Diary Of A Football Trader – Issue 21
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ProTrader started his career and fascination with the financial markets as an Index Analyst at FTSE. He has since consulted for 15 years for some of the top Financial Institutions and Investment Banks in the world, where he specialised in financial instruments, pricing data, trading platforms and risk management solutions. He first started trading sports markets in early 2000, after the introduction and discovery of Betfair. He now trades the financial markets whilst working on entrepreneurial ventures with a focus on sports trading apps and e-commerce. He lives with his wife and young daughter between their homes of London, Sardinia, Odessa and Sochi. In his spare time, he is writing a book, enjoys outdoor pursuits with his family, learning Russian and of course, trading football markets.
Diary of a Football Trader – Issue 21
It’s now entering the post-Christmas schedule, with games on most days, including the English League Cup, FA Cup and the League. This makes other factors important to observe in this period, such as lethargy and squad rotation. This will mean matches perhaps won’t be so much ‘end-to-end’ with more action taking place in midfield. This theoretically should result in fewer goals. And of course, this year’s enemy No.1 can always pop-up unexpectedly at short-notice, Coronavirus.
Saturday, 2nd January, 2021
Summary of Market Trading
Brighton v Wolves
Expecting an open game here between two relatively attacking teams, I favoured Wolves to come out on top.
TOTD
Match Odds
I took a back position on Wolves for £50 at 2.94. Brighton got off to a fortuitous start and were 1-0 up in the 13th minute. At this point I increased my position by laying Brighton at 1.69. Wolves soon equalized and then scored another, so at this point at 1-3, I closed the trade for a £99 profit. Interestingly, Brighton went on and scored two more, with the match ending 3-3. However, when a team you are backing have a two goal lead, the trade should always be closed to protect capital and profit.
Sunday, 3rd January, 2021
Chelsea v Manchester City
All indicators pointed to a match under 2.5 goals, and so this market was looked at for trading opportunities.
TOTD
Under / over 2.5
I took an initial position on under 2.5 goals at 2.16 for £55. Within 21 minutes there had already been two goals scored. As these goals went in, I increased my position in this market at favorable prices. However, with City dominant this position was closed at 0-3 before half-time for a loss of 71.
BTTS
I was also interested in this market, since I didn’t expect Chelsea to score against the tightest defence in the league. I took a lay position on ‘Yes’ at 1.46 for £50. As the match neared its conclusion, I began to close this position out, taking a £58 profit.
Monday, 4th January, 2021
Southampton v Liverpool
TOTD
Over / Under 3.5
All analysis and indicators pointed to a low-scoring game, as opposed to what the Betfair market was expecting. Before kick-off I took a back position on unders at 1.78 for £50. Southampton scored early, but this didn’t affect the result of this trade, and £46 profit was banked when the match ended 1-0.
Tuesday, 5th January, 2021
Tottenham v Brentford
Tonight there’s an English League Cup match between Tottenham Hotspur and Brentford. Tottenham go in to this match as firm favourites, currently priced at 1.47, whereas Brentford are 8.6, with the draw 4.8. With Tottenham's strong home form and record for clean sheets, a Tottenham win is hard to oppose. However, the price in this market doesn't appeal for a straight trade recommendation. Considering 3 of Tottenham's last 6 home matches have ended 2-0, this score-line looks most likely here.
Looking at other markets, under 2.5 goals is 2.22, with BTTS ‘No' at 2. The half-time/full-time market also appeals for Tottenham/Tottenham at 2.3.
With this match being a semi-final, it is expected a tighter cagier game will be played by both sides.
TOTD
Over / Under 2.5
Before kick-off, I took a lay position on over 2.5 at 1.79 for £50. After Tottenham scored their first early goal (which they invariably do), I increased this position at 1.49 for a further £50. Later in the game, I closed this position out to bank a £53 profit.
Wednesday, 6th January, 2021
Manchester United v Manchester City
Manchester City go in to this match as favourites, currently priced at 2.1, whereas Manchester United are 3.7, with the draw 3.85. Again, being a semi-final this may well be a tight affair.
Also, considering the last 3 matches between these sides have produced under 2.5 goals and both teams to score ‘No', a low-scoring match is expected.
Looking at other markets, under 2.5 goals is 2.24, with BTTS ‘No' at 2.42.
TOTD
Over / Under 2.5
Before kick-off, I took a back position on unders at 2.26 for £50. With the score still 0-0 at half-time, this trade was well in profit. Later on, I closed this position out to bank a £47 profit.
Thursday, 7th January, 2021
This is a No Trade Day.
Friday, 8th January, 2021
Wolves v Crystal Palace
Wolves go in to this match as favourites, currently priced at 2.18, whereas Crystal Palace are 3.95, with the draw 3.4.
Considering the last 5 matches between these sides have produced under 2.5 goals and both teams to score ‘No' 4 times, another low-scoring match is anticipated.
However, looking at under 2.5 goals is 1.72, with BTTS ‘No' at 1.93. Therefore, in this instance the match odds market backing Wolves makes more appeal at the bigger price (2.18).
TOTD
Match Odds
Before kick-off, I took a back position on Wolves at 2.18 for £50. Wolves scored in the 35th minute, and this position was left to run a little longer, before closing out for a £39 profit.
Over / Under 2.5
Analysis pointed to a match under 2.5 goals, and so before kick-off I took a back position on unders at average odds of 1.78 for £60. As the match progressed just 1-0, and with Palace not having any shots on target, I closed this position for a £39 profit.
Conclusion
A week of a mixed bag of competitions, including Premier League, League Cup and the FA Cup matches. Four of the six recommendations also featured going under a total number of goals, which three of them prospered. It’s interesting that two of the match recommendations also featured backing Wolves, and both were profitable in these instances.
Overall, over 15.6 points profit was made from this week’s trade recommendations.
The next three days we have further FA Cup matches taking place, before more Premier League games commence on the 12th January running all through the week. As form and the unpredictable events begin to settle slightly, it is a good time for analysis and predictions to take hold to maximize profits. Good luck everyone!
ProTrader started his career and fascination with the financial markets as an Index Analyst at FTSE. He has since consulted for 15 years for some of the top Financial Institutions and Investment Banks in the world, where he specialized in financial instruments, pricing data, trading platforms and risk management solutions. He first started trading sports markets in early 2000, after the introduction and discovery of Betfair. He now trades the financial markets whilst working on entrepreneurial ventures with a focus on sports trading apps and e-commerce. In his spare time, he is writing a series of books soon to be published, enjoys outdoor pursuits with his family, learning Russian and of course, trading football markets.