Ultimate Betting and Trading Guide To The German Bundesliga
German Bundesliga: Betting and Trading Analysis
We hope you enjoyed Ultimate Betting and Trading Guide to the K League in South Korea it was great to have some Football back and I'm pleased to say it was a profitable opening weekend.
The only real mistake I made was trying to trade the Both Teams To Score market which had almost zero in-play liquidity, in the end I let it run as a bet but it wasn't to be. Still £183 profit for the weekend is not to be sniffed at.
Today we're back with our next special edition, with the what we hope is the Ultimate Betting and Trading Guide to the Bundesliga.
The Bundesliga called a halt after round 25, with the last game played on the 9 March. At the time Bayern Munich were leading the table, once again. With 9 games to go, Dortmund are 2nd, 4 points behind, while RB Leipzig are a point further back in third.
The confirmed re-start date for the Bundesliga is this Saturday, 16th May, with the big game of the round being the Reveirderby between Dortmund and Schalke. There will likely be two Englishman on show that day with Dortmund's Sancho, while Everton's Jonjoe Kenny is on loan at Schalke.
Bayern are away at a potentially tricky Hertha Berlin. While, RB Leipzig get back underway at home against Freiburg and will be expecting a home win, and also hoping for points dropped in Dortmund and Berlin.
Bundesliga Format
The Bundesliga, or “Federal League”, came into existence in 1963 and there have been 56 different teams who have competed in the competition. Also known as die Fußball-Bundesliga and simple 1. Bundesliga, has been won by Bayern Munich a whopping 28 times (50%) and they have won the league for the last seven seasons. The first edition, back in '63, was won by FC Koln, while Borussia Dortmund, Hamburg (now in Bundesliga 2), Werder Bremen, Borussia Mönchengladbach and VfB Stuttgart (also in Bundesliga 2) have also figured prominently in the honours list
With the reunification of Germany in 1990, East German sides were seeded into various levels of the German football league pyramid with Dynamo Dresden (currently bottom of Bundesliga 2), and Hansa Rostock seeded into the top division at that time.
There are 18 teams contesting a traditional home and away season, with a 34 games each in total. Naturally the top placed side are Champions, while the next three teams join the Champions with direct qualification for the Champions League group stage. The fifth placed side goes directly into the Europa League group stage, while the sixth placed side enters the third-round qualifying tie in the same competition.
The bottom two sides, currently Werder Bremen and Paderborn, are automatically relegated to Bundesliga 2, while the the third ‘worst' side, finishing 16th, play the third best side in Bundesliga in a two legged play-off.
Wolfsburg famously survived the relegation play-offs two seasons in row in 2016/17 and 2017/18 before learning form their mistakes and finishing a credible 6th place last season.
The Bundesliga 2 also 18 teams and works on the same format as Bundesliga 1, with two automatic promotion places plus the earlier mentioned relegation / promotion play off. It is the same at the bottom of the table, with two automatically relegated plus a relegation / promotion playoff against a side from the 3rd Division (3.Liga)
Before the break in play, Armenia Bielefield were leading the table with 51 points, with Stuttgart, who lost in the relegation play-off last season, six points back in second place. Hamburg are currently occupying third-place, one point behind Stuttgart and with a three point cushion from 4th placed Heidenheim.
How To Profit From the Bundesilga
It’s time to turn out attention to the nuts and bolts of the Bundesliga, and most importantly how we can profit from the key Bundesliga Betting Trends and Statistics.
– Bundesliga – Home Win Percentage
Globally the average home win percentage is around 45% and the Bundesliga is pretty much on the money for that over the last 5 years with an average of 45.38%
The last two seasons have been 45.1% and 45.4% respectively, while the current season is 43.3%. Under normal circumstances, you'd expect a slight weighting towards the home sides during the final 9 rounds of the season, but the unknown factor here is the empty stadiums.
| Season | Home Win % | Baseline |
| 2015 | 44.10% | 45% |
| 2016 | 49.00% | 45% |
| 2017 | 45.40% | 45% |
| 2018 | 45.10% | 45% |
| 2019 | 43.30% | 45% |
Bundesliga 2 – Home Win %
Things are a little different one league down, with the Bundesliga 2 consistently delivering around a 41% home win rate, with the exception of 2016. It is potentially akin to something like the English Championship, where the league is very competitive and anyone can be anyone on their day.
| Season | Home Win % | Baseline |
| 2015 | 41.50% | 45% |
| 2016 | 44.80% | 45% |
| 2017 | 41.50% | 45% |
| 2018 | 41.80% | 45% |
| 2019 | 41.40% | 45% |
– Bundesliga – Draw Frequency Percentage
Again the Bundesliga is staying pretty close to the global mean average for draws, at a 5 season average of 24.06%
Percentage of games which result in a Draw in the Bundesliga
| Season | Draw % | Baseline |
| 2015 | 23.20% | 25% |
| 2016 | 24.20% | 25% |
| 2017 | 27.10% | 25% |
| 2018 | 23.90% | 25% |
| 2019 | 21.90% | 25% |
Percentage of games which result in a Draw in the Bundesliga 2
| Season | Draw % | Baseline |
| 2015 | 28.10% | 25% |
| 2016 | 28.80% | 25% |
| 2017 | 29.10% | 25% |
| 2018 | 28.80% | 25% |
| 2019 | 32.00% | 25% |
It is a different picture however in the Bundesliga 2, with the draw percentage much higher than the expected average, up about 4% on the five season mean.
In fact 2019 is on course to set a new high, with the current draw percentage at 32%.
Although this does support the lower home win average that we saw earlier, it is probably wise to tread cautiously due to both the unknown factor of the closed stadiums, plus the potential for a correction in the draw percentage back to the longer term average.
– Bundesliga – Half Time 0-0
As we discovered las time, the global average we’d expect is a little under a third (31%) of games to be 0-0 at half time, but the Bundesliga tracks way below this, and is trending even further down.
One possible angle here is to wait until around 30 minutes into any game and if the 0-0 score for half time is odds on, consider laying it. If it is odds on, you'll need less than a 50% strike rate to make a profit, so quite achievable, particularly if you do some additional analysis to support your moves.
Percentage of games reaching half time with a 0-0 score line in the Bundesliga
| Season | Half Time 0-0 % | Baseline |
| 2015 | 27.80% | 31% |
| 2016 | 28.10% | 31% |
| 2017 | 24.20% | 31% |
| 2018 | 25.80% | 31% |
| 2019 | 22.80% | 31% |
Percentage of games reaching half time with a 0-0 score line in the Bundesliga 2
Back in the 2015/16 and 2016/17, goals in the first half we pretty hard to come by, with both registering 35%+ strike rates on the half time 0-0. Recent trends have been much closer to expected mean.
This ‘may' be down to the fact that we've seen some pretty big sides end up here in recent years, with the likes of VFB Stuttgart and Hamburg, potentially improving the openness and attacking play.
| Season | Half Time 0-0 % | Baseline |
| 2015 | 36.60% | 31% |
| 2016 | 35.00% | 31% |
| 2017 | 30.70% | 31% |
| 2018 | 31.40% | 31% |
| 2019 | 32.00% | 31% |
– Bundesliga – Full Time 0-0
There has been a decline in games finishing nil nil in the Bundesliga over the last couple of seasons. with it currently sitting at only 4% during the 2019/20 season.
Percentage of games that finished with a 0-0 score line in the Bundesliga
| Season | Full Time 0-0 % | Baseline |
| 2015 | 7.80% | 6% |
| 2016 | 6.20% | 6% |
| 2017 | 6.90% | 6% |
| 2018 | 5.60% | 6% |
| 2019 | 4.00% | 6% |
Percentage of games that finished with a 0-0 score line in the Bundesliga 2
The trends for full time nil nil in the Bundesliga 2 are, perhaps, what we would expect with the general high rate of draws in the league. Although, the current season before play was stopped, was sitting at 6.20%, a fraction above the expected mean.
Nothing definitive we can take away from this from a betting or trading perspective, but useful to know all the same.
| Season | Full Time 0-0 % | Baseline |
| 2015 | 7.50% | 6% |
| 2016 | 8.20% | 6% |
| 2017 | 6.50% | 6% |
| 2018 | 7.20% | 6% |
| 2019 | 6.20% | 6% |
– Bundesliga – Goal Betting
It has been widely known for some time now that the Bundesliga offers some of the best fan experiences in the world. Low ticket prices, quality teams, and plenty of goals and the next chart just supports that ideal even further
We're usually looking at around three quarters of games finishing with at least two goals, but the Bundesliga has never come close to that in the last five years, with it's lowest return being 78%.
In fact the trend is only pointing upwards with year on year increases and it currently sits at a massive 87.5% for the 2019/20 season.
Percentage of games that finished with over 1.5 goals in the Bundesliga
| Season | Over 1.5 Goals % | Baseline |
| 2015 | 77.50% | 75% |
| 2016 | 78.40% | 75% |
| 2017 | 78.80% | 75% |
| 2018 | 84.60% | 75% |
| 2019 | 87.50% | 75% |
Percentage of games that finished with over 1.5 goals in the Bundesliga 2
| Season | Over 1.5 Goals % | Baseline |
| 2015 | 73.50% | 75% |
| 2016 | 73.80% | 75% |
| 2017 | 77.50% | 75% |
| 2018 | 79.10% | 75% |
| 2019 | 76.90% | 75% |
Interestingly, despite the what we saw of the nil nil rates for the Bundesliga 2, it is actually a similar story here. It would certainly suggest that games may start cautious but if one team can find the break-through, the games open up significantly – I'd say a useful statistic for traders if nothing else..
– Bundesliga – Over 2.5 Goals
It was a pretty reasonable expectation to see the Over 2.5 goals chart like this after what we saw in the previous section.
Over 2.5 goals have been seen in over 60% of games for the last two seasons, which is an incredible statistic. In fact, before the break it was at 67% for the 2019/20 season.
Trading Stats:
Over the last 215 games in the Bundesliga, which covers the final month of the 2018/19 season and all of the 2019/20 season to date, there were 50 games which were 0-0 at half time.
Of those 50 games, 10 of them went on to finish nil nil, meaning 80% of those game went on to have at least one goal.
Interestingly, 20% of those games also went on to have 3 or more goals.
Percentage of games that finished with over 2.5 goals in the Bundesliga 2
| Season | Over 2.5 Goals % | Baseline |
| 2015 | 47.10% | 51% |
| 2016 | 45.80% | 51% |
| 2017 | 52.00% | 51% |
| 2018 | 57.20% | 51% |
| 2019 | 52.00% | 51% |
Over 2.5 goals is more along the expected means, although it has been above the global average for the last three seasons.
One statistic maybe worth noting is that when the away team has scored in the Bundesliga over the last 215 games, the match has finished in a draw or home win 45.5% of the time.
– Bundesliga – Both Teams To Score
Clean sheets seem to be at a premium in both the top two divisions with the both teams to score percentages well above the mean in both.
We'd normally expect both teams to score happening around 50-52% of the time, but the Bundesliga has never been close to that in the last five seasons. In fact they have only been increasing, with it touching 59% over the last two years. Great for the traders I'd expect!
Percentage of games with both teams scoring in the Bundesliga
| Season | BTTS – Yes % | Baseline |
| 2015 | 54.60% | 51% |
| 2016 | 54.90% | 51% |
| 2017 | 54.90% | 51% |
| 2018 | 59.50% | 51% |
| 2019 | 59.40% | 51% |
Percentage of games with both teams scoring in the Bundesliga 2
| Season | BTTS – Yes % | Baseline |
| 2015 | 50.30% | 51% |
| 2016 | 51.60% | 51% |
| 2017 | 58.50% | 51% |
| 2018 | 58.80% | 51% |
| 2019 | 57.30% | 51% |
It's a similar picture in the Bundesliga 2 and I think the stats speak for themselves in terms of the potential opportunities this creates.
Bundesliga Betting Summary
- Both Teams To Score is high in both Bundesliga 1 and Bundesliga 2
- If the game is 0-0 after 30 mins, consider laying the half time 0-0, particularly if odds on
- If the game is 0-0 at half time, you have an 80% chance of a goal in the second half
- If the away team scores first in Bundesliga 2, consider laying them
- Home win percentages in Bundesliga 2 are quite low, while the draw chance is high
- Potentially a chance for home wins to be over represented in the Bundesliga, but consider whether empty stadiums will impact on this
As things stand, we're likely to get Hungary and the Czech Republic back next week, and potentially a couple more leagues each week for the next few weeks. We'd like to continue doing these guides but they naturally take a bit of time to put together, so be sure to let us know in the comments, if you have any preference on which leagues you would like us to do next.
Jon is the Founder and Chief Tipster at Football Advisor and Predictoloy. He started life as data analyst in the digital marketing field before find his true calling in the world of Football and Horse Racing Betting.
Jon has been sharing his professional expertise since 2009 and specialises in using objective data analysis and subjective experience of betting built up over more than a decade of professional betting.
In 2014, Jon also launched (and continues to run) the trusted Football Advisor service service which provides a variety of football and horse racing betting models and portfolios. A few years later, Jon launched the Predictology platform which is the worlds first betting system builder and analyser covering a wealth of football betting related statistics covering more than 200,000 matches.
Jon has also lent his knowledge and expertise to several of the trusted Premium Services offered by the respected Secret Betting Club, including Football Lay Profits. Racing Bet Profits and, most recently, Racing Lay Profits.
