Diary Of A Football Trader – Issue 7
Diary Of A Pro Football Trader – Issue 7
Welcome to the latest edition of “Diary Of A Pro Trader”, you can read all the past Issues here.
At his request, we have to keep is identity a secret, but here is what we can tell you about our new Pro Trader
ProTrader started his career and fascination with the financial markets as an Index Analyst at FTSE. He has since consulted for 15 years for some of the top Financial Institutions and Investment Banks in the world, where he specialized in financial instruments, pricing data, trading platforms and risk management solutions. He first started trading sports markets in early 2000, after the introduction and discovery of Betfair. He now trades the financial markets whilst working on entrepreneurial ventures with a focus on sports trading apps and e-commerce. He lives with his wife and young daughter between their homes of London, Sardinia, Odessa and Sochi. In his spare time, he is writing a book, enjoys outdoor pursuits with his family, learning Russian and of course, trading football markets.
Each week, ProTrader will be sharing his trading exploits and insights from his previous weeks trading and, if we're lucky, from time to time he'll also be giving a few pointers on upcoming trades that he'll be targeting.
This is something new for us but we are sure you are going to enjoy and benefit from ProTrader's insights.
So please do show your love and appreciation in the comments (plus any questions and suggestions), so that both Football Advisor and ProTrader know this is something you want to keep seeing in the future.
Without further ado, I'll hand over to Pro Trader.
Saturday, 19th September, 2020
There’s a host of matches being played today, across all the major European Leagues (as well as others). However, today I’ll just be focusing on the four matches in the English Premier League.
Summary of Market Trading
Leeds v Fulham
An interesting match to evaluate, mainly because they are both newly promoted teams. However, I was more confident of a Leeds win, having watched them both play the previous weekend, and know that Leeds can produce goals and Fulham are susceptible to conceding.
I took a conservative back position on Leeds at kick-off at 1.75 for £50. Five minutes in, Leeds score. Later in the first-half, Fulham equalize. The price on Leeds now jumps up to 2.06, so I increase my position for a further £20. In the second-half, Leeds score a second, a third and a fourth. At this point I close my positions for £64 profit.
At kick-off I took a lay position on unders for £50 at 1.9. After the early goal, this position was looking safe and so no further trades were needed to secure a £50 profit.
Just before kick-off I took a back position on ‘Yes’ at 1.98 for £50. Similar to the above trade, the early goal helped, and when Fulham equalized this position was closed automatically, resulting in a £48 profit.
Everton v West Bromwich Albion
I took an early back position on Everton to win at 1.61 for £50. West Bromwich then scored first, and Everton’s price rose to 2.68. I took another position at this price. Shortly afterwards, with West Bromwich looking more threatening, I decided to close these trades for a £20 loss rather than risk further losses.
Over/Under 2.5 / 3.5 / 4.5
I traded each of these markets at various times in the match, producing £53 profit.
Manchester United v Crystal Palace
At the beginning of this match, I tentatively backed Crystal Palace for £10 at 8. This was based on their win last week against Southampton, and because Crystal Palace always seem to raise their game and upset the big sides. In this previous fixture last season, Crystal Palace won 1-2. Shortly after Crystal Palace scored the first goal, I imagined Man U would quickly respond, and so closed this trade for just a £12 profit. However, should I had let it run it would have produced £80 profit.
Shortly after the early goal (7mins), I layed over 3.5 goals in the match. The reason being, this market is very susceptible to early goals and will fluctuate a great deal. I did not believe that there would be over 3.5 goals in this match, and so took a position for £50 at 1.9. Luckily, I did close this trade later in the game for a £44 profit, because the match ended 1-3 to Palace.
At kick-off I layed BTTS – ‘No’ at 1.8 for £50. With the early away goal, the market was sure that Manchester United would also score, and so I was able to close this trade early on for £38 profit.
Arsenal v West Ham United
I took an early lay position on Arsenal at 1.7 for £50. I had been trying to get matched before kick-off at around 1.5, but each time I didn’t get matched and the price then increased. I then layed Arsenal further at 1.24 for £20. Later on after West Ham equalized, I closed the trade for £37 profit.
I traded the correct score in this game, focusing around 1-1 and 2-1. It was probably more trouble than it was worth, but in the end produced £31 profit.
In the end, this match produced £68 profit.
One of my main targets when trading a match is to make at least £100 profit. With these four matches, £357 profit was made, which is slightly below my target. However, as the season progresses in this league, and watching more teams play more games, I expect the average profit per match to increase.
Sunday, 20th September, 2020
There’s another host of games taking place across the European leagues, however I will focus on three of the English Premier League games.
Summary of Market Trading
Southampton v Tottenham
I traded this market, starting with a lay on Tottenham at kick-off. I then continued to lay them at various intervals, as I commonly do. When Southampton scored first, I could have closed the trade for a profit. However, I believed Southampton would go on a win the match, so it was left open. In the end, Spurs won the match and a £60 loss was made on this market. This was disappointing.
Chelsea v Liverpool
I began the match with laying Liverpool at 2.16 for £50, and again at 2.18 for £50. Towards half-time and the score 0-0, their price had risen and I could have closed these trades for a profit. However, right before half-time, Christensen is given a red card and the price jumps. I hope that Chelsea will manage to ride the game out, expecting a 0-0 or 1-1. However, Liverpool score two goals in quick succession and the trade is now irretrievable without a Chelsea goal. In the end Liverpool won 2-0 and a £98 loss was made.
Before kick-off I took a lay position on ‘yes’ for £50 at 1.58. Later in the match with the score 0-0, I closed this position for £38 profit.
Leicester City v Burnley
I backed Leicester before kick-off at 1.81, towards the end of the match when Burnley were looking more dangerous and the score 3-1, I closed the trade for a £76 profit.
From my analysis, I was fairly confident of a both teams to score. Just before kick-off, I placed a lay position on ‘no’ at 1.94 for £150. It didn’t fully get matched, but the majority did. In the 20th minute when Leicester made it 1-1, this position closed for a £136 profit.
Under/Over 3.5 Goals
From my analysis and watching the opening moments of the game, I decided to lay under 3.5 goals (I am expecting over 3.5 goals). I took a position at 1.42, with some of it getting matched at 1.41. As the goals were scored, profit was already available but it was left alone and no further action was needed on this market, producing £150 profit.
The Chelsea v Liverpool game was disappointing, because I believe my positions would have proved profitable until the red card changed the game. Southampton also looked good and I was surprised they lost so heavily to Spurs. Even still, £242 profit was banked on the day.
Monday, 21st September, 2020
The two games I will be looking at today are again in the English Premier League:
- Aston Villa v Sheffield United
- Wolverhampton Wanderers v Manchester City
Summary of Market Trading
Aston Villa v Sheffield United
From my analysis, I was confident of a low-scoring match, possibly a draw (from past meetings) with the score 1-0, 1-1 or even 0-0. However, with the price of a re-invigorated Aston Villa trading at 2.5 this was a good position to take and so I backed them for £59.
When Sheffield United had a player sent off in the 12th minute, the price dropped considerably and the position was immediately showing over £30 profit, even with the score still 0-0.
Villa scored in the 63rd minute and this trade was then closed for a £74 profit.
Over/Under 2.5 Goals
I took a back position on unders just before kick-off at 1.73 for £50. Early in the second half with the 0-0, I closed this trade for £35 profit.
Whilst watching this market, I noticed a sudden and rapid spike in the price on over 2.5 goals to a price of 15, which just as quickly dropped back to more normal levels. The graph below shows this happening:
It was also a very liquid market, having over £500,000. How and why can this happen? Send your answers to [email protected] and the best, most succinct explanation wins one week of free trading / betting tips from Pro Trader.
I dabbled in the correct score market, taking positions in 1-0 and 3-0 just after kick-off. Due to the smaller positions involved, these were left open until the end, producing £43 profit.
Wolverhampton Wanderers v Manchester City
From my analysis undertaken, BTTS – ‘Yes’ appeared to be a good position to take. This was also backed-up by the Predictology match rating system on this market, recommended as offering good value.
At half-time and the score 0-2, I layed ‘No’ at 1.6 for £150. Early in to the start of the second-half, with Wolves looking increasingly threatening, I increased this position by £20 at 1.5, to take my overall liability on this market to £100. When Wolves scored in the 78th minute, this market was closed and banked £170 profit.
I took small positions in the scores that I felt were most likely, namely 0-3 and 1-3. I didn’t actually trade these out, but the match ended 1-3 and £46 profit was banked.
Both games were good to watch, and they also went as per my analysis and expectations in terms of the markets. Following these two games, £368 profit was banked on the day.
Tuesday, 22nd September, 2020
There’s a host of F.A. Cup games going on and 4 League Cup games taking place. However, the match that I am most interested in is:
- West Ham United v Hull City
Summary of Market Trading
West Ham United v Hull City
The match odds were too short on West Ham to consider at 1.3, and so I looked at the over/under 2.5 market. I was expecting a low-scoring match, and so layed overs at 1.41 for £100. However, I shortly changed my mind on this position, and closed it for a £19.5 loss.
I moved to the correct score market and backed 2-0, 3-0 and ‘any other home win’. At 3-0, Hull City annoyingly scored, so now it is dependent on West Ham to score to make this position profitable. Fortunately, they did so twice, late in the game, producing £70 profit on this market.
Although many games were being played, they weren’t of the tradeable variety, in terms of both quality, liquidity or analysis being of use. The match I looked at did produce profit, although it was just over £50.
Wednesday, 23rd September, 2020
There’s a more F.A. Cup games, 8 League Cup games and a few UEFA Champions & Europe League qualifiers taking place today. However, the matches that I am most interested are:
- Gent v Dynamo Kiev (Champions League qualification)
- Leicester v Arsenal (League Cup)
Summary of Market Trading
Gent v Dynamo Kiev
After carrying out analysis, I was confident that Kiev would come out quickly looking for an early away goal. At this stage, I was anticipating either a draw or away win. The match odds seemed too high on Kiev earlier on in the day, and so I took a back position on them for £100 at 2.92. Later on and 25 minutes before kick-off their price had risen to 3.15, and so I increased my position by £15. Kiev scored early in the 9th minute, and I considered closing the trade, but felt it had more to run. Gent equalized just before half-time, and so it was now showing as a small loss. However, shortly into the second-half, Gent had a player sent off for a second booking, and the price on Kiev fell favorably. Afterwards it only seemed like a matter of time before Kiev would capitalize on this numerical advantage. They then scored again in the 79th minute and the trades were closed for a £188 profit.
Leicester v Arsenal
Now as this is a League Cup game, in-between more important Premier League fixtures, both sides were fielding weakened sides. From my analysis, Arsenal have not had much joy at Leicester; not winning in their last three attempts. From this perspective and expecting a low scoring match, I layed Arsenal at 2.2 for £50. At half-time, it’s still 0-0 and I could have closed this trade for a profit. However, Leicester started the half strongly, creating chances and so the trade was left open. However, Arsenal then scored in the 57th minute, creating a negative balance on my position. I expected Leicester to equalize and so increased my lay position on Arsenal, but unfortunately they then conceded another on 90 minutes. There was nothing left to do with this, and the position was closed for a £69 loss.
Another night of cup games and qualifiers, and so it’s harder to take a strong and confident position with these types of games. The Gent red card was fortuitous for my position in the first match, but I was surprised Leicester didn’t equalize. I suppose the lesson learned is that Arsenal have more strength in depth, even when not playing their best players. Vardy missing from the Leicester side though, was telling about how important he is to the side. Overall though, £120 was banked on the day.
Thursday, 24th September, 2020
There’s more Europa League qualifying games taking place today, along with three English league cup games and the EUEFA Super League Cup. The matches I have identified as watching and possibly having a trading opportunity in are:
- Viktoria Plzen v Sonderjyske
- Bayern Munich v Sevilla
Summary of Market Trading
Viktoria Plzen v Sonderjyske
My analysis performed on the match pointed to the Croatian side being dominant (Viktoria Plzen) over their Danish opposition. Their price however was quite low at the start, at around 1.36, and so I watched to see how the match would progress. They were indeed looking the team more likely to score first, and so on 28 minutes in, I take a back position on them for £50 at 1.77. As their price drops with them looking more likely to score, I take a further position of £50 at 1.48. Plzen then score just 5 minutes later, and with a second goal 5 minutes after that. Plzen now look totally in control of their inevitable win, and so the position was left open to bank £88 profit.
Bayern Munich v Sevilla
I was keen to watch this match, less so trading on it. I was fairly confident on a Bayern win, but with an almost nothing game you really don’t know what to expect from either side. The price on Bayern at kick-off was 1.3, so I decided to take a wait and see approach before diving in. As it happens, this was a wise move to take, because in the 13th minute Sevilla were awarded and scored a penalty. Later on, and seeing two Bayern goals disallowed by the referee, it was questionable whether the referee had instructions from higher up. The graph below shows the price on Bayern at the start, after they conceded and after they equalized.
Graph to show Back price on Bayern Munich
In the latter stages, Bayern continued to press for a winner, but it ended 1-1 and so extra-time would now happen.
Match Odds (Extra-Time)
After witnessing Bayern finishing so strongly in the 90 minutes, I imagined they would continue this way and took a back position on them to win in extra-time for £100 at 2.06. After they scored in the 104th minute, I closed the trade for an £83 profit.
To Lift the Trophy
I imagined that this could go to penalties, and at that point I believed Bayern would prevail due to their great, experienced goal-keeper (Neuer). I placed a back position on Bayern at a relatively short price of 1.39 for £200. Later in extra-time after Bayern scored, this was closed swiftly for a £65 profit.
Although again today it was cup games, £236 profit was banked.
These types of games can be interesting though, because if you conduct the right analysis you can exploit large price discrepancies on the exchanges or with a book-maker and find value. With closed doors stadiums, this can result in higher prices being taken for the away team for instance, since there isn’t the same level of intimidation from the home fans. This is just a thought, but under the current restrictions I believe we will see more away wins than normal going forward.
Friday, 25th September, 2020
There’s a few games of interest taking place today in different leagues, namely:
- Hertha Berlin v Eintracht Frankfurt (German Bundesliga)
- Huddersfield v Nottingham Forest (English Championship)
- Lille v Nantes (French Ligue 1)
Now, the slightly trickier situation is that they are all playing at around the same time. My work-around was to have the French and German games showing on separate laptops, with the English Championship game as live commentary (since I expected this match would be a low scoring, low action affair).
Summary of Market Trading
Hertha Berlin v Eintracht Frankfurt
Analysis undertaken on this match pointed to the both teams to score market (BTTS) – ‘Yes’, and an away Frankfurt win. This is shown by the previous three encounters between these sides having BTTS.
Both teams also had BTTS – ‘Yes’ in their last two matches:
Checking the Predictology recommendations also showed a Frankfurt win was a high-value position to take:
The price at kick-off was not favourable (around 1.5). However, leaving this for around 20 minutes and the price has now reached 1.9 and I managed to take a back position at 1.86 for £50.
Hertha Berlin v Frankfurt – BTTS – Yes, 22 mins
Frankfurt scored in the 30th minute, and the price now drops, with my position now showing a £30 profit. Frankfurt were looking dominant and followed up with a second goal 6 minutes later. In the second half, Berlin were now taking more initiative and pushing forward. However, they were caught by a swift Frankfurt counter-attack and conceded again. However, I was still confident Berlin would score, and in the 77th minute they did, courtesy of a Frankfurt own-goal from the pressure they were applying. The trade closed and a £43 profit was banked.
After watching the first ten minutes, I took a back position on Frankfurt at 2.78 for £50. After Frankfurt scored their second goal, I closed the trade to bank £72 profit.
Huddersfield v Nottingham Forest
Analysis showed this could well be a low scoring match, and a draw quite likely. My original plan was to back under 2.5 goals, but the price was too low for my liking (around 1.4). I contemplated the under 1.5 goals market, but the season is still in its very early days and didn’t fancy taking this on, since after just one goal is scored you then have to wait until nearly the end to get back in profit sometimes.
Just after kick-off, I took a back position on the draw for £50 at 3.25, with the plan of then closing it at around half-time. However, at half-time and the score still 0-0, the price really hadn’t moved as much as I would have liked. With the risk of a goal coming from either side in the second-half and with time running down, I decided to close the trade and banked a small £12 profit.
Lille v Nantes
Analysis showed a Lille win was quite likely, and just after kick-off I take a back position on them for £100 at 1.69. Just before half-time, Lille scored (via an own goal) and I closed the trade for £34 profit.
From following these three matches (albeit simultaneously at times), £161 profit was banked. Again, a more cautious approach was taken, since it’s still early on in the respective football leagues.
Overall, this week produced £1,534 tax-free profit (minus 5% Betfair commission).
ProTrader started his career and fascination with the financial markets as an Index Analyst at FTSE. He has since consulted for 15 years for some of the top Financial Institutions and Investment Banks in the world, where he specialized in financial instruments, pricing data, trading platforms and risk management solutions. He first started trading sports markets in early 2000, after the introduction and discovery of Betfair. He now trades the financial markets whilst working on entrepreneurial ventures with a focus on sports trading apps and e-commerce. In his spare time, he is writing a series of books soon to be published, enjoys outdoor pursuits with his family, learning Russian and of course, trading football markets.