Diary Of A Football Trader – Issue 16
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Since August 2020, Pro Trader has been sharing his trading analysis and results on our blog.
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Now he is going to share his TOP TRADE every day
– All his pre match analysis
– How and Why he selected the match
– The exact markets to trade
– When to ENTER and when to EXIT
….AND.. what to do when things go positively and when things don't go to plan
ProTrader started his career and fascination with the financial markets as an Index Analyst at FTSE. He has since consulted for 15 years for some of the top Financial Institutions and Investment Banks in the world, where he specialised in financial instruments, pricing data, trading platforms and risk management solutions. He first started trading sports markets in early 2000, after the introduction and discovery of Betfair. He now trades the financial markets whilst working on entrepreneurial ventures with a focus on sports trading apps and e-commerce. He lives with his wife and young daughter between their homes of London, Sardinia, Odessa and Sochi. In his spare time, he is writing a book, enjoys outdoor pursuits with his family, learning Russian and of course, trading football markets.
Diary of a Football Trader
I really dislike the International breaks, as I’m sure you’re aware if you’ve been following my trading diaries. It’s International friendly matches, sometimes re-packaged as a tournament in order to generate revenue for UEFA. But now they don’t have the revenue from the fans attending matches, and so you wonder what the point is? It disrupts the rhythm in the league, players can come back injured, players may need to quarantine after having contact with / contracting coronavirus and it’s sometimes an absurd amount of travel for players (hardly eco-friendly). They then have to come back and be expected to perform for their team a few days later.
However, I view it now as when we had a total lock-down on all matches (except Belarus), and that sometimes you have to take the hand you are dealt and play it in the best possible way.
Saturday, 14th November, 2020
It’s UEFA Nations League, and the matches looked at are:
- Switzerland v Spain
- Portugal v France
Summary of Market Trading
Switzerland v Spain
I took a conservative back position on Switzerland shortly after kick-off for £10 at 5.3. After Switzerland scored, I closed the position for £17 profit.
Over / Under 2.5
Before kick-off, I took a lay position on overs for £50 at 1.92. As the match ran on, no further trades were made and it ended 1-1, banking £44 profit. To be fair, this was quite fortuitous, because Spain missed two penalties during the second-half.
Portugal v France
I took an early back position on Portugal for £50 at 2.36, which later I increased by £15 at 3.25. Later in the match after France scored I increased this position further at various points. With Portugal having chances but not managing to score, these positions produced an £82 loss.
Overall, these two matches produced a £21 loss.
Sunday, 15th November, 2020
The matches being looked at today are:
- Belgium v England
- Wales v Rep. of Ireland
Belgium v England
From my analysis, I expected BTTS ‘Yes’, and so took an early back position at 1.81 before increasing further at 1.9. As the match progressed, with Belgium ahead and England struggling to score, this position was closed for a £58 loss.
Wales v Rep. of Ireland
At half-time and seeing this match was 0-0, I determined that a goal must be coming from either team and so took a lay position on the draw at 1.75 for £50. With Wales scoring shortly afterwards, this position was closed to bank a £34 profit.
Overall, the two matches traded today produced £24 loss.
Monday,16th November, 2020
There’s no UEFA games on today, so I review and analyze the below match taking place in the English first division.
Plymouth Argyle v Portsmouth (English League 1)
Analysis pointed to both teams scoring in this match, and so I took a back position a few minutes in to the match for £50 at 1.64. This market was closed when Portsmouth equalized in the second-half, banking £30 profit.
After Plymouth scored, I was expecting a Portsmouth equalizer, and so took a lay on the home team at 1.79 for £50. When Portsmouth equalized, I closed the trade for a £44 profit.
Over / Under 2.5
I took an early lay position on ‘overs’ after the first goal for £50 at 1.25. I let this sit for a while before closing to bank £12 profit.
I backed 2-2 shortly after the first goal, with the rationale being I thought this would be a draw, and the early goal would create a score-line above 1-1.
This position was then later traded out to produce £33 profit, although the match did end 2-2.
Overall, trading this match produced £119 profit.
Tuesday, 17th November, 2020
Tonight it’s the return of the UEFA Nations League. The match I had originally analysed and was intending to focus on was Switzerland v Ukraine. However, this was called off earlier in the day due to coronavirus and the whole Ukrainian team being quarantined!
Instead, I looked at other matches taking place.
Spain v Germany
Over / Under 2.5
Analysis showed value in backing ‘unders’ in this market, with five of these sides previous meetings producing under 2.5 goals. Spain had also not scored more than one goal in their last five matches, and also not scored on two occasions. I took a lay position on ‘overs’ for £65, with an average price of 1.72. Against all expectations of how this match would play out, Germany had already conceded three goals by half-time, and this market closed with a £47 loss.
Over / Under 5.5
With the score now 5-0, I took a back position on overs at 1.78 for £50. When Spain scored their sixth, this market closed with a £37 profit.
Croatia v Portugal
Having an eye on this match, when Croatia took the lead I took a back position on Portugal at 1.92 for £45. With a few further trades, this market produced £29 profit.
Overall, these two matches traded today produced £19 profit.
Wednesday, 18th November, 2020
Further UEAFA Nations League matches are taking place, and thankfully this will be the last games until March next year!
Poland v Netherlands
Analysis pointed to a tight game, with both teams scoring. However, I was also favouring Poland to continue with their impressive form of not losing in their last five home matches.
I took a lay position on Netherlands at 2.04 for £55. With Poland, scoring in the fifth minute, this position was showing a profit. However, I decided to leave it open into the second-half to increase. Approximately 30 mins in to the second-half, with Netherlands looking more threatening, I closed this position for a £42 profit.
I was intending on taking a back position on ‘Yes’ before kick-off at around 1.84. However, the price had dropped down to 1.7, and so I decided to wait until it came back up to at least 1.8 again. However, with Poland scoring such an early goal, this opportunity was missed.
Over / Under 2.5
With Poland 1-0, I took lay positions on ‘overs’ for £60 at an average price of 1.29. With the match continuing in to the 70th minute and still at this score-line, I closed the trade for £28 profit.
Overall, this match produced £70 profit.
Thursday, 19th November, 2020
With no matches taking place today that I deem fit for trading, I look at tomorrow’s English Championship game between Coventry City and Birmingham City.
Coventry City v Birmingham City
Key Match Stats Summary:
– Coventry have lost 4 of their last 5 matches
– Coventry have seen both teams scoring (BTTS) in 4 of their 5 home matches
– Birmingham have seen BTTS in each of their last 4 matches
– Birmingham have lost their last 2 matches
– Birmingham have won once in their last 5 away matches (against Preston North End)
Previous Head to Head Summary:
– The last time these two teams played was in the FA Cup in February this year, where a 1-1 draw occurred, with Birmingham eventually winning on penalties after extra-time
– The above match followed a 0-0 tie where Coventry were at ‘home' (although it should be noted that both teams share the same match ground)
Team Form (last 5 matches):
– Coventry's latest match record reads W1 D0 L4
– Coventry's latest home match record reads W2 D1 L2
– In Coventry's last 5 home matches, both teams have scored 4 times
– In Coventry's last 5 home matches, over 2.5 goals has occurred 4 times
– Birmingham's latest match record reads W2 D1 L2
– Birmingham's latest away match record reads W1 D3 L1
– In Birmingham's last 5 matches, both teams have scored 4 times
– In Birmingham's last 5 matches, over 2.5 goals has occurred 4 times
Trading Markets Considered
With both teams showing a trend of both scoring and conceding goals, ‘Yes' appears to be the market that offers most value, which is currently available at 1.93.
BTTS – Market Entry Point:
I expect this price to fall as kick-off time approaches, and so an acceptable price would be 1.9. If the start price is below this, then it would be better to wait 10 minutes in to the game and 1.9 may be available again.
Chart to show Back price of BTTS ‘Yes’
BTTS Market Exit Scenarios:
(a) If Coventry score first in the first-half, this position will be showing a profit. Therefore, the trade can either be:
– Closed to take a decent profit
– Left to run slightly further on the expectation of Birmingham also scoring
(b) If Birmingham score first in the first-half, then the position will be showing a small profit, leading to:
– Close the trade for a profit
– If Coventry appear to be creating chances, then this should be left open on the expectation of them scoring
(c) If there are no goals by half-time, this trade will be showing a negative. If teams have been pressing for goals and both had shots on target, this should be:
– Left open with the expectation of goals to come in the second-half
– If this is not the case, then the position should be closed to minimise the loss
Friday, 20th November, 2020
Coventry City v Birmingham City
Analysis pointed to both teams scoring in this match, and so I took a back position on ‘Yes’ at 1.88 for £50, and later increased this laying ‘No’ at 1.4. However, this match did not live up to expectations and was a truly drab affair, with the score ending 0-0. How both these teams are in the Championship is a mystery, because they both play like league 2 sides at best. A £66 loss was taken on this forgettable game.
Overall, this week made just £97 profit (Betfair commission at 5% included). Admittedly, the International break didn’t help, but also many matches went against the run of form and expectations. On the bright-side, the hand dealt this week was poor, so to come out with any kind of profit is a bonus.
I’m now happy to put this disappointing week behind, and look ahead to more profitable weeks to come.
Thankfully, all major European Leagues are back in action tomorrow, including four matches in the Premier League.
A Personal Invitation from Pro Trader
I first started out trading financial markets nearly 20 years ago – mainly equities on the FTSE 100 and AIM (alternative investment market) and commodities, particularly gold and oil. Today I normally trade FX (foreign exchange – currencies).
Later I also started trading crypto-currencies, such as Bitcoin and Ethereum, which I still do today when I believe there is a profitable trade on.
The difference I have found with football markets is that you can actually see and know why prices are moving the way they are. This is not possible on the above markets I mentioned, since there is so much inside information, that even all the analysis in the world won’t uncover. With a football match, it is much more straight-forward, i.e. a team scores, their price goes down. It’s obviously not quite as simple as that, but it is definitely easier than guessing on the World price of gold, or why a crypto currency may go up one week and down the next.
I truly believe there is no better time to get involved in trading Football markets. The epidemic of Corona-virus is making the world almost house-bound for the foreseeable future. Maybe you have had your own working practices affected by this, especially if working in hospitality or sectors that have had to close their business. When will it all resume as normal? Unfortunately, no-one knows the answer to this.
However, even under closed doors stadiums, football matches will continue. Maybe you too can make a comfortable profit from just one football match a day. It’s certainly a good start to having an additional income stream, with no start-up costs or normal business regularities and uncertainties. There’s also no tax required to pay on profits.
Not every recommended trade will go to plan; that would be unrealistic. But when trades are seemingly going to go against a recommendation I will provide details on how to minimize risk by using strategic exit points, and sometimes other markets to hedge trades and still come out with a profit. This is my number one rule: Always look to protect capital and profits.
To follow these trades, you will need to have access to one of the exchanges. The primary exchange I use is Betfair, so prices quoted on other exchanges may vary.
I hope you are willing to join me on this adventure to strategic thinking, developing additional revenue streams and taking opportunities for the future.
– Pro Trader
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ProTrader started his career and fascination with the financial markets as an Index Analyst at FTSE. He has since consulted for 15 years for some of the top Financial Institutions and Investment Banks in the world, where he specialized in financial instruments, pricing data, trading platforms and risk management solutions. He first started trading sports markets in early 2000, after the introduction and discovery of Betfair. He now trades the financial markets whilst working on entrepreneurial ventures with a focus on sports trading apps and e-commerce. In his spare time, he is writing a series of books soon to be published, enjoys outdoor pursuits with his family, learning Russian and of course, trading football markets.