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Diary Of A Football Trader – Issue 18

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ProTrader started his career and fascination with the financial markets as an Index Analyst at FTSE. He has since consulted for 15 years for some of the top Financial Institutions and Investment Banks in the world, where he specialised in financial instruments, pricing data, trading platforms and risk management solutions. He first started trading sports markets in early 2000, after the introduction and discovery of Betfair. He now trades the financial markets whilst working on entrepreneurial ventures with a focus on sports trading apps and e-commerce. He lives with his wife and young daughter between their homes of London, Sardinia, Odessa and Sochi. In his spare time, he is writing a book, enjoys outdoor pursuits with his family, learning Russian and of course, trading football markets.

 

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Diary of a Football Trader – Issue 18

 

It’s again another ‘normal’ week of Football this week, with all top European matches taking place this weekend, followed by mid-week UEAFA Champions League and Europa League group games. Perhaps even closer to ‘normal’, with a small number of home fans (approx. 2,000) soon being allowed back in to some English stadiums. It will be interesting to monitor whether this will have an impact on matches, perhaps creating a bigger home advantage once again?

 

Saturday, 28th November, 2020

With the Premier League on, the matches looked at are:

  • Brighton v Liverpool
  • Everton v Leeds
  • West Brom v Sheffield United

 

Summary of Market Trading

Brighton v Liverpool

BTTS

I took a conservative back position on ‘Yes’ shortly after kick-off for £38 at 1.8.  With it looking doubtful in the second-half that both teams would score, I came out of the position slightly by backing ‘No’, before trading out again for a £15 profit.

 

 


 

Everton v Leeds United

Over / Under 2.5

From analysis, this match would have goals, and so I opened a back position on overs for £70 at an average price of 1.73. I increased this later by laying unders at 1.3. With the match ending 0-1, this position created a £76 loss.

 

 

 

Match Odds

25 minutes in to the match with the score 0-0, I opened a back position on Leeds for £25 at 2.85. I then traded this market further, focusing on the draw and laying Everton. When the match ended 0-1 to Leeds, a £51 profit was made.

 

 


West Brom v Sheffield United

Over / Under 2.5

From analysis this was going to be a low-scoring match. 35 minutes in to the game with the score 1-0, I opened a back position on unders for £50 at 2.02. With no further goals, this position made £48 profit.

 

 

Overall, these matches produced a £38 profit.

 


Sunday, 29th November, 2020

 

The matches being looked at today are:

  • Southampton v Manchester United
  • Chelsea v Tottenham
  • Arsenal v Wolves

 

Southampton v Manchester United

 

Over / Under 2.5

From my analysis, I expected a free-flowing match with goals. Before kick-off, I took a back position on overs at 1.85 for £100.  With the third goal being scored in the 60th minute, this market closed for a £81 profit.

 

 


Chelsea v Tottenham

Match Odds

I was expecting for a tight, low-scoring game, and so before kick-off took a lay position on overs for £50 at 1.8. Midway through the second-half, I closed the position to bank a £43 profit.

 

 

Match Odds

I took a tentative lay position on Chelsea for £25 at 2.1. Later in the second-half with the score 0-0, I closed this to bank £19 profit.

 

 

Correct Score

Expecting a draw, I took positions backing 0-0 and 1-1. As the match progressed goal-less, I closed both of these positions for £24 profit.

 

 


Arsenal v Wolves

Match Odds

My analysis pointed to Arsenal not to win this, and so I took a lay position on Arsenal at kick-off or £25 at 2.18. This was later increased by backing Wolves at half-time when the score was 1-2. I closed the position towards the end of the match for £61 profit.

 

 

 

Over / Under 3.5

With the score 1-2, I opened a back position on unders at 1.82 for £29. A few minutes later, I closed the position for a £12 profit.

 

 

Overall, the matches traded today produced £240 profit.

 


 

Monday,30th November, 2020

There’s two further Premier League matches taking place this evening, however the one I am most interested in is:

 

  • West Ham United v Aston Villa

 

West Ham United v Aston Villa

Over / Under 2.5

Analysis pointed to a low-scoring match (with a draw likely), and so I took a back position on unders at average odds of 2.26 and a lay position on overs at 1.65. Unfortunately for the trade, West Ham scored in the 2nd minute, putting the position into negative territory. Ideally, this position should have been closed immediately, but sometimes there’s an early goal and then nothing else for the entire match.  However, in this instance Aston Villa equalized, and West Ham followed up with a winner, ending 2-1. This created a £91 loss.

 

 

Match Odds

At kick-off, I took a back position on West Ham at 2.4 for £50. With the score now 2-1 and fearing a whole second-half for Villa to equalize again, I closed this position for a £28 profit.

 

 


 

Tuesday, 1st December, 2020

Tonight it’s again the UEFA Champions League, with 8 matches taking place.

 

Liverpool v Ajax

Over / Under 2.5

Against market sentiment, I was expecting a low-scoring encounter. From this perspective, I took a lay position on overs at the start, increasing the position until I had average odds of 1.47 at £105. The position was then traded out at various stages, resulting in a £57 profit.

 

 

 

Over / Under 3.5

Similar to the above, I also traded this market on the expectation of unders, which resulted in a £40 profit when the match ended 1-0.

 

 


Shakhtar Donetsk v Real Madrid

Over / Under 2.5

Shortly after kick-off I took a lay position on overs at 1.75 for £50. Just over 30 minutes in to the match, I increased this position by backing unders at 1.84.  These positions were then traded out for a £23 profit.

 

 

Match Odds

Towards the end of the first-half, I opened a speculative lay position on Real Madrid at 1.56 for £25. When Shakhtar took the lead, I closed the position for a £19 profit.

 

 

Correct Score

I traded this market, focusing on the score-lines 1-0, 0-1 and 1-1. Even though the eventual score was neither of these (2-0), I still manage to bank a £14 profit.

 

 


Atletico Madrid v Bayern Munich

 

Asian Handicap – Bayern +0.5

With Bayern already assured of top-spot in the group, Atletico Madid started the match as favourites. Many assumed Bayern would put out a vastly weaker team, and Atletico would win. However, that is not the Bayern way, so the price of nearly evens on Bayern +0.5 goals made appeal. I took a position on this market for £39 at 1.99, closing it out later for a £27 profit.

 

 

Over / Under 2.5

Expecting a low-scoring encounter, before kick-off I took a lay position on overs at 1.78 for £26.  With the score 1-0, I traded this out for a £19 profit.

 

 

Overall, the matches traded in today’s Champions League produced £200 profit.

 


Wednesday, 25th November, 2020

A further 8 UEAFA Champions League matches are taking place today.

 

Sevilla v Chelsea

 

Over / Under 2.5

Analysis pointed to a match with goals, seeing that both had already qualified, yet top-spot was up for grabs. Before kick-off, I took a back position on overs at 2.16 for £55. When Chelsea scored their third goal of the game, the market closed producing a £61 profit.

 

 

Over / Under 3.5

Later into the match at 0-3, it appeared another goal was going to come from somewhere. I opened a lay position on unders at 1.33 for £55 (£18.15 liability). When Chelsea scored their 4th, the market closed banking £52 profit.

 

 


Istanbul Basaksehir v RB Leipzig

 

Match Odds

With Leipzig already 1-0 up, I took a lay position on them for £35 at 1.35. When they scored their second, I increased this position at 1.18 for £36.  With Istanbul getting back in to the game and scoring goals, I closed this at 3-3 for a £47 profit.

 

 

Over / Under 4.5

With the score at 1-2, I took a small back position on overs at different price levels (average 1.76). When the 5th goal was scored, this market closed and banked an £18 profit.

 

 

Overall, these matches produced £178 profit.

 


Thursday, 3rd December, 2020

It’s Europa League action tonight. However, the main matches I have decided to follow are:

  • AC Milan v Celtic
  • Arsenal v Rapid Vienna

 

AC Milan v Celtic

Over / Under 3.5

Following analysis, it appeared this match would have more than 3.5 goals. Before kick-off, I had a took a back position on unders for £50 at 1.8. Celtic, against ALL expectations scored twice early on and so I immediately closed this position for a £32 loss.

 

 

Match Odds

With Milan 2 goals down in 14 minutes, it seemed a good value trade to back them now at an inflated price, since they still had plenty of time to get back in to the game. I backed them at £55 at 2.06, and later layed Celtic at 1.76 for £50. When Milan equalized, I closed these position for an £82 profit.

 

 

Milan -1

 

Before kick-off, this market looked good value, and so took a back position at 1.98 for £26. With Milan now back in the game and leading, I closed this position for a £22 profit.

 

 

Correct Score

30 minutes in to the match and seeing that this game was now looking the opposite of expectations, I took a back position on ‘any other home win’ for £50 at 1.91. When Milan scored their fourth goal, I closed the position for a £42 profit.

 

 


Arsenal v Rapid Vienna

Over / Under 3.5

Shortly after the first early Arsenal goal, and seeing how lively Arsenal were looking (could this be due to some fans back in the stadium?), I took a back position on overs at 1.7 for £55. On 47 minutes when Vienna scored, this market closed for a £37 profit.

 

 

Correct Score

17 minutes in to the match with the score 2-0, I took a back position on ‘any other home win’ for £100 at 1.64. This seemed good value, considering how Arsenal were playing, the time left on the clock and the quality of the opposition.  The additional fans may have also given them an additional bounce. With the score 3-1, I closed the position for a £48 profit.

 

 

Overall, these two Europa League matches traded produced £200 profit.

 


 

Friday, 4th December, 2020

 

Barnsley v AFC Bournemouth

 

BTTS

Analysis pointed to both teams scoring, and so I took a back position on ‘Yes’ at 1.85 (average odds) for £80. With Bournemouth scoring early in the 12th minute, this position was in profit. It was a decent game, with both sides having multiple shots and chances. Even towards the latter stages with the score 0-4, Barnsley still had urgency in them and were looking desperately for a goal.  I normally would have closed a position like this after a certain point, but I still expected them to get a goal right up to the end.  It was therefore left to run and resulted in an £80 loss when the match finished 0-4.

 

 

Over / Under 2.5

10 minutes in to the match and seeing how both teams were looking, I took a tentative back position on overs at 2.16 for £25. When Bournemouth scored their third goal of the game, this market closed and banked £28 profit.

 

 


Nimes v Marseille

 

Match Odds

35 minutes in to this match Marseille were creating good chances, yet the score was still 0-0. I took a back position on Marseille at 1.89 for £50. When Marseille scored in the 57th minute, I closed this position for a £34 profit.

 

 

The two matches traded today made an £18 loss.

 

Conclusion

Again, it was another busy week with 7 consecutive days of decent tradeable matches taking place.  And again, Covid-19 has an impact, with Friday’s targeted Premier League match being postponed due the Newcastle team being quarantined.  Apparently, this has come about following the International break, so why these matches were not cancelled is unbelievable.

On the plus side, it was good to see Arsenal fans (2,000) back in to the stadium, and this really did seem to give the team a much needed lift. Perhaps this could also have an impact on this coming weekend’s Premier League matches, with home teams performing better. It is worth checking whether matches you may be targeting are in the ‘covid tiers’ that allow some fans back in.

Overall, this week made £775 profit (Betfair commission included).

This weekend, all top European Leagues will be in action, and I will be posting Trade of The Day tomorrow for one of the four Premier League matches at around 12pm.

 

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