Diary Of A Football Trader – Issue 9
Diary Of A Pro Football Trader – Issue 9
Welcome to the latest edition of “Diary Of A Pro Trader”, you can read all the past Issues here.
At his request, we have to keep his identity a secret, but here is what we can tell you about our Pro Trader
ProTrader started his career and fascination with the financial markets as an Index Analyst at FTSE. He has since consulted for 15 years for some of the top Financial Institutions and Investment Banks in the world, where he specialized in financial instruments, pricing data, trading platforms and risk management solutions. He first started trading sports markets in early 2000, after the introduction and discovery of Betfair. He now trades the financial markets whilst working on entrepreneurial ventures with a focus on sports trading apps and e-commerce. He lives with his wife and young daughter between their homes of London, Sardinia, Odessa and Sochi. In his spare time, he is writing a book, enjoys travelling and outdoor pursuits with his family, learning Russian and of course, trading football markets.
Each week, ProTrader will be sharing his trading exploits and insights from his previous weeks trading and, if we're lucky, from time to time he'll also be giving a few pointers on upcoming trades that he'll be targeting.
This is something new for us but we are sure you are going to enjoy and benefit from ProTrader's insights.
So please do show your love and appreciation in the comments (plus any questions and suggestions), so that both Football Advisor and ProTrader know this is something you want to keep seeing in the future.
Without further ado, I'll hand over to Pro Trader.
Diary of a Football Trader
Saturday, 3rd October, 2020
As with most Saturday’s, there’s a host of matches in the major European leagues playing. The matches I’ve decided to look at are:
- Chelsea v Crystal Palace
- Everton v Brighton
- Newcastle v Burnley
Summary of Market Trading
Chelsea v Crystal Palace
The starting price for a Chelsea back at kick-off was too low to begin with. I waited until 23 minutes in, then took a back position for £100 at 1.58. 20 minutes later, with the score still 0-0, I increase my position at 1.74 for £25. After Chelsea scored, I was able to close this position for £42 profit.
Under / Over 2.5 Goals
I began the match with laying overs. Shortly in to the match with the score 0-0, I closed the trade for a small profit. I then took a lay position on unders, and as goals were scored, again closed this trade for another small profit. In the end, £15 profit was banked on this market.
Everton v Brighton
Everton have been showing great form in recent matches, and they were backed before kick-off for £100 at 1.83. With them scoring early and following up with a second, the position was left open to bank £83 profit at the end.
Over / Under 3.5 Goals
Analysis was pointing to a match with goals, and so before kick-off I layed unders for £100 at 1.45. With an early first goal, and two more being scored in the first-half, this position was left open and produced £100 profit when the match ended 4-2.
Confident of an Everton win and with them to get a goal in the first-half, I backed Everton/Everton in this market at 3.4 for £25. I later traded this out, producing just over £68 profit.
Newcastle v Burnley
Analysis and my expectations were favouring Newcastle to win this match. Before kick-off, I took a back position on them for £100 at 2.46. When Newcastle scored their second goal (in the second-half) to make it 2-1, I closed this position for £72 profit.
The above matches went as per my analysis and predictions and produced £380 profit. Covering three matches though is quite fatiguing, and tomorrow there’s a further 6 Premier League games taking place. Analysis and match selection is now required to select the games and the markets, which also requires preparation, analytical work and research.
Sunday, 4th October, 2020
There’s another host of top-tier European games taking place today. However, I have narrowed my selection down to the following:
- Leicester City v West Ham United
- Arsenal v Sheffield United
- Manchester United v Tottenham Hotspur
Summary of Market Trading
Leicester City v West Ham United
Having watched West Ham play last week and beat Wolves 4-0, the price of 4.6 looked a decent back position to take here. Predictology also were predicting value in a West Ham win.
Just after kick-off I take a back position on West Ham at 4.6 for £27. With West Ham taking an early lead, and then following up with a second in the first-half, this position was left to run and banked £97 profit.
After West Ham scored first, the market was expecting Leicester to still score and go on to win. At this point I layed ‘Yes’ for £50 at the low price of 1.25, and then traded out at different points to secure a £31 profit.
Arsenal v Sheffield United
I took a small speculative back position on Sheffield United at kick-off. This was showing a profit later on, which I should have closed. However, after Arsenal scored first this position was closed for a £25 loss.
My analysis pointed towards both teams scoring in this match. At kick-off I took a lay position on ‘No’ at 1.86 for £50. I then increased my position as the match progressed. Later in the match, these positions were closed automatically when Sheffield United also scored, banking £81 profit.
Manchester United v Tottenham
Before kick-off I take a tentative lay position on Manchester United at 2.08 for £50. As the goals begin to flow from Spurs, I closed this position for £46 profit.
Over / Under 5.5
With both teams scoring early, and with the score 1-4, I looked at this market and took a back position on overs. When Tottenham scored their next goal, this position was closed for £50 profit.
Correct Score Market
In the first 10 minutes with the score 1-2, I was now expecting a high scoring match. Spurs were also looking dangerous every time they went forward, whilst United looked leaky at the back. From this perspective I backed ‘Any other Away Win’ for £24 at 3.9. Still in the first-half and the score now 1-4, this position didn’t look in doubt and was left alone to profit £69.
An interesting day of Premier league games and some unexpected results. It does appear that matches are producing an extraordinarily high number of goals. Whether this is just a blip, or this pattern will continue remains to be seen. However, when matches are like this, it is always best to proceed with caution. However, from the matches followed £399 profit was banked on the day.
Monday, 5th October, 2020
There’s nothing of interest on today, so instead I’ve taken this free opportunity to start a Football Trading Guide, which will start here with part 1.
A Guide to Trading Football Matches
This guide is written for those starting out to understand what their expectations should be on entering this market-place, but also for more experienced traders, to help as a reminder as to the key principles and discipline that needs to be maintained, but can easily be neglected.
Remember, all of us had little idea when we first started trading. Perhaps we had some experience of betting on football outcomes, but not trading as a principle (entry and exit points). There's a huge amount for you to learn in order to trade properly, so remember to always take your time and progress as you feel comfortable.
Trading is a skill which once developed can provide you with an income for many years. Even if it takes a year before you reach regular profits. As long as you protect your bank while you learn, this is achievable.
What is Football Trading?
Trading is the buying or selling of a price linked to a stock, currency, commodity or event. Where you believe it will increase or decrease to make you a profit. Therefore, trading is predicting the movement of a price, either up or down. It is the exact same principle if you were predicting the price of gold would increase, you would want to buy it. If you thought the price of Oil will fall, you would want to sell it.
Football trading is the same principle, but based on various outcomes or markets on a match. A huge benefit over trading a football match, is the time-span. For example, if you were to take one of the examples above, you may have to wait days, weeks or months before taking a profit (or loss). With Football trading, you know the end-point is just 90 minutes of football away (similar to futures and options traded on International stock Exchanges – they have an end-date).
To start with, use small stakes and protect your bank. However, there will be value in every trade because you will either profit or you will learn. There are many ideas and formulas for devising staking plans, such as percentage of bank to the odds you are backing and such forth. I have used these in the past, but generally don’t anymore, since I find it more restrictive, takes more time and distracts from the live action when quick thinking is best applied. Personal preference is key here. My rule here though, is never stake more than 10% of your available bank, or what would stop you from having a good night’s sleep if you lost it.
Liquidity means that there is money available in a market. For example, the predominant European leagues attract almost all of the traders and their money (especially the English Premier league). The smaller leagues are active, but the prices can fluctuate wildly and closing positions can also be problematic, so they are best avoided at this stage. My general rule when looking at markets shortly before kick-off, is if it’s under 10k, stay away. If you scan the Betfair markets, you can see instantly how much has been placed on each.
Part 2 will cover: Analysis, Strategy, Entry/Exit (Trade Execution)
Tuesday, 6th October, 2020
Due to the International break, match availability is limited. However, this does not impact other leagues in the world where business resumes as normal. However, earlier in the day I was alerted (Predictology Daily Digest) to value in a Brazilian Serie B game taking place later that evening.
Further analysis showed that this did indeed offer good value. I was also able to stream the game live, so began to watch the first few minutes.
Chapecoense v Botafogo SP
I take a tentative back position on the home side for £51 at 2.94. Literally less than 3 minutes later Chapecoense score. I then close the position and bank a swift £65 profit.
Timing here was fortuitous admittedly, but I wouldn’t have even considered looking at this match without having such alerts and notifications. When there are many matches taking place, it really does help to have tools to cut through this (possibly showing matches that you wouldn’t consider) and highlight value, to help with your positions to take that could be profitable.
Wednesday, 7th October, 2020
There’s more International friendlies taking place, and ordinarily I wouldn’t take notice of them, but one that I’m interested in is:
- Portugal v Spain
The reason being, these countries footballing teams are big rivals, with experienced & skilled squads, and I expect it will be taken more seriously by these sides.
Portugal v Spain
Analysis points to a Portugal win or draw, but after having checked the starting line-ups, Ronaldo is playing (it wasn’t confirmed until late) and I now expect a narrow Portugal win in this match. I’m surprised that Portugal at home with a strong line-up can be backed at 2.96, and so I take a cautious back position for £15 at 2.96. As the match progresses, I increase this position by £25 at 3.5. However, although there were chances and Portugal were close late on, it ended 0-0 resulting in a £41 loss.
I was expecting Portugal to edge this, and they very nearly did towards the end. However, this is the reason why non-competitive games should be handled with caution and with reduced staking.
Thursday, 8th October, 2020
There’s more International games taking place today, including friendlies and Euro qualifiers. The matches I’ve decided to follow are:
- Georgia v Belarus (Euro qualifier)
- England v Wales (International friendly)
Georgia v Belarus
Under / Over 2.5 Goals
My analysis was heavily in favour of a low-scoring match. I decided to watch the first 10 minutes to see how the teams came out, but in the 7th minute, Georgia scored (penalty). I’m still expecting a low-scoring match, and so take the opportunity to lay overs at 1.73 for £100. As the match continued 1-0, I close the position for a £72 profit.
Under / Over 1.5 Goals
As above, I also took a small position laying overs for £50 at 1.16 (£8 liability). Again, as the second-half continued 1-0, I then close the position for £21 profit.
England v Wales
I took a back position on England before kick-off for £100 at 1.51. These odds were low, but I still felt they offered value. I didn’t need to trade this market further, since England ran out 3-0 winners, banking £51 profit.
Under / Over 2.5
After looking at the starting line-up, with many quality players being featured and starting (some for the first time), I was expecting they would want to make their mark on the game for squad selection in matches to come. Therefore, I took a lay position on unders at 1.72 for £50. I then increased this position as the price continued to fall. When the third goal was scored, this market closed producing £145 profit.
Both matches went as per my analysis and expectations. For the above two games, £289 profit was banked which I was happy with considering they were Internationals.
Overall, this week banked £1,092 profit (minus 5% Betfair commission). Considering that this was also an International break week, I was satisfied with the end result.
Next week I will give you the next part of the trading guide I have been writing, and also a progress update on the ‘forgotten robots’ that work and trade as we sleep.
Friday, 9th October, 2020
Due to it being Internationals week, there’s 7 UEFA Nations league matches taking place tomorrow.
The standout game for me from both a watching perspective and potentially trading is Ukraine v Germany. Again, this is an International, so any advice or recommendations taken from here should used conservatively.
Checking the liquidity on the market, this already has nearly 65k, which is a positive sign.
Looking at head-to-head results, the last match between these two sides was in 2016, so can be dismissed.
I then look at recent home form for Ukraine and away form for Germany:
Points to note from these competition stats:
- Ukraine have scored in their last 3 home games
- Germany have scored in their last 4 away games
Further Recent Analysis:
- Germany conceded 3 goals this week against Turkey
- Ukraine conceded 7 against an in-form France, although still managed to score
- The Ukrainians have also been severely impacted by several COVID-led withdrawals from their squad, after half a dozen players were ruled out
Trading Predictions to contemplate:
I will be looking at the following markets:
- BTTS – Laying ‘No’ at around 1.7 (I expect both teams to score)
- Over / Under 3.5 – Laying Unders at around 1.6 (I expect over 3.5 goals)
Points to note – if I take these positions and a goal hasn’t been scored by HT, I will then trade them out.
ProTrader started his career and fascination with the financial markets as an Index Analyst at FTSE. He has since consulted for 15 years for some of the top Financial Institutions and Investment Banks in the world, where he specialized in financial instruments, pricing data, trading platforms and risk management solutions. He first started trading sports markets in early 2000, after the introduction and discovery of Betfair. He now trades the financial markets whilst working on entrepreneurial ventures with a focus on sports trading apps and e-commerce. In his spare time, he is writing a series of books soon to be published, enjoys outdoor pursuits with his family, learning Russian and of course, trading football markets.
How do you choose which matches to trade and what criteria pricewise