Diary of a Football Trader – Issue 46
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Diary of a Football Trader – Issue 46
What an entertaining, surprising and crazy week of matches we have witnessed at the Euros. The favourites from the beginning, France, being knocked out by Switzerland in a penalty shoot-out. Even crazier, is that it was their star-player and coveted striker Mbappe that failed to score the final kick-off the game. Ukraine just scrapped through the group stage via the 3rd place group, but now find themselves in a quarter-final against England! England themselves surprised many with a 2-0 defeat of Germany. This is not normal. Prior to this, England have won just once in their last five matches played against Germany.
The disappointing news is four of the last five matches featuring a ‘Trade of The Day’ recommendation on the Euros, had a red-card shown. A sending off. Now as spoken about previously, this certainly changes the complexion and potential result of a match. This is really unfortunate, and has obviously had a big impact on results this week. This is surely an outlier having so many sending-offs in selected matches (there has been 6 reds shown so far in the tournament, and 135 yellow cards). Hopefully, next week we will resume to business as usual: winning trades and making profits.
Now, back to the latest edition of the matches traded in the round of 16 and the first quarter-final match, which covers 26th June – 2nd July
Saturday, 26th June, 2021
Wales v Denmark
Denmark go in to this match as favourites, currently priced at 1.98, Wales at 5.2, with the draw at 3.3.
Although this is classed as a Wales home game, it is being played in Amsterdam, Netherlands.
Both teams qualified in 2nd place in their respective groups, with Wales on 4 points and Denmark on 3.
Wales' last group match was against Italy (although much changed starting line-up) and lost 1-0. However, they had already effectively qualified, and so didn't need to go out and score. This match against Denmark – they must score if they want to progress without facing extra-time, or even penalties.
Denmark in their last group match went all-out and thrashed Russia 1-4 (in Copenhagen, Denmark) to secure qualification. They obviously have goals in them when needed, and now it's knock-out time, they will also need to score and have the quality to do so.
It's difficult to call an outright winner in this match, and potentially a 1-1 awaits.
Therefore, both teams to score looks a high-value call at 2.46.
Both Teams To Score – ‘Yes’
I took both a back position on ‘Yes’ £55 at 2.48. This was then increased by laying ‘No’ at 1.61. Denmark got off to a good start, scoring in the 27th minute. However, they then proceeded to dominate, and by the 88th minute scored their 3rd goal. This was one of the matches where a red-card was issued to Wales. Although it was late on, it still impacted the game, since Wales still had time to score. However, Denmark then went on to score a fourth goal in the 94th minute. I had partially traded out, and overall a £43 loss was taken.
Sunday, 27th June, 2021
Netherlands v Czech Republic
Netherlands go in to this match as favourites, currently priced at 1.69, Czech Republic at 6, with the draw at 4.
At the price, the Netherlands are not worth backing. They were lucky to get a 3rd goal and beat Ukraine last week with the end result being 3-2. This Czech team will push them further, and perhaps even cause a surprise upset.
However, with the Netherlands freely scoring goals (8 in their last 3 group games), and the Czech Republic also having an attacking mentality, this is not going to be a boring, sterile affair. It is expected that both teams will do the best to attack, and it is unlikely there will be any ‘parking of the bus'.
Therefore, over 2.5 goals looks a high-value call at decent odds of 2.
Over 2.5 Goals
I opened a back position on ‘over’ for £110 at odds of 2. Again, Netherlands received a red-card shortly in to the second-half. The Czech Republic then went on to score twice, with no reply from a depleted Netherlands. I had mostly started to come out of the trade with the sending off, so loss was reduced to £58.
Monday, 28th June, 2021
Croatia v Spain
Spain go in to this match as favourites, currently priced at 1.65, Croatia at 6.8, with the draw at 3.95.
Yesterday, we saw a disappointment, primarily because the Netherlands had a player sent off and The Czech Republic went on to win the match 2-0. The trade recommendation was for over 2.5 goals.
A potential upset was highlighted, and perhaps the same could happen in this match. However, Croatia is without their top goal-scorer in the tournament so far (Perisic, 2 goals), due to Coronavirus.
Spain drew their first 2 matches in the tournament, against Sweden and Poland, and scoring just 1 goal in the process. They managed to qualify with a 5-0 win against Slovakia. Without that win, Spain would have been going home.
Croatia, even without one of their key players, will prove hard for Spain to breakdown.
Therefore, under 2.5 goals looks a fair-value call at odds of 1.74. Generally, I'm not keen on backing or trading on lower prices than 2, but realistically, this seems to offer the best value available.
The other option considered was both teams to score ‘No', which is basically the same price. However, with a potential 1-1 score, this carries more risk.
Under 2.5 Goals
I took a back position on ‘under’ for £100 at a price of 1.78. Croatia got off to a good start via a Spain own goal. At this point, I increased my position by laying overs. This eventually turned in to a surprising goal-fest, with full time ending 3-3. Spain went on to score two further goals in extra-time, resulting in a 3-5 win for them. This match resulted in a £172 loss.
Tuesday, 29th June, 2021
Sweden v Ukraine
Sweden go in to this match as favourites, currently priced at 2.48, Ukraine at 3.35, with the draw at 3.25.
We've witnessed a couple of upsets in the group of 16 so far, with both Netherlands and France (the favourites) being eliminated.
This match also has the potential for an upset, with Ukraine fully capable of progressing against Sweden. Sweden will play a more defensive low-block, whereas Ukraine will go out attacking from the off. This indeed could be an intriguing match, and I believe that Ukraine will outscore Sweden.
Personally, I have backed Ukraine to progress. But this is a higher risk strategy that is not suitable for a trade recommendation (backed at 150, now traded out at under 40).
Because Sweden could well score on the counter-attack against a suspect Ukraine defence, the best trade for this match is over 2.5 goals at a value price of 2.64.
I was actually very tempted to back England as the recommendation for today. But it's a tough match to call, and possibly personal emotion is a factor to consider. However, I still fully expect that England will beat Germany.
Over 2.5 Goals
I took a back position on ‘over’ for £55 at 2.64. As the match progressed, I increased this position by laying under at 1.45. Ukraine scored moments later on 27 minutes. Sweden equalized also in the first-half, and the trade was in decent profit. However, I was sure there would be at least another goal in the second-half. As it happened, it remained 1-1. This match also featured a red-card for Sweden in extra-time, and Ukraine then went on to win the match 1-2. £67 loss overall.
Wednesday, 30th June, 2021
Rosenborg v Haugesund
With the round of 16 matches completed for the Euros, this is a day of rest (or should have been). While other leagues are resting due to the Euros and end of season, the Norwegian championship continues.
Rosenborg go in to this match as favourites, currently priced at 1.96, Haugesund at 4.3, with the draw at 3.8.
Rosenborg has a big shortfall in three matches in a row – 4.24 xG in total. Haugesund should have conceded 2.44 xGA in their last matches.
Rosenborg has previously scored at least 2 goals in 6 consecutive games.
But the defence of Rosenborg is not great, statistically. They have conceded in 10 of their last 11 matches (18 goals in total).
Over 2.5 Goals
I took a back position on ‘Over’ for £100 at a price of 1.87. This was increased slightly as the match continued goalless, by laying unders at 1.44. The match finished 0-0, and £135 loss was de-banked.
Thursday, 1st July, 2021 – No Trade Day
Friday, 2nd July, 2021
Switzerland v Spain
The first match of the quarter-finals now begins. Spain go in to this match as favourites, currently priced at 1.68, Switzerland at 6.2, with the draw at 4.
Spain’s form has improved, and facing a Swiss team that has faltered defensively against the two top teams they’ve met. Spain are finding form at the right time, scoring 10 goals in their last 2 matches.
Overall, even at this stage we should be seeing over 2.5 goals.
Over 2.5 Goals
I took a back position on ‘over’ for £115 at average odds of 1.96. Spain scored in the 8th minute (Swiss own goal), and this proved promising. However, as the match progressed, I took some risk out of the trade by backing unders at just 1.34. Switzerland also received a red-card in the second-half of this match. With the match ending 1-1, £58 loss was taken. Spain went on to win on penalties.
It’s been a hugely disappointing week of trade recommendations, and as stated at the beginning, four of the five Euro matches covered contained a player being sent-off, which is highly unusual, unfortunate and detrimental to trades.
Overall, this week period covered in Diary Issues 46, produced 18 points loss, as shown below:
However, overall, Trade of The Day recommendations have still produced from the start of the year 19.3% return on investment (ROI) and over 193% return on capital (ROC).
The next diary issue will contain two of the last four quarter-finals matches, both the semi-finals and lastly the final, on 11th July.
Enjoy the upcoming finale to the tournament, stay safe, and stay profitable
ProTrader started his career and fascination with the financial markets as an Index Analyst at FTSE. He has since consulted for 15 years for some of the top Financial Institutions and Investment Banks in the world, where he specialized in financial instruments, pricing data, trading platforms and risk management solutions. He first started trading sports markets in early 2000, after the introduction and discovery of Betfair. He now trades the financial markets whilst working on entrepreneurial ventures with a focus on sports trading apps and e-commerce. In his spare time, he is writing a series of books soon to be published, enjoys outdoor pursuits with his family, learning Russian and of course, trading football markets.