Why You Probably Shouldn’t Be Betting This Week…
It's good to be back, I think?
It's with great excitement that we welcome back horse racing, this week. Newcastle kicks things off on the all-weather and punters up and down the country will be overly keen to get their punting shoes back on.
Think about this…
Never in the history of horse racing have we had the new rules and regulations imposed on the track!
This throws up a whole array of problems and this is why we probably shouldn't be betting this week.
We only need to look across at the football in Germany for an example of the impact of ‘potential unknowns'. As part of our Bundesliga Betting and Trading Review, we identified that home wins had been under represented so far this season, but we noted a big word of caution regarding the potential impacts of no crowds…
At the time of writing there have been 28 games in the Bundesliga since the return, with just 5 home wins – an incredible 17.8%. Of course, there could be many reason for this, including the likes of Bayern, Dortmund and Leipzig being away from home two out of their three games but it does indicate us to step cautiously.
So what do we need to be considering about Horse Racing ahead of Monday?
UK Horse Racing Return: On Course Betting
Quite simply, on-course betting doesn't exist at the moment.
That's a big problem, in my opinion.
Having looked through the latest report from the BHA, there's no mention of how the SP will be determined. You can see how the SP used to work, here.
The SP was under review and looked likely to change, anyway. However, the SP will likely be determined by the big bookies and their live shows just before the off. This will very likely be a license to print money for the big guns, who already take advantage of us punters.
It's become apparent in recent years, that bookies will shorten a price on a non-runner, to increase the deduction taken from the Rule 4. It's little sly tricks like this, that will become apparent over the coming weeks, I'd bet on that!
What's to stop the big bookies, manipulating the market, increasing their over-rounds, and falsely skewing the SP to their own advantage?
UK Horse Racing Return: They've Lost Money
Bookies will be keen to start earning money, again. This could be a silver lining for us punters, as they may well start to offer some incentives, as they seek to extrapolate as much money from our wallets as possible. Be aware of these offers and make sure you read their terms and conditions. However, as with all bookies, promises of “free money,” there will indeed be a catch. My concern is that this catch will be bigger over rounds, dodgy SP's, and greater limits on what we can win, per bet.
UK Horse Racing Return: You're Not An Expert
As soon as the Lockdown was announced, my inbox was flooded with “apparent” experts in racing, from the USA, Australia, and even random other courses. It's like these tipsters woke up one morning with a sudden profound knowledge of racing they'd never even watched!
It really does beggar belief 😉
Watch out for these guys, who will no doubt start bombarding you with systems and promises of “expert” advice on a sport that has inevitably changed in the new world that we live in.
UK Horse Racing Return: The Horses Will Find It Strange
For those horses that have been running in races for several years, as they come around various track corners into the home run, they're usually met with crowds of people. Horses are naturally flight animals and seeing a mass of people will ignite their adrenaline and put them into their “flight mode”.
I'm not an expert on such matters, but having spent many years on course and talking to people “in the know” in terms of a horse's psychology, this matter of “a crowd” won't be present. This could prove problematic with horses that usually speed up in their final furlong (due to the flight response) and mean that there could be a few “lacklustre” performances from “laggers” that then speed up.
This is something I will be watching in close detail as the racing progresses over the coming weeks.
So, To My Conclusion
All in all, we're living in a world that has changed dramatically and we can't predict how the betting markets will evolve.
I am more than confident that no-one knows how they will react, including the bookies.
I won't be betting this week, certainly not for the first few days. I need to spend some time, looking at the markets, how the odds change, and more importantly how the SPs will end up. After all, the SP's are what give us the benchmark (it's more to do with BSP, in terms of accuracy, but I'll leave that for another article) as to what the true probability of a horse's chance is, of winning a race. That, my friends, is something that seems to have alluded some other vendors 😉
I'll be back on Wednesday of this week, with some further insights into what's happened over the first few days and an outline of how I'll be betting in this “new world” that we live in.
Eddie and the Football Advisor