Ante Post Betting – English Premier League – Part 1
Premier League Betting – Team Analysis
Welcome to Part 1 of our Premier League Betting Analysis for each team. Today, and over the next few days, we'll highight the major changes, transfers and insights for each of the 20 premier league sides, along with our best bet per team on the season-long markets.
Exciting times await the Emirates faithful as a managerial change breathes new life into the Gunners’ title ambitions. Signings including Stephan Lichtsteiner and Sokratis Papastathopoulos have re-bolstered a shaky defence, with Petr Cech being replaced (for now) by ex-Bayer Leverkusen goalkeeper Bernd Leno.
Unai Emery seems keen on partnering his two main goal threats – Alexandre Lacazette and Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang – in a system catered for two strikers which Wenger seemed reluctant to deploy. A spine is growing at the North London club, with a year of gelling needed until Arsenal can be considered true title contenders.
Title odds: 20/1
Whether Arsenal can amount a serious title challenge is unclear; a top four finish is more obtainable for the North Londoners with good value at 2/1. The lack of Champions League football hasn’t improved their title challenges in the previous few years, however, new management allows a fresh attack on the Premier League summit.
Left back Diego Rico is the only notable signing for Eddie Howe’s side, as he looks to – once again – defy the odds and remain a threat in the Premier League. Make no mistake, Rico is a real coup of a signing, with Borussia Dortmund also showing interest in the Leganes defender.
Fluid football, tight interplay and utilising pockets of space are where Bournemouth show their best side; defensively, however, they will continue to ship goals. Six clean sheets from the previous campaign will have to be improved on if they are to truly push on into mid-table obscurity. With the promoted sides expected to flourish, a side like Bournemouth could easily find themselves slipping into trouble around Christmas.
To finish in the top half: 5/2
5/2 is hard to ignore in a league that is known for a bunched bottom half. Bournemouth need to take points against the newly promoted sides, especially at home. If they avoid slipping into a relegation scrap in the last few weeks of the league, a stride into the top half isn’t out of their reach with a few quick wins.
– Brighton and Hove Albion
Buoyed by the goalscoring threat of Glenn Murray last campaign, Brighton survived in style finishing fifteenth, seven points clear of the drop. Chris Hughton has done little wrong since taking the helm at the AMEX Stadium; his spending this summer has reinforced the Seagulls’ ambitions to kick on in the 2018-19 season.
All eyes will be on former AZ Alkmaar striker Alireza Jahanbakhsh. The Iranian winger impressed last season in the Eredivisie, as well as solid performances for a dogged Iran side at the World Cup. Translating his 21 Eredivisie goals into Premier League strikes will be the task given to the 24-year-old next season, having signed for a club-record fee. With Izquierdo and Gross’ attacking influence still fundamental to Brighton’s style of play, their options going forward are reasons to be cheerful on the South coast.
To finish in the top half: 7/1
Great value at 7/1 for the ‘Seagulls’ to finish in the top half. Hughton’s shrewd signings should amount to goals: something that was lack through parts of last season. They have a knack of performing at the AMEX and should be able to avoid the dreaded “SSS” (second season syndrome).
Burnley defined the position of ‘best of the rest’ last season. Finishing seventh, nine points shy of Arsenal and five points clear of Everton, Sean Dyche’s side optimised the art of winning ugly – often 1-0. Scoring under a goal a game will be a concern for Dyche coming into the new campaign, however, their defensive stubbornness has allowed them to stay out of any real trouble in the Premier League.
An early start to the 2018-19 campaign has, perhaps, detracted from their lack of movement in the transfer market. A 1-1 away draw to Aberdeen saw Dyche field a side void from any real changes to last season. Wood, Barnes and Vokes will continue to lead the Burnley line, with Mee and Tarkowski providing stubbornness at the back.
To be relegated: 4/1
In a season that looks like it could go either way, the relegation market is worth a second look. Sixth favourite with the bookies to face the drop, Dyche’s/Burnley’s reluctance to spend, coupled with European football, may well lead to harsh consequences.
– Cardiff City
Premier League new-boys Cardiff City have already made some smart moves in the transfer market; whether these signings will be ‘Premier League’ ready is the biggest concern. Take, for example, Bobby Reid. The striker scored 19 league goals for Bristol City last year, and with a reported £10 million price tag the 25-year-old will be expected to hit the ground running in the top tier.
Neil Warnock has developed a side that want to play for him. Love him or hate him, Warnock has instilled an unbreakable group mentality within the Bluebirds, an invaluable asset in the Premier League.
Kenneth Zohore is likely to continue to prove to be one of Cardiff’s most valuable players. Not an out-and-out goalscorer, however, his movement and link-up play has allowed Cardiff to succeed in front of goals from all over the pitch.
To be relegated: 8/11
It’s unlikely we will see all three promoted sides stay up, again, this season. This being said, Cardiff look prime candidates to be the first to return to the Championship. Warnock is likely to come unstuck in the top tier, as his side ship too many goals to stay afloat.
What is ‘Best Bets'
After the success of our World Cup ‘Best Bets' program, we are continuing on the model for full 2018/19 season. ‘Best Bets' is a member only service, providing:
- Two emails per week
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- 1-2 of our best bets for each set of upcoming matches
- Our best ‘value' bet that we have identified, priced at 3/1 or higher
- In-depth analysis and previews of one or two of the biggest matches taking place
- Key statistical trends for some of the major upcoming matches
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Freelance sports writer, sports data analyst and content creator; Lewis has provided some of the biggest names in the betting industry with written content and betting tips over the past seven years. Specialising in football, boxing, and darts, his eye for detail – as well as value – has seen him yield a significant profit as BetVictor's darts tipster. Lewis co-authored the Football Advisor World Cup Stats Betting Pack