Dutching Part IV – Using A Calculator & Basic Tools To Improve Your Method
Over the last three weeks, we've looked at how the percentages work with dutching, a quick and simple method as to how to find some qualifiers and bankroll management plus staking.
Here are the previous three articles, in case you missed them and you'll definitely need to read them for this article to make sense –
DUTCHING AND HOW THE PERCENTAGES WORK
DUTCHING PART II – HOW TO FIND QUICK AND EASY PROFITS
DUTCHING PART III – STAKING AND BANKROLL MANAGEMENT
I'm going to ask a favour at the end of this article that will hopefully, allow you to see more content like this, over the next couple of weeks. Keep reading though and we'll get to that (it won't cost you anything by the way 😀 ) at the end.
Rounding things up with the Dutching, as stated above, we've covered all of the essentials but this week, I wanted to touch on how we can keep things simple, by using calculators and a bit of prep work.
Dutching, which makes up a big part of my portfolio (including trading, which is rather complicated and will be a series of articles in the future) needs to be worked out quickly, efficiently and accuretely for it to work.
I say this, because people generally, have a tendency to over-complicate things, obsess over the calculations and spend hours on researching their selections. This becomes laborious, tiresome and before you know it, all consuming.
I'll give you an example of a mate of mine. We'll call him Randy (he'll know who he is when he reads this and I'm going to get some abuse 😀 )
He runs a sucessful business in the double galzing sphere, but after he'd outsourced a lot of his labour, he was able to spend some hours a day working on his portfolio of betting.
He spent three hours a day reading up on the form, analysing the markets and back checking everything. He then spent an hour working out all of his staking, betting methods, whether that be dutching, 80/20, place only, each way, exotic bets or trading and then another 30 minutes getting his money down.
After two months, albeit making a profit, he worked out his hourly rate and it was about 3 quid an hour.
“Sod that” he thought and basically, stopped betting.
He'd managed to find a profitable angle but it was taking him far too long to execute everything.
Until, he told me the full story and we set up a portfolio for him. Now a portfolio is generally, something that involves a group of systems/selection methods, but in my world, it also involves how everything is executed.
We spent an afternoon building some excel sheets that sped up his form analysis, market analysis and then a couple of other calculators that sorted his staking out.
Within a couple of weeks, his 5 hour betting routine was cut to 90 minutes and his hourly rate went from 3 quid to 10 quid an hour. Much better and much more worth doing!
*Disclaimer – It is impossible to work out your hourly rate. This is just an average from the last couple of months for my mate, Andy…. I mean Randy 😀
So, in essence, what I'm trying to say in this article, is that “time is money” and it's worth finding the time to try and speed your analysis up, staking and betting, to really make it all worth while.
Time for that favour, I was going to ask!
Could you please leave a comment in the comments section, below and ask me some questions about anything you'd like to know about Dutching or calculating your staking, please?
That will give me some inspiration as to what to write on the topic, next week and give you guys the info you need 🙂
To round up, then, here's the calculator that I use (in excel and anyone on a Mac, it should convert to Numbers) to work out my expected losing runs. Just click on the image and you should be able to download the calculator.
Have a great week guys and I'll be back next week, with some more content that will hopefully revolve around the questions you have 🙂
Keeps me busy!
Very useful thanks.
Thanks Trevor, glad you found it beneficial.
Makes a interesting read but the main problem is finding consistent winners. If your writing on other topics please let me know. Like how does a trainer choose a race and more importantly WHY?
I’ve taken note of your comment and have a few ideas about how to present this in an article. Trainers are certainly an interesting breed but there are a few techniques that can help us think along the same lines as they do! I’ll look to write about this over the coming weeks. Thank you for your comment and we hope you continue to enjoy our content 🙂
Today 24 July at Catterick 2.40 was a very interesting race. Gold venture was the odds on favorite at 1\2 but if you study the form, it’s clear this horse was never going to win. This trainer knows exactly when his horse is going to win. First he puts the horse in a c5 race, not a c6 but a c5 and the horse wins, then instead of putting the horse in a c4 race he keeps him in a c5 race and the horse looses, then he puts him in a c4 race, doesn’t make sense after loosing in a c5 race but the horse win the c4 race, then instead of putting the horse in a c3 race, he puts him in a c6 race, again it doesn’t make sense, UNLESS if the trainer knows exactly when his horse is going to win and is manipulating the odds. I don’t want to say anything further, you all can draw your own conclusions.
Now, as far as the winner goes, it was a 25\1 shot, I know what your thinking, it was a outsider, right? Wrong! According to Lawrence Taylors speed ratings from at the races, he was the 2nd fastest horse in the race, Gold Venture being the fastest and we’ve already ruled him out as a possible winner.
Form study, learning how to ready a race, trainers, are all very important factors when it comes to picking winners.
That makes for interesting reading and you’re spot on with your analysis. This game is all about trying to find what the “average punter” will miss. Generally, mass information, that’s available on the Racing Post/Sporting Life/At The Races etc is great, but it does lead to people following the popular opinion. This, in turn, results in people betting the same horse, generally the favourite and as a consequence, not making a profit in the long run.
I will try to cover some more of complexities of finding value/trading/dutching opportunities in further articles.
Thank you for the comment, as it helps me to provide more relevant content for future articles 🙂