Diary Of A Football Trader – Issue 15

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ProTrader started his career and fascination with the financial markets as an Index Analyst at FTSE. He has since consulted for 15 years for some of the top Financial Institutions and Investment Banks in the world, where he specialised in financial instruments, pricing data, trading platforms and risk management solutions. He first started trading sports markets in early 2000, after the introduction and discovery of Betfair. He now trades the financial markets whilst working on entrepreneurial ventures with a focus on sports trading apps and e-commerce. He lives with his wife and young daughter between their homes of London, Sardinia, Odessa and Sochi. In his spare time, he is writing a book, enjoys outdoor pursuits with his family, learning Russian and of course, trading football markets.


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Diary of a Football Trader

Saturday, 7th November, 2020

This is the last weekend of matches across the major European leagues and cups before a 12 day International break. The following games are targeted for trading opportunities:

  • Crystal Palace v Leeds United
  • Chelsea v Sheffield United
  • West Ham United v Fulham

Summary of Market Trading

Crystal Palace v Leeds United

Match Odds

I took a conservative back position on Crystal Palace just after kick-off for £30 at 2.7.  When Leeds scored to make it 2-1, I came out of the trade slightly fearing a draw was on the cards. Later in the second-half with the home team scoring a third, I closed the position for £9 profit.



Over / Under 4.5

In to the second-half with the score 3-1, I took a position on overs for £50 at 1.5. With the match ending 4-1, this banked £24 profit.


Chelsea v Sheffield United

Match Odds

Watching the first 10 minutes of the match and expecting a Chelsea win, Sheffield United score first in the 9th minute. Expecting a Chelsea come-back, I took advantage of the improved price, opening a back position for £75 at 2.09.  With Chelsea soon equalizing, and going on to score further goals, I closed the position for £78 profit.


West Ham United v Fulham


Before kick-off I took a lay position on ‘Yes’ £25 at 1.85. With the match ending 1-0, £24 profit was banked.



Match Odds

Expecting a West Ham win, before kick-off I took a back position at average odds of 1.89 for £113.  With West Ham eventually running out 1-0 winners somewhat fortuitously (thank you Mr Lookman!), this position produced £96 profit.


Correct Score

This market was traded covering various outcomes, including the eventual result of 1-0. In the end, this market produced £22 profit.



Overall, the matches and markets traded today produced £253 profit.


Sunday, 8th November, 2020

The final day of top European League action before the somewhat disruptive and unnecessary International break. The matches that I will be looking at today are:

  • West Bromwich Albion v Tottenham Hotspur
  • Arsenal v Aston Villa


West Brom v Tottenham

Match Odds

Half-way through the second-half and with the score 0-0 and expecting a goal, I took a lay position on the draw for £50 at 2.16. After Tottenham scored a late 88th minute goal, I still closed this position for a £42 profit just in case West Brom got an equalizer.




In the second-half with the score 0-0, I took a speculative lay position on ‘No’ at 1.26 for £40. The rationale here, that if a goal came soon, this position could then be closed for a profit. However, with the only goal coming so late, this went on to produce a £10 loss.



Arsenal v Aston Villa

Match Odds

From my analysis, and looking at the Arsenal line-up, before kick-off I took a lay position on Arsenal at 1.67 for £50. After a couple of more trades at different points, this was closed for £49 profit.



Overall, the matches and markets traded today produced £81 profit.

Monday,9th November, 2020

Even when there’s not so much going on, I still scan the markets to see what is taking place and where the liquidity lies. From that I can then quickly carry out analysis and make an assumption on an individual match, depending on the time it has reached. The following match gives an example of this.


Oxford City v Northampton (FA CUP)

Over/Under 3.5


With the score 2-1, I took  a back position on unders at 1.8 for £25. With the match ending 2-1, this position banked £19.5 profit.


Wednesday, 11th November, 2020

Tonight it’s the beginning of the International friendlies. When approaching these kind of matches, it is always best to be more conservative.


Belgium v Switzerland


Analysis showed value in backing both teams to score, and so just after kick-off I took a back position on ‘Yes’ at 1.94 for £50.  With Switzerland scoring early, and Belgium also scoring, this market was closed and banked £45 profit.



Match Odds

When Belgium were behind, I took a back position on them at 4.6 for £15. I later traded this out to bank £40 profit.


Denmark v Sweden

Over / Under 2.5

With it looking like a ow-scoring game, I took a back position on unders at 1.7 for £55. Later into the match I closed this position for £30 profit.



Overall, the matches and markets traded today produced £115 profit.


Thursday, 12th November, 2020

England v Republic of Ireland

An England win looked inevitable, but with their price around 1.4 and Ireland previously being quite defensive I decided to pursue other markets.

Over / Under 2.5

I took a back position on unders at 1.88 for £50. With England scoring two goals in the first half, this position was now looking precarious. I decided to leave it open, but England were then given a penalty that was scored, and so this position produced a £50 loss.




With analysis indicating that Ireland would not score in this match, I took a back position on ‘No’ at 1.61 for £40. With the match ending with no goals from Ireland, this market produced £16 profit.



Correct Score

I took back positions on 2-0 and 3-0. With the match ending 3-0 £36 profit was banked.


Serbia v Scotland

Match Odds

After seeing that Scotland took the lead, I expected Serbia would at least equalize, and so took a lay position on Scotland at 1.4 for £50. When Serbia equalized, I closed the position for £43 profit.



Overall, the matches and markets traded today produced £45 profit.


Friday, 13th November, 2020

Bolton Wanderers v Salford City

An England


Analysis pointed to both teams scoring in this match, and so I took a back position on ‘Yes’ at 1.9 for £50. Bolton against the odds scored early in the first half, and profit could have been taken at this point. However, it was expected that Salford with their form at present would score and so the position was left open. However, this didn’t materialize for Salford, and with the match ending 2-0, a £50 loss was taken.



Match Odds

Before kick-off, I took a speculative back position on Bolton at 3.7 for £38. After Bolton scored first, I layed this position, and then later closed this position to bank £43 profit. In hindsight, if this was left as it was it would have made £110 profit.




Overall, this week made £506 profit (Betfair commission at 5% included). This drop from previous weeks is to be expected, since there have been less matches available due to the International break, and with the type of matches bringing a more conservative approach.

Predicting and trading football matches is difficult. It’s even more difficult when looking at International Friendlies or from leagues that you are less familiar with.

However, putting this aside, there are two matches today that I am very confident on predicting positive trading opportunities for at decent prices.

The matches are:

  • Portugal v France
  • Switzerland v Spain

The trading advice for both of these matches will be posted on my Trade of The Day page a few hours before kick-off, once team line-ups have been reviewed (approximately 5pm GMT).


A Personal Invitation from Pro Trader


I first started out trading financial markets nearly 20 years ago – mainly equities on the FTSE 100 and AIM (alternative investment market) and commodities, particularly gold and oil. Today I normally trade FX (foreign exchange – currencies).

Later I also started trading crypto-currencies, such as Bitcoin and Ethereum, which I still do today when I believe there is a profitable trade on.

The difference I have found with football markets is that you can actually see and know why prices are moving the way they are. This is not possible on the above markets I mentioned, since there is so much inside information, that even all the analysis in the world won’t uncover. With a football match, it is much more straight-forward, i.e. a team scores, their price goes down. It’s obviously not quite as simple as that, but it is definitely easier than guessing on the World price of gold, or why a crypto currency may go up one week and down the next.

I truly believe there is no better time to get involved in trading Football markets. The epidemic of Corona-virus is making the world almost house-bound for the foreseeable future. Maybe you have had your own working practices affected by this, especially if working in hospitality or sectors that have had to close their business. When will it all resume as normal? Unfortunately, no-one knows the answer to this.

However, even under closed doors stadiums, football matches will continue. Maybe you too can make a comfortable profit from just one football match a day. It’s certainly a good start to having an additional income stream, with no start-up costs or normal business regularities and uncertainties. There’s also no tax required to pay on profits.

Not every recommended trade will go to plan; that would be unrealistic. But when trades are seemingly going to go against a recommendation I will provide details on how to minimize risk by using strategic exit points, and sometimes other markets to hedge trades and still come out with a profit. This is my number one rule: Always look to protect capital and profits.

To follow these trades, you will need to have access to one of the exchanges. The primary exchange I use is Betfair, so prices quoted on other exchanges may vary.

I hope you are willing to join me on this adventure to strategic thinking, developing additional revenue streams and taking opportunities for the future.

– Pro Trader


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