Diary Of A Football Trader – Issue 12
Diary of a Football Trader
Welcome to the latest edition of “Diary Of A Pro Trader”, you can read all the past Issues here.
At his request, we have to keep is identity a secret, but here is what we can tell you about our new Pro Trader
ProTrader started his career and fascination with the financial markets as an Index Analyst at FTSE. He has since consulted for 15 years for some of the top Financial Institutions and Investment Banks in the world, where he specialized in financial instruments, pricing data, trading platforms and risk management solutions. He first started trading sports markets in early 2000, after the introduction and discovery of Betfair. He now trades the financial markets whilst working on entrepreneurial ventures with a focus on sports trading apps and e-commerce. He lives with his wife and young daughter between their homes of London, Sardinia, Odessa and Sochi. In his spare time, he is writing a book, enjoys outdoor pursuits with his family, learning Russian and of course, trading football markets.
Each week, ProTrader will be sharing his trading exploits and insights from his previous weeks trading and, if we're lucky, from time to time he'll also be giving a few pointers on upcoming trades that he'll be targeting.
This is something new for us but we are sure you are going to enjoy and benefit from ProTrader's insights.
So please do show your love and appreciation in the comments (plus any questions and suggestions), so that both Football Advisor and ProTrader know this is something you want to keep seeing in the future.
Diary of a Football Trader
Saturday, 17th October, 2020
It’s the return of all of the major European Leagues following the unnecessary International break. The English Premier League games that I will be looking at today are:
- Everton v Liverpool
- Chelsea v Southampton
- Manchester City v Arsenal
Summary of Market Trading
Everton v Liverpool
My analysis pointed towards Liverpool not to win, so before kick-off, I took a lay position on Liverpool for 1.89 for £50. Liverpool scored early on, but I then take the opportunity to increase this position at 1.36 for a further £50. Further trades were made as the market progressed, and with the match ending in a draw, this market produced £61 profit.
Correct Score Market
Believing that a draw was likely here, I took positions in the 1-1 and 2-2 market. These were traded out as the match progressed, and in the end produced a £32 profit.
Overall, this match ending in a draw produced £93 profit.
Chelsea v Southampton
Similar to the previous match, certain analysis and my predictions pointed to value in laying Chelsea. Just after kick-off I took this position for £50 at 1.59. Chelsea scored early on, and I took the opportunity again to increase this position for £20 at 1.25. When Chelsea scored a second, I increased this position again for £50 at 1.05 (£2.50 liability). My strategy here, is that Southampton looked likely to score, and if they were to do so then the price on Chelsea would move upwards and then could traded out for a profit. As the second-half progressed, Southampton were dominant and this position was closed when Southampton equalized late on to produce £106 profit.
In fairness, this was left quite late, but I believed Southampton could have gone on to win this match, instead of it ending 3-3, and so felt confident leaving it so late.
Following my analysis, this market held appeal expecting both teams to score. 36 minutes in, with the score already 2-0, I took a back position on ‘Yes’ at 2.06 for £50. When Southampton scored a few minutes later, this market was closed for a £50 profit.
Overall, this match banked £156 profit.
Manchester City v Arsenal
Over / Under 2.5
This match was difficult to predict in terms of an outright winner, and so I was interested in the under 2.5 goals market. I could see that many others were predicting a high-scoring match, but from the outset the tempo seemed slow and I looked to capitalize against market sentiment. I took a lay position on overs at 1.52 for £50. As the match dwindled on, I closed this out for £39 profit.
Over / Under 3.5
Using the exact same strategy as above, I placed a back position on unders for £50 at 1.75 after the first (and only) goal was scored. This was later closed to bank £35 profit.
The match ended 1-0, but with the few amount of goals scored, it produced £74 profit overall.
Sunday, 18th October, 2020
There’s more English Premier League games on today, and the matches I’ll be looking at are:
- Sheffield United v Fulham
- Tottenham v West Ham United
Sheffield United v Fulham
This was a difficult match to call outright, with analysis indicating a low-scoring draw or a Sheffield United win.
I opened a small position in this market later in the second-half (score 0-0), laying ‘No’ at 1.2 for £25. This was left open, and fairly late on after both teams scored this closed for a £25 profit.
Expecting a low-scoring draw, I looked at this market and took a speculative back position on 1-1 at 7 for £10. When two sides appear evenly matched, backing this market can be quite tradeable, because no matter who scores first, the price will drop and the trade can be closed for a profit (depending on the match time, of course). This is what occurred here, banking £48 profit. In this instance, it did help that the match ended 1-1.
Overall, this match although not heavily traded still produced £73 profit.
Tottenham v West Ham
Before kick-off, I opened a lay position on Tottenham for £50 at 1.68. Less than 1 minute in to the match, Tottenham scored, putting my position in to negative territory. I decided this would be an opportunity to increase this position, and so lay again at 1.28 for £25. A few minutes later, Tottenham score again, and I decide whether to close the trade for a loss, or continue with this strategy. Because it’s still very early in to the match, I chose the latter. Unbelievably, Tottenham score a third goal on the 16th minute.
I decide that with so much match time left, and with West Ham still looking competitive, to increase this position further at 1.11 and 1.02 (both for £50 – for a liability of £6.50). The point being here, that even if West Ham were to score just one goal, the price would move and I could probably now close the position for a small profit, or scratch. As it happened, West Ham were dominant and the more attacking side in the second-half, scoring 3 goals, resulting a 3-3 finish. I closed these positions just after the final goal was scored for a £158 profit.
Later in the second-half, as West Ham were looking dominant and likely to score, I took a lay position on ‘No’ at 1.35 for £100. When West Ham scored their first goal, this market was closed for a £100 profit.
Goals Over / Under 4.5
With the score 3-0, and it appearing there were more to come (I expected from Tottenham), I took a back position in this market for £100 at 1.97. I was actually thinking about to close this position for a loss, but fortunately after the first West Ham goal was scored it was left open to bank £97 profit when West Ham scored their second (via an own goal).
Correct Score Market
I was taking positions in this market at various times to hedge against my other positions. For instance, in the second-half at 3-0, it appeared Tottenham were mostly happy to sit-back and it did for a time look as if the match would finish this way. You will notice that my largest position in this market was to back 3-0 at 4.5 for £50. With further trading at key moments, this market banked £87 profit.
This was another of one of those crazy games that we have witnessed in the Premier League lately. For a team 3-0 down in the 80th minute to come back and get a draw, especially against a side such as Tottenham is highly improbable. However, it presented many trading opportunities, especially with taking the low-risk lay approach. In the end, the markets traded in this match produced £442 profit. It was even more satisfying being a West Ham fan, but I don’t think that influenced my judgement (consciously at least!).
Monday, 19th October, 2020
Another night of Premier League action, with two matches being played. However, the match I’ve decided to look at is:
- West Brom v Burnley
West Bromwich Albion v Burnley
Over / Under 2.5 Goals
A tricky tie to call, and a match that I will approach with caution. However, this market looked to offer the best opportunity because my analysis pointed to a tight, low-scoring match. Before kick-off, I take a back position on unders at 1.9 for £50. As expected, it was a tight, cagey affair with the match ending 0-0 and £45 profit banked.
Tuesday, 20th October, 2020
Tonight there’s a host of European Champions League matches to consider. However, the match I’m most interested in is:
- Chelsea v Sevilla
Chelsea v Sevilla
Both Teams To Score (BTTS)
From my analysis I was expecting a close, low-scoring match. Sevilla are sold defensively and their last 3 La Liga games have produced under 2.5 goals and BTTS ‘Yes’ has occurred just once (against Barcelona). I imagined that Chelsea may struggle to break them down, and that Sevilla would be happy with a draw. From this perspective, I took a position laying BTTS – ‘Yes’ at 1.92 for £50. With the match ending 0-0, this market captured £50 profit.
Correct Score Market
As per the above rationale, I was interested in this market for value, backing 0-0, 1-1 and 1-0 either way. At full-time, with the score 0-0, £95 profit was banked from this market.
Over / Under 2.5
Again, I was expecting a low-scoring match and so before kick-off took a lay position on overs at 1.77 for £100, which I then increased for just under £25 at 1.8. Just as the second-half was underway, I closed these positions for £86 profit.
After watching the first 10 minutes of the match, my suspicions were confirmed that Sevilla were going to make this difficult for Chelsea. I took a lay position on Chelsea at 1.86 for £50. Towards the latter stage of the second-half, I closed this position for £37 profit.
Overall, this match produced £268 profit.
Wednesday, 21st October, 2020
Tonight we have further European Champions League matches taking place. The stand-out game for me is Real Madrid v Shakhtar Donetsk. Not least because my own thoughts and analysis and Predictology pointed towards an upset here, and with the starting price on Real Madrid very low (around 1.2), big opportunities were evident.
Real Madrid v Shakhtar Donetsk
Before kick-off I took several positions laying Madrid at 1.21 for £238 (£50 liability). Just after kick-off, their price was 1.2, and so I increased this position by a further £20. Shakhtar scored in the 29th minute, and followed up with a second just four minutes later. I then took the decision to immediately close these positions and banked £90 profit. However, should this position had to been left to run, a further £167 profit could have been made.
Ajax v Liverpool
Just before kick-off, I took a lay position on ‘Yes’ at 1.45 for £50. With the match nearing the end, I close the position for £45 profit.
Over / Under 1.5
Going against market expectations, I’m expecting a low-scoring game. I take a lay position on overs at 1.25 for £50. This position was left to run until the end, and with score being 0-1, £50 profit was banked.
Over / Under 2.5
As with the above rationale, I took a starting position laying overs at 1.37 for £100. This market was then traded several times more and banked £46 profit.
Overall, by taking a differing view to the market perceptions, £141 profit was banked from this match.
Thursday, 22nd October, 2020
Tonight it’s the return of the Europa League group qualifier matches.
The match that I’ve decided to look at is Celtic v AC Milan.
Celtic v AC Milan
My analysis for this game points strongly to an away win, with the potential of a high-scoring game.
The odds for a Milan win seem to offer very good value, and so at kick-off I take a back position on Milan at 1.96 for £100. Ten minutes in to the second-half, with the score 0-2, I close the position to bank £83 profit.
Over / Under 2.5
At kick-off I take a lay position on unders at 1.8 for £50. As when I closed the match-odds position, I also closed this to bank £26 profit.
The match ended 1-3, and trading these two markets produced £109 profit.
Friday, 23rd October, 2020
Tonight it’s the return of a Friday night Premier League match to kick-off the weekend’s action, starting with Aston Villa v Leeds United.
Aston Villa v Leeds United
Over / Under 2.5
I was expecting a low-scoring game, which again went against general market sentiment. Predictology also high-lighted a Leeds win and BTTS – ‘No', a market that I was also interested in.
At kick-off I took a position in the market laying overs at 1.54 for £100. At half-time, with the score 0-0, I closed the position for a £51 profit.
Over / Under 1.5
As with the above, I also took a position here laying unders at 1.19 for £100. At the start of the second-half I closed this position for £33 profit.
Following analysis, shortly after kick-off I took a lay position on ‘Yes’ for £25 at 1.53. As the match progressed, I traded some of the position out, so that in case Villa did manage to score, the loss would be minimal. In the end, the match ended 0-3 and £22 profit was banked from this market.
Overall, this match produced £106 profit.
An interesting and busy week, with a decent mix of domestic, Champions and Europa League matches. In total, 11 matches were traded to varying degrees of profitability. The stand-out successes however would have to be when laying at short prices in the markets, such as Tottenham at 1.02, Real Madrid at 1.21, Chelsea at 1.05 (against Southampton) and even laying over 2.5 goals for 1.37 in the Ajax v Liverpool game.
Going against market sentiment can bring rewards, and the risk / return ratio is beneficial. However, in order to take positions such as these, thorough analysis and match research is needed, as well as a disciplined game-plan for when markets turn against you.
In total, this week produced £1,597 tax-free profit from the matches traded (minus 5% Betfair commission).
Looking ahead to next week, it’s again very busy on the football front, with league games over the weekend and Monday, Champions League again on Tuesday and Wednesday, Europa League on Thursday, and then another Friday night with a Premier League match between Wolves and Crystal Palace.
Also, as an additional note, I am in progress with the Trading Guide that started with part one. Part two is nearly complete, but due to the busy schedule this week it is not yet ready to publish.
ProTrader started his career and fascination with the financial markets as an Index Analyst at FTSE. He has since consulted for 15 years for some of the top Financial Institutions and Investment Banks in the world, where he specialized in financial instruments, pricing data, trading platforms and risk management solutions. He first started trading sports markets in early 2000, after the introduction and discovery of Betfair. He now trades the financial markets whilst working on entrepreneurial ventures with a focus on sports trading apps and e-commerce. In his spare time, he is writing a series of books soon to be published, enjoys outdoor pursuits with his family, learning Russian and of course, trading football markets.