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Diary Of A Football Trader – Issue 19

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ProTrader started his career and fascination with the financial markets as an Index Analyst at FTSE. He has since consulted for 15 years for some of the top Financial Institutions and Investment Banks in the world, where he specialised in financial instruments, pricing data, trading platforms and risk management solutions. He first started trading sports markets in early 2000, after the introduction and discovery of Betfair. He now trades the financial markets whilst working on entrepreneurial ventures with a focus on sports trading apps and e-commerce. He lives with his wife and young daughter between their homes of London, Sardinia, Odessa and Sochi. In his spare time, he is writing a book, enjoys outdoor pursuits with his family, learning Russian and of course, trading football markets.

 

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Diary of a Football Trader – Issue 19

 

This week the trading diary takes a slightly different format. It will focus only on those matches where a ‘Trade of the day’ (TOTD) is recommended. This will have the benefit of showing how other markets can be used to compliment or hedge a trade recommendation, depending how the match is progressing. Having less trades to write about will also allow more room for other tools, techniques, analysis and software to be shown in more detail in the coming issues. It will also detail reasoning behind match, market and pricing selections.

 

 

Saturday, 5th December, 2020

 

Summary of Market Trading

 

Manchester City v Fulham

Analysis pointed to a high-scoring affair, with the previous week Manchester City returning to their goal-scoring form with a 5-0 win over Burnley. Fulham also have the second highest number of goals conceded in the league, with 21 (just two below West Brom on 23).

 

TOTD

Over / Under 3.5

I took a back position on ‘overs’ before kick-off for £50 at 1.88.  Manchester City did indeed get off to a flying start, scoring in the 5th minute and following up a second 20 minutes later.  However, from this point they did appear to then sit-back more and lack urgency, especially in the second-half. However, I was expecting them to then turn it on again after the lull and so left the trade alone. Unfortunately, this did not materialize, resulting in a £50 loss.

 

 


Sunday, 6th December, 2020

 

Tottenham v Arsenal

With Arsenal struggling for goals in the Premier League, combined with Tottenham having the best defensive record (just 9 goals conceded), Tottenham’s back price to win looked good value.

 

TOTD

Match Odds

Derby games, like cup-games can sometimes throw up an unexpected result. However, with all indications pointing to a Tottenham home win, I am happy to take a position on them.  I took a back position on them at 2.28 for £50. Just before half-time with the score 1-0, I decided to close the trade and take a £22 profit. However, moments after doing this, Tottenham scored a second goal!

 

 


 Monday,7th December, 2020

 

Brighton v Southampton

 

TOTD – BTTS

Analysis pointed to a fairly open game with both teams getting on the score-sheet, and so before kick-off so I took a back position on ‘Yes’ at 1.8 for £50.  Brighton scored in the 26th minute (penalty), and Southampton equalized just before half-time, closing this market for a £42 profit.

 

 


Match Odds

Favouring Southampton to win this match, before kick-off I took a back position on Southampton at 3.15 for £35. With the score now 1-0 to Brighton, I increased this position by laying Brighton at 1.53. After Southampton equalized, and then scored a second (penalty) later on, I came out of the trade to minimize the risk of a late Brighton equalizer. This banked a £98 profit.

 

 

Overall, this match produced a £140 profit.

 


Tuesday, 8th December, 2020

Tonight it’s UEFA Champions League, with 8 matches taking place. However, the match I will be following will be:

 

RB Leipzig v Manchester United

Considering the recent previous result between these sides (Manchester United won 5-0), coupled with the fact Manchester United need at least a draw to progress in this competition, it would seem that backing Manchester United at a decent price would be beneficial from a trading perspective. Acknowledging that Leipzig have good home form (beating both PSG and Istanbul) in this competition, but also taking in to account their weekend's grueling 3-3 encounter with Bayern Munich, it is anticipated that Manchester United will look to win this game outright rather than playing for a draw and risk being knocked-out of the competition. Well, you would think so wouldn’t you!

 


TOTD – Match Odds

I took a back position on Manchester United before the start at 2.98 for £100. With Leipzig scoring in the second minute, I increased the position by laying Leipzig at various stages, until I had average odds of 1.44 at £175 laying them. With Manchester United scoring in the 80th minute to make it 3-1, and then a second moments later to make it 3-2, it did look like they would get an equalizer. However, they didn’t and this position closed at the end for a £178 loss.

 

 

BTTS

Later in the second-half, with Leipzig leading 3-0, I was confident Manchester United would get back in to this game, and so took a lay position on ‘No’ for £100 at 1.54. When Manchester United scored in the 80th minute, this market closed and produced a £95 profit.

 

 

Over / Under 3.5

Shortly after Leipzig scored their first goal, I took a back position on overs at 1.8 for £55. When Manchester United scored their first goal of the match, this market closed for a £42 profit.

 

 

Overall, this match made a £41 loss.

 


Wednesday, 9th December, 2020

A further 8 UEFA Champions League matches are taking place today. The match I have selected for following and a Trade of the Day recommendation is:

 

Ajax v Atalanta

Ajax go in to this match as favourites, priced at 2.16.  With the recent previous result between these sides ending in a draw, coupled with the fact Atalanta need just a draw to progress in this competition, it would seem Atalanta will be set to defend their position. Away from home, Atalanta have also conceded just a single goal in their last 4 outings.

This makes the over/under goals market appealing. Backing under 2.5 is available at 3.2, however the more secure under 3.5 price is 1.9. Predictology is also highlighting this as a good value position to take.


TOTD

Over / Under 3.5

Opting for the more secure under 3.5 goals market for TOTD, I took a back position on ‘unders’ at 1.92 for £50.  With just a single goal being scored, this market produced a £44 profit.

 

 

Over / Under 2.5

Believing that this would also produce under 2.5 goals, I took a lay position on overs at 1.44 for £57. When the match finished, this market banked £54 profit.

 

 

Match Odds

Expecting a tight defensive display from Atalanta for this match, before kick-off I took a lay position on Ajax at 2.18 for £44. With Atalanta scoring the only goal of the game late on, this produced for a £42 profit.

 

 

Correct Score

Again, expecting a low-scoring affair, I took positions on 0-0 (@16.5) and 0-1 (@13.5). These were later traded out for a £54 profit.

 

 

Overall, these markets produced £194 profit.

 


Thursday, 10th December, 2020

It is Europa League action tonight with 24 matches taking place. However, the main match I have decided to follow for TOTD is:

 

Bayer Leverkusen v Slavia Prague

TOTD

Over / Under 2.5

Following analysis, it appeared this match would have more than 2.5 goals. Before kick-off, I had a took a back position on unders for £50 at 1.75. Leverkusen were dominant from the off, scoring in the 8th minute. On the 59th minute when Leverkusen scored their third goal, this market closed and banked a £36 profit.

 

 


 

Friday, 11th December, 2020

 

Leeds United v West Ham United

 

TOTD

Over / Under 2.5

My analysis pointed to a tight match here, with goals at a premium. From this perspective, I was looking at the under 2.5 goals market. Predictology and Infogol also showed value in backing unders at around 2.4.

Before kick-off, I took a back position at 2.52 for £50. In the first 5 minutes, Leeds are awarded a penalty, which is terrible when backing an unders position.  However, the penalty is then saved. But, it was deemed Fabianski was off his line when taken, so a retake happens which Leeds this time manage to score. When there is such an early goal in this market, it is nearly always best to just close the position, which I did. However, after the match lulled somewhat, I re-entered this market again laying overs at 1.36 (average odds) for £60.

After the negative position reduced, I then closed the trade to take a £17 loss on this market.

 

 

The below chart highlights the area where overs was layed at 1.16 (with the trade being closed later in the match at 1.87).

 

 

Over / Under 3.5 & Match Odds

With the under 2.5 goals looking precarious due to the early penalty, I then turned my sights to the above markets. Since the price had now dropped, I looked to lay over 3.5 (keeping the opinion goals will not be in abundance), whilst also opposing Leeds (West Ham were looking superior).

For some reason, Betfair isn’t grouping these trades by market, so they are not in order, but overall these markets made a £124 profit.

 

 

Overall, this match made a £107 profit from these trades.

 


Conclusion

Again, it was another busy week with 7 consecutive days of decent tradeable matches taking place.

The two Manchester teams were a letdown, which prevented two trade recommendations this week coming good. The Friday night Premier League game between Leeds and West Ham, where under 2.5 was predicted was also spoiled by an early penalty award (that was taken twice!). This changed the game complexion and West Ham had to react early on. However, Leeds still did not score in open play, and West Ham scored the third goal late on, so perhaps if you were following this recommendation you still made a profit.

The summary chart of this week’s ‘Trade of The Day' recommendations is shown below. Even with the above mentioned set-backs, just under 4 points were banked.

 

 

This weekend, all top European Leagues will again be in action, and I will be posting Trade of The Day for the Everton v Chelsea match (8pm kick-off) at the slightly later time of around 2pm.

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