. You now know that this punter has a potentially lucrative system, though there aren’t enough bets to gauge his ability correctly.
Serious Bettors Use POT, But Don’t Fall for Tricks
Imagine if there were two competing tipping services (instead of the 7,000,000 available online).
Tipster A’s headline is that you can earn a POT of 20% on his tips for an easy monthly payment of £50.
Tipster B offers a POT of 10%, and you pay £80 per month.
In both cases, you have a starting bank of £5,000, use a flat staking plan, and use 2% of your bank per bet, which equates to £100.
Your brain is screaming at you to pick Tipster A. After all, he gives you a better POT and is cheaper. Yet a closer look at the numbers could reveal something very different.
Tipster A is a very selective tipster, and there is nothing wrong with that! He offers 200 tips during the year, and you earn a profit of £4,000. You have bet a total of £20,000 (200 x 100), so the POT is 4,000/20,000 = 0.2 x 100 = 20%.
Tipster B is more active and offers 800 tips. You have wagered a total of £80,000 (800 x 100). As the POT is 10%, you earn a profit of £8,000, precisely double what you would get with tipster A. Once you have paid the respective fees, you still come out well on top with Tipster B.
Tipster A has a higher POT at 20%, but a lower return on initial investment at 80% against 160%.
Don’t Fall into the POT Trap
If you measure success via Profit on Turnover alone, there is a danger of you missing the bigger picture. It is the same situation with ROI. We are often guilty of focusing on the wrong data, sometimes to make us feel better about our decision making!
While POT is a good measure of efficiency, it doesn’t mean it will help boost your bank balance to a significant degree. What really matters is how much profit you can earn in pounds and pence. Would you prefer a POT of 20% and £4,000 profit or a POT of 10% and £8,000?
It is not as simple as just increasing your betting volume and placing more bets, it still needs to fit into a strategy, portfolio or tipster. Knowing that POT, or indeed ROI, isn’t everything, should enable you to improve how you bet.
There is no single metric taken in isolation that will prove the viability of a model, or tell you how much money you can make.
When considering POT, it is important to check the sample size of the data. The more ‘bets’ in the sample, the more confident that you can be about a particular model and be assured that it has an edge, rather than just luck.
Once you are satisfied with the sample size you can estimate the average bet volume per month or year. This then coupled with POT (or ROI), can give you a more realistic figure about how profitable an approach maybe and how much you can make over a given period, on average.
A POT of 18% is good, but may limit your earning potential if only provides 50 wagers a year! (Of course, in this example, you make look at increasing stakes if you can not increase bet volume)
Meanwhile, a POT of 6% can be very lucrative if you make 1,000 or 2,000 bets per annum!
What ever you approach, it is important to make a proper plan of attack, and analyse it regularly to see if it works for you and your own betting objectives.
The dream scenario may well be high volume with a high POT, but in the real world one model is unlikely to do that. It is more important to focus on balance in your betting portfolio with a mixture of low bet, high POT or ROI models, alongside a mixture of high volume models with lower POT or ROI expectations.
Put simply if you have a model(s) that delivers a decent POT (e.g. 5-10%) with a reasonably high volume of bets, allowing you to turn over your betting bank, will ensure you are on the path to profitable betting.
Focus On Betting Bank Growth…
Any metric, be it POT, ROI or something else, like Strike Rate are sign posts to how your betting is performing.
What matters ultimately though, to you and I, as punters, is actual real money profit in your bank. Which, in the end, comes down to how much you multiply your betting bank into profit.
It’s not about achieving the best possible POT% or ROI%.
Growth in your bank is driven by two key factors:
- 1. Your Bet Volume (the number of bets you make and the average size of each bet)
- 2. Your Edge (the percentage profit you make for each £1 invested)
To maximise your success as a punter you must focus on both of these things.
Whether that is through one strategy, or multiple in a portfolio (recommended), you need a good volume of bets with a solid and reliable profit margin.
It's only then, through a combination of these two things that you will be able to grow your bank at a decent rate and win a considerable amount in real pounds profit each year.
Our premier football betting service, Football Profits, had supremely strong February to continue our profitable season to date.
With an ROI of 30.11%, a Profit on Turnover % (POT%) of 19.04% and an average strike rate of 67-70%, it is easy to see why this service is so popular with members.
It can also be fully automated via our BF Bot Manager Integration – true hands-off profits!
If you'd like to trial Football Profits for yourself today, you can get up to six months free with this link
|Competition||Description||Selection||Matched amount||Avg. price matched||P/L||Placed date||Strategy||1000|
|Spanish La Liga||15:00 Getafe v Valencia\Match Odds\Getafe||Getafe||55.07||2.1||60.58||8/2/20 14:57||Football Profits – Fav||1060.58|
|Greek Super League||16:00 PAOK v OFI\Match Odds\PAOK||PAOK||58.1||1.17||9.88||9/2/20 15:57||Football Profits – Fav||1070.46|
|German Bundesliga||17:00 Bayern Munich v RB Leipzig\Match Odds\Bayern Munich||Bayern Munich||58.1||1.48||-58.1||9/2/20 16:57||Football Profits – Fav||1012.36|
|English Premier League||20:00 Wolves v Leicester\Match Odds\Wolves||Wolves||55.68||2.74||-55.68||14/2/20 19:57||Football Profits – Fav||956.68|
|Spanish La Liga||15:00 Barcelona v Getafe\Match Odds\Barcelona||Barcelona||52.9||1.42||22.22||15/2/20 14:57||Football Profits – Fav||978.9|
|Belgian First Division A||17:00 Club Brugge v Waasland-Beveren\Match Odds\Club Brugge||Club Brugge||52.9||1.16||8.47||15/2/20 16:57||Football Profits – Fav||987.37|
|Spanish La Liga||17:30 Villarreal v Levante\Match Odds\Villarreal||Villarreal||54.01||1.58||31.33||15/2/20 17:27||Football Profits – Fav||1018.7|
|Italian Serie A||14:00 Juventus v Brescia\Match Odds\Juventus||Juventus||56||1.18||10.08||16/2/20 13:57||Football Profits – Fav||1028.78|
|Greek Super League||15:15 Xanthi v Lamia\Match Odds\Xanthi||Xanthi||56||2.12||-56||16/2/20 15:12||Football Profits – Fav||972.78|
|Spanish La Liga||20:00 Real Madrid v Celta Vigo\Match Odds\Real Madrid||Real Madrid||53.7||1.27||-53.7||16/2/20 19:57||Football Profits – Fav||919.08|
|English Premier League||20:00 Chelsea v Man Utd\Match Odds\Chelsea||Chelsea||51.02||2.04||-51.02||17/2/20 19:57||Football Profits – Fav||868.06|
|English Premier League||12:30 Chelsea v Tottenham\Match Odds\Chelsea||Chelsea||48.47||1.91||44.11||22/2/20 12:27||Football Profits – Fav||912.17|
|German Bundesliga||14:30 Mgladbach v Hoffenheim\Match Odds\Mgladbach||Mgladbach||50.67||1.62||-50.67||22/2/20 14:27||Football Profits – Fav||861.5|
|English Premier League||15:00 Southampton v Aston Villa\Match Odds\Southampton||Southampton||50.67||1.81||41.04||22/2/20 14:57||Football Profits – Fav||902.54|
|Spanish La Liga||15:00 Barcelona v Eibar\Match Odds\Barcelona||Barcelona||50.67||1.19||9.63||22/2/20 14:57||Football Profits – Fav||912.17|
|English Premier League||15:00 Crystal Palace v Newcastle\Match Odds\Crystal Palace||Crystal Palace||50.67||2.28||64.86||22/2/20 14:57||Football Profits – Fav||977.03|
|Spanish La Liga||17:30 Sociedad v Valencia\Match Odds\Sociedad||Sociedad||53.92||1.69||37.2||22/2/20 17:27||Football Profits – Fav||1014.23|
|English Premier League||14:00 Man Utd v Watford\Match Odds\Man Utd||Man Utd||55.78||1.64||35.7||23/2/20 13:57||Football Profits – Fav||1049.93|
|English Premier League||14:00 Wolves v Norwich\Match Odds\Wolves||Wolves||55.78||1.55||30.68||23/2/20 13:57||Football Profits – Fav||1080.61|
|English Premier League||16:30 Arsenal v Everton\Match Odds\Arsenal||Arsenal||59.1||2.02||60.28||23/2/20 16:27||Football Profits – Fav||1140.89|
|Greek Super League||17:30 AEK Athens v OFI\Match Odds\AEK Athens||AEK Athens||59.1||1.49||28.96||23/2/20 17:27||Football Profits – Fav||1169.85|
|Spanish La Liga||17:30 Getafe v Sevilla\Match Odds\Getafe||Getafe||59.1||2.66||-59.1||23/2/20 17:27||Football Profits – Fav||1110.75|
|Belgian First Division A||19:00 Gent v Sint Truiden\Match Odds\Gent||Gent||62.11||1.34||21.12||23/2/20 18:57||Football Profits – Fav||1131.87|
|Spanish La Liga||20:00 Atletico Madrid v Villarreal\Match Odds\Atletico Madrid||Atletico Madrid||60.6||1.73||44.24||23/2/20 19:57||Football Profits – Fav||1176.11|
|Spanish La Liga||13:00 Athletic Bilbao v Villarreal\Match Odds\Athletic Bilbao||Athletic Bilbao||63.87||2.3||83.04||1/3/20 12:57||Football Profits – Fav||1259.15|
|German Bundesliga||14:30 RB Leipzig v Leverkusen\Match Odds\RB Leipzig||RB Leipzig||63.87||1.54||-63.87||1/3/20 14:27||Football Profits – Fav||1195.28|
|Spanish La Liga||20:00 Real Madrid v Barcelona\Match Odds\Real Madrid||Real Madrid||64.83||2.26||81.69||1/3/20 19:57||Football Profits – Fav||1276.97|
|Danish Superliga||18:00 Midtjylland v SonderjyskE\Match Odds\Midtjylland||Midtjylland||68.91||1.35||24.12||2/3/20 17:57||Football Profits – Fav||1301.09|
Jon is the Founder and Chief Tipster at Football Advisor and Predictoloy. He started life as data analyst in the digital marketing field before find his true calling in the world of Football and Horse Racing Betting.
Jon has been sharing his professional expertise since 2009 and specialises in using objective data analysis and subjective experience of betting built up over more than a decade of professional betting.
In 2014, Jon also launched (and continues to run) the trusted Football Advisor service service which provides a variety of football and horse racing betting models and portfolios. A few years later, Jon launched the Predictology platform which is the worlds first betting system builder and analyser covering a wealth of football betting related statistics covering more than 200,000 matches.
Jon has also lent his knowledge and expertise to several of the trusted Premium Services offered by the respected Secret Betting Club, including Football Lay Profits. Racing Bet Profits and, most recently, Racing Lay Profits.