BLOG

german-bundesliga-returns

Ultimate Betting and Trading Guide To The German Bundesliga

german-bundesliga

German Bundesliga: Betting and Trading Analysis

 

We hope you enjoyed Ultimate Betting and Trading Guide to the K League in South Korea it was great to have some Football back and I'm pleased to say it was a profitable opening weekend.

The only real mistake I made was trying to trade the Both Teams To Score market which had almost zero in-play liquidity, in the end I let it run as a bet but it wasn't to be. Still £183 profit for the weekend is not to be sniffed at.

Today we're back with our next special edition, with the what we hope is the Ultimate Betting and Trading Guide to the Bundesliga.

 

The Bundesliga called a halt after round 25, with the last game played on the 9 March. At the time Bayern Munich were leading the table, once again. With 9 games to go, Dortmund are 2nd, 4 points behind, while RB Leipzig are a point further back in third.

The confirmed re-start date for the  Bundesliga is this Saturday, 16th May, with the big game of the round being the Reveirderby between Dortmund and Schalke. There will likely be two Englishman on show that day with Dortmund's Sancho, while Everton's Jonjoe Kenny is on loan at Schalke.

Bayern are away at a potentially tricky Hertha Berlin. While, RB Leipzig get back underway at home against Freiburg and will be expecting a home win, and also hoping for points dropped in Dortmund and Berlin.

 


Bundesliga Format

 

The Bundesliga, or “Federal League”, came into existence in 1963 and there have been 56 different teams who have competed in the competition. Also known as die Fußball-Bundesliga and simple 1. Bundesliga, has been won by Bayern Munich a whopping 28 times (50%) and they have won the league for the last seven seasons. The first edition, back in '63, was won by FC Koln, while Borussia Dortmund, Hamburg (now in Bundesliga 2), Werder Bremen, Borussia Mönchengladbach and VfB Stuttgart (also in Bundesliga 2) have also figured prominently in the honours list

With the reunification of Germany in 1990, East German sides were seeded into various levels of the German football league pyramid with Dynamo Dresden (currently bottom of Bundesliga 2), and Hansa Rostock seeded into the top division at that time.

There are 18 teams contesting a traditional home and away season, with a 34 games each in total. Naturally the top placed side are Champions, while the next three teams join the Champions with direct qualification for the Champions League group stage. The fifth placed side goes directly into the Europa League group stage, while the sixth placed side enters the third-round qualifying tie in the same competition.

The bottom two sides, currently Werder Bremen and Paderborn, are automatically relegated to Bundesliga 2, while the the third ‘worst' side, finishing 16th, play the third best side in Bundesliga in a two legged play-off.

Wolfsburg famously survived the relegation play-offs two seasons in row in 2016/17 and 2017/18 before learning form their mistakes and finishing a credible 6th place last season.

 


The Bundesliga 2 also 18 teams and works on the same format as Bundesliga 1, with two automatic promotion places plus the earlier mentioned relegation / promotion play off. It is the same at the bottom of the table, with two automatically relegated plus a relegation / promotion playoff against a side from the 3rd Division (3.Liga)

 

Before the break in play, Armenia Bielefield were leading the table with 51 points, with Stuttgart, who lost in the relegation play-off last season, six points back in second place. Hamburg are currently occupying third-place, one point behind Stuttgart and with a three point cushion from 4th placed Heidenheim.

 

 


How To Profit From the Bundesilga

 

It’s time to turn out attention to the nuts and bolts of the Bundesliga, and most importantly how we can profit from the key Bundesliga Betting Trends and Statistics.

 

 – Bundesliga – Home Win Percentage

 

Globally the average home win percentage is around 45% and the Bundesliga is pretty much on the money for that over the last 5 years with an average of 45.38%

The last two seasons have been 45.1% and 45.4% respectively, while the current season is 43.3%. Under normal circumstances, you'd expect a slight weighting towards the home sides during the final 9 rounds of the season, but the unknown factor here is the empty stadiums.

 

Season Home Win % Baseline
2015 44.10% 45%
2016 49.00% 45%
2017 45.40% 45%
2018 45.10% 45%
2019 43.30% 45%

 

Bundesliga 2 – Home Win %

Things are a little different one league down, with the Bundesliga 2 consistently delivering around a 41% home win rate, with the exception of 2016. It is potentially akin to something like the English Championship, where the league is very competitive and anyone can be anyone on their day.

Season Home Win % Baseline
2015 41.50% 45%
2016 44.80% 45%
2017 41.50% 45%
2018 41.80% 45%
2019 41.40% 45%

 


– Bundesliga – Draw Frequency Percentage

Again the Bundesliga is staying pretty close to the global mean average for draws, at a 5 season average of 24.06%

Percentage of games which result in a Draw in the Bundesliga

Season Draw % Baseline
2015 23.20% 25%
2016 24.20% 25%
2017 27.10% 25%
2018 23.90% 25%
2019 21.90% 25%

Percentage of games which result in a Draw in the Bundesliga 2

Season Draw % Baseline
2015 28.10% 25%
2016 28.80% 25%
2017 29.10% 25%
2018 28.80% 25%
2019 32.00% 25%

 

It is a different picture however in the Bundesliga 2, with the draw percentage much higher than the expected average, up about 4% on the five season mean.

In fact 2019 is on course to set a new high, with the current draw percentage at 32%.

Although this does support the lower home win average that we saw earlier, it is probably wise to tread cautiously due to both the unknown factor of the closed stadiums, plus the potential for a correction in the draw percentage back to the longer term average.

 


 – Bundesliga – Half Time 0-0

As we discovered las time, the global average we’d expect is a little under a third (31%) of games to be 0-0 at half time, but the Bundesliga tracks way below this, and is trending even further down.

One possible angle here is to wait until around 30 minutes into any game and if the 0-0 score for half time is odds on, consider laying it. If it is odds on, you'll need less than a 50% strike rate to make a profit, so quite achievable, particularly if you do some additional analysis to support your moves.

Percentage of games reaching half time with a 0-0 score line in the Bundesliga

Season Half Time 0-0 % Baseline
2015 27.80% 31%
2016 28.10% 31%
2017 24.20% 31%
2018 25.80% 31%
2019 22.80% 31%

 

 

Percentage of games reaching half time with a 0-0 score line in the Bundesliga 2

Back in the 2015/16 and 2016/17, goals in the first half we pretty hard to come by, with both registering 35%+ strike rates on the half time 0-0. Recent trends have been much closer to expected mean.

This ‘may' be down to the fact that we've seen some pretty big sides end up here in recent years, with the likes of VFB Stuttgart and Hamburg, potentially improving the openness and attacking play.

Season Half Time 0-0 % Baseline
2015 36.60% 31%
2016 35.00% 31%
2017 30.70% 31%
2018 31.40% 31%
2019 32.00% 31%

 

 


– Bundesliga – Full Time 0-0

There has been a decline in games finishing nil nil in the Bundesliga over the last couple of seasons. with it currently sitting at only 4% during the 2019/20 season.

 

Percentage of games that finished with a 0-0 score line in the Bundesliga

Season Full Time 0-0 % Baseline
2015 7.80% 6%
2016 6.20% 6%
2017 6.90% 6%
2018 5.60% 6%
2019 4.00% 6%

 

Percentage of games that finished with a 0-0 score line in the Bundesliga 2

The trends for full time nil nil in the Bundesliga 2 are, perhaps, what we would expect with the general high rate of draws in the league. Although, the current season before play was stopped, was sitting at 6.20%, a fraction above the expected mean.

Nothing definitive we can take away from this from a betting or trading perspective, but useful to know all the same.

Season Full Time 0-0 % Baseline
2015 7.50% 6%
2016 8.20% 6%
2017 6.50% 6%
2018 7.20% 6%
2019 6.20% 6%

 


– Bundesliga – Goal Betting

It has been widely known for some time now that the Bundesliga offers some of the best fan experiences in the world. Low ticket prices, quality teams, and plenty of goals and the next chart just supports that ideal even further

We're usually looking at around three quarters of games finishing with at least two goals, but the Bundesliga has never come close to that in the last five years, with it's lowest return being 78%.

In fact the trend is only pointing upwards with year on year increases and it currently sits at a massive 87.5% for the 2019/20 season.

 

Percentage of games that finished with over 1.5 goals in the Bundesliga

Season Over 1.5 Goals % Baseline
2015 77.50% 75%
2016 78.40% 75%
2017 78.80% 75%
2018 84.60% 75%
2019 87.50% 75%

 

Percentage of games that finished with over 1.5 goals in the Bundesliga 2

Season Over 1.5 Goals % Baseline
2015 73.50% 75%
2016 73.80% 75%
2017 77.50% 75%
2018 79.10% 75%
2019 76.90% 75%

Interestingly, despite the what we saw of the nil nil rates for the Bundesliga 2, it is actually a similar story here. It would certainly suggest that games may start cautious but if one team can find the break-through, the games open up significantly – I'd say a useful statistic for traders if nothing else..

 


– Bundesliga – Over 2.5 Goals

It was a pretty reasonable expectation to see the Over 2.5 goals chart like this after what we saw in the previous section.

Over 2.5 goals have been seen in over 60% of games for the last two seasons, which is an incredible statistic. In fact, before the break it was at 67% for the 2019/20 season.

 


 

Trading Stats:

Over the last 215 games in the Bundesliga, which covers the final month of the 2018/19 season and all of the 2019/20 season to date, there were 50 games which were 0-0 at half time.

Of those 50 games, 10 of them went on to finish nil nil, meaning 80% of those game went on to have at least one goal.

Interestingly, 20% of those games also went on to have 3 or more goals.

 


 

Percentage of games that finished with over 2.5 goals in the Bundesliga 2

Season Over 2.5 Goals % Baseline
2015 47.10% 51%
2016 45.80% 51%
2017 52.00% 51%
2018 57.20% 51%
2019 52.00% 51%

 

Over 2.5 goals is more along the expected means, although it has been above the global average for the last three seasons.

One statistic maybe worth noting is that when the away team has scored in the Bundesliga over the last 215 games, the match has finished in a draw or home win 45.5% of the time.

 

 


– Bundesliga – Both Teams To Score

Clean sheets seem to be at a premium in both the top two divisions with the both teams to score percentages well above the mean in both.

 

We'd normally expect both teams to score happening around 50-52% of the time, but the Bundesliga has never been close to that in the last five seasons. In fact they have only been increasing, with it touching 59% over the last two years. Great for the traders I'd expect!

Percentage of games with both teams scoring in the Bundesliga

Season BTTS – Yes % Baseline
2015 54.60% 51%
2016 54.90% 51%
2017 54.90% 51%
2018 59.50% 51%
2019 59.40% 51%

 

Percentage of games with both teams scoring in the Bundesliga 2

Season BTTS – Yes % Baseline
2015 50.30% 51%
2016 51.60% 51%
2017 58.50% 51%
2018 58.80% 51%
2019 57.30% 51%

It's a similar picture in the Bundesliga 2 and I think the stats speak for themselves in terms of the potential opportunities this creates.

 


Bundesliga Betting Summary

 

  • Both Teams To Score is high in both Bundesliga 1 and Bundesliga 2
  • If the game is 0-0 after 30 mins, consider laying the half time 0-0, particularly if odds on
  • If the game is 0-0 at half time, you have an 80% chance of a goal in the second half
  • If the away team scores first in Bundesliga 2, consider laying them
  • Home win percentages in Bundesliga 2 are quite low, while the draw chance is high
  • Potentially a chance for home wins to be over represented in the Bundesliga, but consider whether empty stadiums will impact on this

 

And, if you are looking for more trading advice, insights and trading strategies, you can learn more here.

 

As things stand, we're likely to get Hungary and the Czech Republic back next week, and potentially a couple more leagues each week for the next few weeks. We'd like to continue doing these guides but they naturally take a bit of time to put together, so be sure to let us know in the comments, if you have any preference on which leagues you would like us to do next.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

TAGS > , , , , , , , , , , ,

  • Scott Young

    Another great guide ! Thanks Jon – Much appreciated

    Reply
  • TAMÁS MÁRKUS

    Great guide with some invaluable tips and hints, thanks a lot! I love those summaries at the end, they provide some important focus points. Indeed would like to see more league insights!

    Reply
  • Alex

    Fantastic and unselfish assistance.Thank you very much Jon.

    Reply
  • Bob

    Nice work Jon, thanks

    Reply
  • geoffrey mcdermott

    Another great information package, now that some footy at least, good stats for trading in the Bundesliga..

    Reply

Leave a Reply

Social Media Auto Publish Powered By : XYZScripts.com
%d bloggers like this: