Diary of A Football Trader – Issue 24
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ProTrader started his career and fascination with the financial markets as an Index Analyst at FTSE. He has since consulted for 15 years for some of the top Financial Institutions and Investment Banks in the world, where he specialized in financial instruments, pricing data, trading platforms and risk management solutions. He first started trading sports markets in early 2000, after the introduction and discovery of Betfair. He now trades the financial markets whilst working on entrepreneurial ventures with a focus on sports trading apps and e-commerce. He lives with his wife and young daughter and enjoy travelling (when permitted). In his spare time, he is writing a series of books, enjoys outdoor pursuits with his family, and of course, trading football markets.
Diary of a Football Trader – Issue 24
It’s again still a very busy period of fixtures, and this week we have the addition of FA Cup games taking place. The matches continue, but the fans continue to be excluded. This is apparently having an impact on ‘home advantage’, as I mentioned many months ago. Data from the German Bundesliga showed a stark decline in this, with the percentage of games won by the home team falling by almost half, from 40% to 21%. Another report from Austria found a lack of fans watching coincided with a lack of arguments on the pitch. The research found that on average, there were nearly 20% fewer ‘emotional incidents’ in a match where fans were not present. They also showed a much lower instance of where the referee was involved in such an instance. This is intriguing, because it should theoretically mean less cards being issued. I haven’t run the numbers on this for the Premier League so far this season, but it would be interesting to see if in fact the cards issued by referees has fallen for this season. But if you are someone that looks at the ‘cards market’, then maybe this could be a further consideration for matches.
Saturday, 23rd January, 2021
Summary of Market Trading
Aston Villa v Newcastle United
Aston Villa go in to this match as favourites, currently priced at 1.57, whereas Newcastle are 6.4, with the draw 4.7. Considering that Newcastle haven't scored in their last 5 away games, and that Aston Villa have one of the tightest defenses in the league, we should be looking at a low-scoring match, therefor backing under 2.5 goals was deemed the best trade to take.
Over / Under 2.5
I took a lay position on ‘Over’ for £125 at average odds of 1.5 (before kick-off, and then as the match progressed). When the score was 2-0 to Villa I began to close the trade out to minimize risk. In the end, this market made £27 profit, although the match did end 2-0 and more profit could have been made.
Sunday, 24th January, 2021
Everton v Sheffield Wednesday (FA Cup)
Everton unsurprisingly go in to this match as favourites, currently priced at just 1.38, whereas Sheffield Wednesday are 10.5, with the draw 5.4.
Looking at the latest team news, Everton manager Carlo Ancelotti will be avoiding an upset here by fielding a strong side for this match, including the return of top Everton goal-scorer Calvert-Lewin.
Looking at the correct score market as an indicator, the favourite score-line with the shortest odds is ‘any other home win', at 5.9 (meaning the market expectation is for Everton to score at least 4 goals). Everton are also predicted to start quickly, and have an average first time goal scored of 25 minutes (home) in the Premier League.
Under / Under 2.5
I took a back position on over 2.5 goals at 1.86 for £60. With Everton scoring their 3rd goal in the 62nd minute, this market was closed and £50 profit banked. The match ended 3-0, so the correct score market indication at the beginning did not prove correct.
Monday, 25th January, 2021
Wycombe Wanderers v Tottenham Hotspur (FA Cup)
Tottenham unsurprisingly go in to this match as big favourites, currently priced at just 1.21, whereas Wycombe are 16.5, with the draw 8.6.
Looking at the latest team news, Tottenham manager Mourinho has confirmed he will be taking a strong squad to Adams Park, although it is expected that top-scorers Kane and Son will be named as substitutes.
Looking at the correct score market as an indicator, the favourite score-line with the shortest odds is ‘any other away win', at just 3.15 (meaning the market expectation is for Tottenham to score at least 4 goals). However, the over 2.5 goals market is trading at just 1.45 to back.
I think it is unlikely Wycombe will score against a Mourinho team this time, which makes the BTTS ‘No' market at 1.89 appealing for a trade.
BTTS – No
Before kick-off, I took a back position on backing ‘No’ at an average price of 1.82 for £81. Against expectations and market sentiment, Wycombe scored first in the 25th minute. Believing that Tottenham would eventually score, and with the price now so low, this market position was in an unfortunate position. With the price now elevated for Tottenham, I then opened a position backing Tottenham at 1.81 for £100. In the end Tottenham went on to win the match 1-4, and overall a £4 loss was made. This is a useful strategy to implement when events occur against expectations and run of play, that other markets can be used to compensate for inevitable losses in other markets.
Tuesday, 26th January, 2021
Crystal Palace v West Ham United
West Ham go in to this match as favourites, currently priced at 2.44, whereas Crystal Palace are 3.35, with the draw also 3.35.
West Ham have definitely benefited from Manager David Moyes and his defensive discipline. In fact, West Ham have conceded just 1 goal in their last 5 matches. Although Crystal Palace are often hard for teams to break-down, they have still conceded 6 goals in their last 5 matches.
Crystal Palace historically have a much better home form then away, partly due to the raucous support at Selhurst Park. However, without that, combined with Antonio now fully back in the team, a West Ham win to move them up to a possible 4th spot looks the best call here.
Backing ‘West Ham' in this market makes most appeal at a decent-value price of 2.44. A small defensive hedge in the correct score market is also favoured.
Match Odds – West Ham United
Before kick-off, I took a back position on ‘West Ham’ at average odds of 2.47 for £100. Of course, Crystal Palace then score in the 3rd minute of the match, putting this in to an uncomfortable positon. However, having faith in analysis prevailed, and 6 minutes later West Ham deservedly equalize. They then followed up with a second 15 minutes later and a third in the second-half. They were dominant and the trade was free to run until the end, banking £133 profit.
Sometimes when you are backing a particular team, and the opposing teams scores first, it is best to keep your nerve and wait for a response. Fortunately, Crystal Palace scored early on, (not late in the second-half) to give West Ham time to re-group and equalize quickly.
Wednesday, 27th January, 2021
Burnley v Aston Villa
Aston Villa go in to this match as favourites, currently priced at 2, whereas Burnley are 4.1, with the draw also 3.8.
Aston Villa have the 3rd tightest defence in the league, shipping just 18 goals so far this season. Burnley are placed 7th, having shipped 22, but have also scored the fewest (10).
This has the makings of another low-scoring affair, so the under 2.5 goals market is favoured.
Backing ‘Unders' in this market makes most appeal at a decent-value price of 2.08. Predictology are also highlighting this selection as high-value at 1.99.
Over / Under 2.5
Before kick-off, I took a back position on unders for £100 at an average price of 2. Surprisingly and totally against run of form and analysis, Burnley score three goals, and win the match 3-2. This was a bizarre result, considering Burnley have scored 1 goal or less in their last 5 Premier League matches. This created a £112 loss on this market.
Thursday, 28th January, 2021
Tottenham Hotspur v Liverpool
Liverpool go in to this match as favourites, currently priced at 2.22, whereas Tottenham are 3.45, with the draw 3.75.
Although Liverpool have had a slight goal drought of late, they did put 2 past Manchester United in the FA Cup at the weekend (whilst losing 3-2). Tottenham have also scored 8 goals in their last 3 games.
Whilst also expecting both teams to score (back price 1.67), the over 2.5 goals market makes more appeal at 1.79.
Over / Under 2.5 Goals
Before kick-off, and as the match progressed I built a back position on overs at an average price of 1.9 for £85. In the 49th minute, the third goal was scored and the market was closed, banking a £75 profit.
Friday, 29th January, 2021
No Trade Day
Again, there have been some surprising results and changes of fortune in the Premier League. What’s more, is that it looks like this is set to continue, with many further upsets along the way.
I hope so, because I backed West Ham United to win the league at 700/1. They are currently now just 350/1, so it just goes to show that anything is possible. 😉
After beating Liverpool on Sunday, who knows what the price will be!
This week, 6.11 points profit was banked from Trade of the Day recommendations. Even at a modest £10 a point stake that’s an additional £61 profit banked for the week. £50 a point would bank £305 for the week.
Again, next week has more mid-week Premier League action taking place, with trade recommendations being posted every day.
Enjoy the rest of your weekend, stay safe, and stay profitable.
ProTrader started his career and fascination with the financial markets as an Index Analyst at FTSE. He has since consulted for 15 years for some of the top Financial Institutions and Investment Banks in the world, where he specialized in financial instruments, pricing data, trading platforms and risk management solutions. He first started trading sports markets in early 2000, after the introduction and discovery of Betfair. He now trades the financial markets whilst working on entrepreneurial ventures with a focus on sports trading apps and e-commerce. He lives with his wife and young daughter between their homes of London, Sardinia, Odessa and Sochi. In his spare time, he is writing a book, enjoys outdoor pursuits with his family, learning Russian and of course, trading football markets.