You do not have to win every trade… (and how to deal with trades when you do actually lose)
It’s funny as a bettor, (and I have mentioned this mantra many times myself) we are told and rightly so, that we are going to lose more bets than we win, but that does not mean we won’t make a profit.
On most occasions, with experience and discipline you can throw off a losing bet quite quickly and move straight on to another one.
Yet conversely, when we start trading we suddenly feel like we have to be right 100% of the time. That every trade has to be the right one, and if one goes against us we feel we’ve failed or quit our strategy, even though it was probably a good one.
Funny isn’t it, how the mind works.
This mistake can be related to the common novice mistake of trading out of the winners too early and trading out of the losers (if at all) to late – but that is a much bigger topic and one for another time.
So to help anyone who has been feeling that way recently or if you are just starting out on your trading journey, I thought I’d share a trade I did recently that although it lost, I was extremely happy with it all the same – and how I managed the emotions in-between.
Over the other weekend, I found myself monitoring the matches in the Japanese J-League and one game, in particular, caught my eye. I’d marked it up as a potential goals trading game but the conditions didn’t suit so I never entered – but I was drawn to the match stats, thanks to SofaScore.
Urawa Red Diamonds had scored early but had been under the cosh ever since. The match reached half time at 1-0 and I decided to watch the first 15 minutes of the second half before making a decision.
As you’ll see from the graphic below – I used a combination of the shots on target, possession and the Attack Momentum chart to identify the fact that Vissel Kobe had picked up where they left off and, if anything, were dominating even more clearly.
As you’ll see from the blue bars in the chart, it was pretty much all Kobe for the second half.
I entered with a lay of Urawa for a quarter point at just 1.34 with about 20 minutes to go.
This was a bet and leave type of trade. This means if nothing happens, it would run down and I’d lose my full stake. If Urawa scored it would go straight to 1.01 and I’d have no trade out opportunity.
The only action that would possibly require me to make a second trade would be if Kobe scored, and that would be dependent on when (if) they scored.
Based on everything I was seeing, I was really happy and this is a trade that I love to make. All that was left was to make a cuppa and wait for the goal alert to ping…
Even when the clock hit 90, I still felt there was a chance of a goal but alas it was not to be.
Did the trade bet / lose? Yes
Was it a bad trade? No way
Would I do it again? Absolutely
This is exactly the type of trade you should be looking to make, low risk (odds on) with potentially a large upside and evidence to support your theory of a swing-back in the odds.
Yet…and here is where the managing emotion bit comes in… I was a feeling a bit flat after that.
I didn’t regret the bet at all – a little disappointed it didn’t come off but that’s the way these bets go – it only takes one every few bets to make a very good profit.
Even still, it had taken a little of the wind out of my sails and I decided to call an end to the session, despite having earmarked a couple more games that were about to start.
I told the misses we were going out for lunch and that’s what we did.
When I came back a few hours later, I was feeling refreshed and in a much better mindset – I even made it back in time to post a few late trades for some nice extra earnings on the day.
I can’t say I’d have performed so well without spotting the signs of taking a break and managing my emotion…
Win or lose, a good trade is a good trade…
Until next time,
All the best,
Jon and the Football Advisor team
Jon is the Founder and Chief Tipster at Football Advisor and Predictoloy. He started life as data analyst in the digital marketing field before find his true calling in the world of Football and Horse Racing Betting.
Jon has been sharing his professional expertise since 2009 and specialises in using objective data analysis and subjective experience of betting built up over more than a decade of professional betting.
In 2014, Jon also launched (and continues to run) the trusted Football Advisor service service which provides a variety of football and horse racing betting models and portfolios. A few years later, Jon launched the Predictology platform which is the worlds first betting system builder and analyser covering a wealth of football betting related statistics covering more than 200,000 matches.
Jon has also lent his knowledge and expertise to several of the trusted Premium Services offered by the respected Secret Betting Club, including Football Lay Profits. Racing Bet Profits and, most recently, Racing Lay Profits.