Can The Football Advisor Team Achieve The “Impossible”? | Football Advisor
This is the last in our series exploring the origins, story and fiction behind the “Maria Staking Plan“. If you missed it, here are the links to Part 1 and Part 2
Your mission Ethan, should you choose to accept it…
The Person Who Says It Cannot Be Done, Should Not Interrupt The Person Doing It…
Ok, that's enough of the Mission Impossible quotes. Boy I do love those movies though.
And, besides, as we said in Part 2, we do not believe the Maria Staking Plan is impossible – but we do believe it is also very hard to achieve.
That said, we've never been one to shirk a challenge and we have spent the last few months combing through ALL of our football lay betting systems, and using our sister site Predictology to test, model and analyse to see whether we could come up with the frame work to give ourselves the very best chance of achieving the football equivalent of the Maria Staking Plan.
Who knows, maybe we'll go down in history for what happens over the next year. Maybe YOU will too.
Maria Staking Plan – Preparation
We have access to a number of very successful and profitable football lay betting strategies already (Football Advisor Lays is a testament to this)
So initially it was a case of identifying those that fit the initial criteria of “Consistency” and “Strike Rate” and we were able to settle on 7 strategies that fit the bill.
We selected seven strategies that we felt fit the criteria to suit the Maria Staking Plan.
They have high strike rates – above 81% and ideally above 83% – which all of these do. (Note: These are the de-duped list of results, so selections are not counted twice if they come up in more than one model).
In step 2, we quickly wanted to visualise the consistency of the models and make sure we didn't have too many wild swings in profit and loss.
As you can see from the below, we recovered quickly from a slow start and despite a couple of minor dips, which is to be expected, it was a steady trend line to the right.
At this stage, we were confident that we have baseline approach that would work with this strategy.
Maria Staking Plan – Confidence Testing
To increase our confidence levels we next looked at using the excellent tools at The Staking Machine
We'll talk more about The Staking Machine another day as it is truly an excellent bit of kit. But for now there were two areas we wanted to focus on.
(1). We took our 3,483 selections and uploaded them into The Staking Machine (TSM). This then allowed us to quickly run all 3.5k selections through the Maria Staking Plan parameters
Example 1 – Level Stakes
Example 2 – Maria Staking Plan
As you can quickly see from the above, our approach passed the Maria Staking Plan test, with very positive results.
It also almost double our profit returns, taking a £100 bank up to £951.10.
We then took those selections and used a cool feature which then allows you to double the selections and randomise them so we can look at a bigger sample and increase the variance.
This is how it looked when doubling the selections
And then if we randomised those selections to remove any chance of luck, and we'd be looking at these results
A slight drop in profits during the randomisation, which I'd expect to see, but still phenomenal results.
Remember, Maria started with a bank of £3,000 and reached £100,000. So if you factor that down, a £300 bank would target £10,000 and a £100 bank would be looking for something in the region of £3,333 return.
So a return of £8,152.59 from a £100 bank is almost three times as much as our target.
There is now one final test we want to run before giving this the green light and that is the Monte Carlo simulation.
The Monte Carlo simulation allows you to shuffle your bet data and see what the results are after each shuffle
For each shuffle, the cumulative total, return on investment, and whether the bata data would have caused the betting bank to bankrupt
This allows to test 1000's of scenarios using our betting data to determine the chance of us failing or the betting bank being bankrupted.
We ran our data through the simulation 50,000 times. This what would have happened if we had randomised our approach over the same bets 50,000 times.
And we passed these 50,000 simulations with flying colours with a projected zero percent chance of bankruptcy.
The data and modelling is telling us we have the right approach and a strong chance of success under these metrics.
But there are two tweaks we are going to make to the approach to increase our chances and reduce our risk.
(1) We are going to deviate from Maria's £3,000 bank. For a first attempt we feel this is as unnecessary risk.
We'd much prefer a starting bank of £300 and look to achieve £10,000. If we are successful, then there is nothing to stop us taking £3,000 from our profits and re-starting the challenging, with £7,000 banked in profit at that stage.
(2) We are going to back our selections to level stakes alongside the challenge. We'll allocate a second £300 bank and allocate a 100 points. Meaning we can lay at £3 a selection.
We know that this approach is profitable on its own and should provide a more steady profit line alongside the more aggressive Maria Staking approach.
Maria Staking Plan – Want To Get Involved?
If you would like to get involved with our Maria Staking Plan challenge and receive these profitable selections as well, then you can do so here.
We are going to limit places to 50 people so as to avoid the pricing issues that Maria faced on the public facing forum later on in the challenge (as discussed in part 1)
What you will get
- First two months for the price of one
- All selections used in this challenge
- Follow either to level stakes and / or the Maria Staking Plan
- Bet manually or use BF Bot Manager – we'll provide the strategy files and auto tip loading to do this
- The chance to be famous – if we can deliver the Maria Staking Plan successfully I'm sure it will cause quite a stir
- Strong likelihood of profit even if only following the selections to level stakes
Let's make history together – get on the list here
Jon is the Founder and Chief Tipster at Football Advisor and Predictoloy. He started life as data analyst in the digital marketing field before find his true calling in the world of Football and Horse Racing Betting.
Jon has been sharing his professional expertise since 2009 and specialises in using objective data analysis and subjective experience of betting built up over more than a decade of professional betting.
In 2014, Jon also launched (and continues to run) the trusted Football Advisor service service which provides a variety of football and horse racing betting models and portfolios. A few years later, Jon launched the Predictology platform which is the worlds first betting system builder and analyser covering a wealth of football betting related statistics covering more than 200,000 matches.
Jon has also lent his knowledge and expertise to several of the trusted Premium Services offered by the respected Secret Betting Club, including Football Lay Profits. Racing Bet Profits and, most recently, Racing Lay Profits.
Thank you for offering me this opportunity.
I wish you every success in the venture.
Unfortunately the monthly fee is too high for me as I am retired and my income is limited.
I will be interested to see how successful the venture is.