The Trade That Went Wrong – Proofers Curse!
Between Jon, Patrick and I (Eddie) as part of the Football Advisor team, we're always looking to deliver positive and enthusiastic content to our readers. If that's what you're looking for, then this post is NOT for you!
I published an article last week about my confidence in trading the first “proper” game in the Rugby World Cup. It wasn't that I was not interested in preceding games, but more that I was looking for games that had two competitive teams and the odds looked to be “tradeable!”
Wales V Australia was the first game that had ticked all of the boxes and I was confident in my write up, last week of predicting the mood of the game.
As it happens, I was completely wrong.
I generally get the rugby right and have called many a winner, first try, half-time winners, etc to make a few quid from my predictions. However, the first time I decided to make my predictions “public” and also display them on another Facebook page (only for Trading Prophet subscribers) I got it completely wrong!
So, what went wrong?
Australia is what went wrong!
This is what I wrote last week, ahead of the game –
“Over the last 70 years, Australia have dominated the Welsh and from 42 games, 30 have been won by the Southern Hemisphere team, 11 to Wales and 1 draw (the highest scoring draw in history!). Wales won on home turf last year and the Wallabies will have a slight edge in terms of timezones and climate.
My first entry point in the game will be to back Australia for the win and I fully expect them to look to dominate the ball, get a strong set-piece going early and score the first try. From there, I will then look to lay off the initial back bet with a hedge and lock-in a profit no matter what happens.”
So, expecting Australia to take the lead early on, I went in with a back bet with just 7 minutes to kick-off. Here's my entry point –
Now, annoyingly, I'd told Jon about last week's article and the price of 2.34 being too high. He managed to take 2.40, 30 minutes before kick-off and even traded out before the off, as late money came for the Ozzies! I'll leave him to recount his trading journey here –
I believed Eddie's reasoning was sound for the Australia game as I'd seen him call these trades frightening regularity. I put my trade in early, about 90 mins before kick off, as I wasn't sure I'd be available at the beginning of the match. I got, what proved to be a tasty 2.40 on Australia.
As it happens, I was able to check back in before kick off and saw the price had dropped significantly and I therefore decided to trade out at 2.16.
At this point I could have walked away with a nice green and left it at that.
Ultimately though, I decided to treat it as a fresh trade and use my green to reduce my liability on Wales. Re-entering just after kick off at around 2.22 I believe.
Jon
As you can see, trading can be different for people, dependent on when they enter a trade and lay it off. We'll be covering more on that in future articles.
Anyway, my predictions were completely wrong and within the first 5 minutes of play, Wales managed a drop goal to secure a 3 point lead. Shortly, after that, they then managed a converted try and went 10 points clear in their lead.
I had to get out quick, as Wales looked to be dominating the whole game and was left with a book that looked like this –
That was after 20 minutes.
Annoyingly, had I left my initial back trade open for another 40 odd minutes, I could have closed out for a £0 return. I lost my “balls” and left the game alone after Wales' fierce dominance.
At this juncture I took a different approach to Eddie here, perhaps operating with more confidence due to my pre-match trading, and actually laid Wales at 0-13 at 1.28.
I was looking for opportunities to do some mini trades to recycle the money in the market and hopefully reduce my liability to a more palatable level.
My reasoning for the Lay of Wales, was that despite the early dominance, I could not see the Australia score remaining at zero.
As it happens Australia did come back into the match and I traded out my 1.28 lay, at 1.60. Australia scored again and I could have walked away with a profit again (albeit slightly less than my profit before the start).
I decided, however, to let the trade run to half time and then decided – big mistake, lol, as Wales smashed in the points in the last few minutes of the first half
Jon
“Jon's second half”
At half time, Eddie was in tears (joke). I still felt bullish and I went back in with a Lay of Wales at 1.15. My reasoning here was that I felt that there was a response due from Australia and that they could ‘win' the second half.
Wales scored 3pts early and then for the remainder of the match it was all Australia. Around the 65th minute mark, I could, for the third time, have gotten out with an all green book.
But…
By this point, it really looked like Australia could pull off the seemingly impossible and I decided to let the trade run after reducing a bit of liability thanks to my Wales lay at half time.
With just 1 point in it and Australia in the ascendancy it felt the smart play to make.
Some would say, letting it run turned this into a Bet rather than a trade but it was, in my belief, the right thing to do with the evidence in front of me.
Ultimately, it wasn't to be, but I feel I actually traded this game pretty well considering the circumstances.
Overall, I ended up with a £60.00 loss, missed three opportunities to green up, but had Australia won the game, I'd have walked away with over £370.
Was I right to let it run or should I have taken the profit and run? Let us know in the comments below…
Jon
So, there you have it.
What have I learned from this trade?
Hindsight is a wonderful thing! I could have profited from the game, despite my initial prediction going astray, but was so emotionally involved in the game, I ceased to trade and turn my fortune around. I was so pissed off that I'd lost in the first 20 minutes, my emotions were running high. This is why I stopped where I did and stopped. That's actually a positive thing, as had I continued to trade, my mindset would have been all wrong and I could have ended up in a bigger whole!
Jon, on the other hand, proceded to trade with a positive mindset and although he lost money, he traded in the right way.
What do you think? Let us know in the comments…
