Can You Profit From Short Odds Betting?
Can you still win long term at short odds?
The conventional cliche in sports betting is that you should avoid odds on selections. After all, if you’re going to risk a pound, you should be able to make a pound in return.
As much as this theory sounds good on the surface, there’s no reason that you can’t make a profit from shorter odds selections.
Another common cliche in betting circles is that if you’re right more than half the time, then you’ll be in profit. When it comes to odds on selections, that’s definitely not the case.
The key to being successful at shorter odds is to have an understanding of probabilities and make a judgement based on your own research. If you think the probability of an event happening is higher than the odds suggest then its still worth considering.
Example- The case of Floyd Mayweather and Connor Mcgregor
A perfect example of this would be the heavily marketed fight between Floyd Mayweather, one of the greatest boxers in his class of all time and Conor Mcgregor, a world champion Mixed Martial Artist.
The fight itself was a boxing match and even though Mayweather’s odds were around 1.33 at the start of the fight, plenty of smart bettors piled in.
Think of it this way, the odds of 1.33 suggested a 75% probability of Mayweather winning the fight. In fact, those knowledgeable about boxing believed his chances were much higher than this and the odds should have been even shorter. For one of the greatest fighters ever to be pitted against someone (although extremely talented in his own discipline) who had never fought at this level before made this price extremely attractive to people willing to skew their risk to reward ratio.
The favourite-longshot bias
Although many favourites do shorten in price due to ‘hype’, gamblers still have a tendency to overvalue longshots and undervalue favourites. This can lead to occasions where value can still be found on selections at a short price.
Using tools such as oddschecker, you’ll soon be able to spot prices that are significantly higher than elsewhere. Although it doesn’t sound like much, betting on a market with an odds boost at 1.6 when the rest of the market is offering 1.5 can be a significant advantage. If you’re able to find edges of even just a few percent on a consistent basis, you should be turn over a regular profit. You can even use tools such as tradematesports to find these bets for you.
If you’ve found bets at a value price, you can maximise your edge on these by using kelly staking. Kelly staking is a method of staking that varies your stake according to your perceived edge and your available betting bank. If you know what your edge is on the rest of the market and the odds you are betting at, you can adjust the size of your stake accordingly. There are simple calculators online that can do this for you
Loss Recovery systems
One of the reasons why some bettors are reluctant to bet at short odds are the number of bets required to recover any losses. One method could be to use a loss recovery system where you would raise your stakes after a short odds loss or stake plus your winnings on your next bet. The probability of a long winning streak is higher with short odds selections and this could be a fast way to build your bankroll. Be warned though, that you should have a sufficient bankroll to employ this strategy and long term it may not be profitable.
You might consider putting your short odds selections into a double or larger accumulator to get your total odds closer to or above evens. If you feel confident of a result in a few games, then it makes sense to claim those bigger odds. However, bear in mind that in many cases, accumulators are poor value in the long term as bookmakers will add their own margin into your bets. Shop around for the best accumulator prices using oddschecker.
Using short odds for your research
Of course you don’t actually have to bet on something at short odds but if you think the odds are far too short, then there is value in opposing it. A common strategy in tennis exchange trading is to lay a dominant favourite at the beginning of a game at short odds in the hope that their opponent will claim an early break. You can then trade out of your position for a profit before the favourite makes a comeback. One of football advisor’s core strategies of laying the draw also works on extracting maximum value by opposing a late draw in a football match for big profits. Of course, your strike rate for laying at short odds will be lower, but the potential payouts can be significant if you are consistently making value selections.
Enjoying this topic? Why not check out:
> How To Scalp The Betfair Markets
> What Causes Betting Odds To Move?
> Reading Betfair Graphs Like A Pro Trader
What is Trademate Sports?
Put simply, Trademate is value betting tool that signals +EV bets
Trademate Sports monitors odds movements 24/7 and identifies value on over 25,000 games every year.
They cover hundreds of leagues from more than 50 countries across multiple sports. Including all of the major leagues in Football such as the Champions League, Europa League, Premier League, La Liga, Serie A and Bundesliga. In Basketball we cover the NBA and NCAA. In American Football we cover the NFL. In Baseball we cover the MLB. In Tennis we cover the Grand Slams. In Ice Hockey we cover the NHL.
They support over 90 soft bookmakers such as Unibet, William Hill etc, and the sharp bookmakers Pinnacle, SBO, Dafabet/IBC, Mansion88, Matchbook, Betfair, BetDaq, and Smarkets.
We cover the following odds types: 1×2 (Home, Draw, Away), Asian Handicap, European Handicap, Draw No Bet, Moneyline, Spread and Over / Unders.
The founder, Jonas Gjelstad, took a $10,000 starting bank to over $1,00,000 in 12 months using their published methods.
Quite an incredible claim and it is all detailed in a very interesting YouTube documentary.
As Trademate are fond of saying – do you want to stop betting, and start sports investing? Learn more about Trademate here
Jon is the Founder and Chief Tipster at Football Advisor and Predictoloy. He started life as data analyst in the digital marketing field before find his true calling in the world of Football and Horse Racing Betting.
Jon has been sharing his professional expertise since 2009 and specialises in using objective data analysis and subjective experience of betting built up over more than a decade of professional betting.
In 2014, Jon also launched (and continues to run) the trusted Football Advisor service service which provides a variety of football and horse racing betting models and portfolios. A few years later, Jon launched the Predictology platform which is the worlds first betting system builder and analyser covering a wealth of football betting related statistics covering more than 200,000 matches.
Jon has also lent his knowledge and expertise to several of the trusted Premium Services offered by the respected Secret Betting Club, including Football Lay Profits. Racing Bet Profits and, most recently, Racing Lay Profits.