Ante Post Betting – English Premier League – Part 3
Premier League Betting – Team Analysis
Welcome to Part 3 of our Premier League Betting Analysis for each team. Today, and over the next few days, we'll highlight the major changes, transfers and insights for each of the 20 premier league sides, along with our best bet per team on the season-long markets.
– Leicester City
Speculation regarding a possible move for Harry Maguire has dominated Leicester’s summer. The England centre back performed well at the World Cup and has been pinpointed by Jose Mourinho for a place at Old Trafford. Whether the reported £65 million asking price will be enough to turn Leicester’s head is yet to be seen; losing Riyad Mahrez already this summer has dented the Foxes’ ambitions.
Jonny Evans has signed from West Brom, as well as Ricardo Pereira and Rachid Ghezzal from Porto and Monaco, respectively, but despite this, Claude Puel may have a tricky season managing the expectations of the former champions. Schmeichel and Vardy will once again be relied on at either end of the pitch.
Next manager to leave post: Claude Puel @ 9/2
Leicester have shown in previous years that they aren’t shy of cutting short a manager’s tenure. The Frenchman is yet to instil his own philosophy on this Leicester side; a tough start could prove his undoing.
Fabinho, Naby Keita, Xherdan Shaqiri and Alisson Becker; Liverpool’s summer signings have trumped anyones in the Premier League as they look to mount a serious title challenge. The front three are unlikely to change; the Salah, Mane, Firmino trio are a daunting prospect for defenders throughout the league. Now, with a world class keeper in between the sticks, Liverpool should show big improvements at the back, allowing more points to be gained.
A spine is now present at Anfield. Despite the huge gap between themselves and winners, Man City, last season, Klopp will only have eyes for the Premier League crown; whether their added depth is enough will be shown in time.
To finish in the top two: 10/11
Liverpool look the best set out of the top six to IMPROVE on last season. This should be enough to win the race – at the bare minimum – between the ‘best of the rest’ (assuming City romp to the title). 4/1 isn’t a big enough price to back Liverpool to win their first league title since 1989-90.
– Manchester City
100 points; 106 goals; 32 wins. It’s hard to see how City can improve on last season, but they’ll give it a shot. Riyad Mahrez is the stand out signing, as Guardiola bolsters his already brimming midfield.
With a youthful side – a majority of Pep’s standout players are under 25 – it’s looking like City may have a hold on the Premier League for a few seasons to come; this season may not reach the record-breaking heights of the last, however, retaining their title is to be considered a minimum.
Missing out on Jorginho’s signature to Chelsea may be the only concern for the champions. Accusing them of having a ‘soft core’ would be an exaggeration, however, with Fernandinho approaching 34, it’s certainly a position for Pep to look at in January.
To win the title: 4/6
4/6 doesn’t scream value as a price at the start of the season, however, don’t expect it to get any longer than this. Perhaps hold out until after the opener against Arsenal – providing you think the Gunners can salvage a point (or three?).
– Manchester United
After claiming he hasn’t been given enough to spend (again) in this summer’s transfer market, the pressure is on for Jose Mourinho to build on their second placed finish last season. The signs, however, don’t look good.
Fred is the only notable signing to improve United’s midfield, with Mourinho and the club desperate to keep hold of Paul Pogba as the Barcelona vultures begin to swoop. Harry Maguire is still Mourinho’s number one target as he looks to sure up his defence, however, attacking, attractive football still seems to be missing from his ethos if we are to read into their pre-season venture.
If United fail to get off to a strong start, Mourinho could well be on his way out before Christmas; 4/1 can be got on Mourinho being the first manager to leave his post this season.
Top goalscorer: Romelu Lukaku 8/1
If United are to pressure the likes of Man City and Liverpool this season, Lukaku is to play a huge role. He is guaranteed to start every match, playing 90 minutes in most, meaning 8/1 shows great value for a proven goalscorer.
– Newcastle United
Rafa Benitez pulled up trees last season in keeping the Magpies in the top flight. This season, it’s all about progression. Ki Sung-yueng and Salomon Rondon have been bought in to invigorate their attack; keeping hold of Kenedy for another loan spell from Chelsea may prove to be the best bit of business.
Allowing Aleksandar Mitrovic to move to Fulham for a reported £20.2 million has released some funds allowing Rafa to spend (a little), whether the Serbian’s form for Fulham will lead them to regret this decision is yet to be seen.
Mike Ashley’s turbulent ownership still lingers over St. James’ with Benitez’s position still under threat. If they can come to a compromise on philosophy and funding, Newcastle could flourish, but it’s a big IF.
To finish in the top half: 2/1
Benitez over-performed last season in guiding Newcastle to a tenth placed finish. This is well within reach again for the Magpies, with a notoriously bunched bottom half of the table expected again.
What is ‘Best Bets'
After the success of our World Cup ‘Best Bets' program, we are continuing on the model for full 2018/19 season. ‘Best Bets' is a member only service, providing:
- Two emails per week
- One on a Friday or Saturday morning looking at the weekend action
- One on a Monday or Tuesday morning looking at the mid-week action
- 1-2 of our best bets for each set of upcoming matches
- Our best ‘value' bet that we have identified, priced at 3/1 or higher
- In-depth analysis and previews of one or two of the biggest matches taking place
- Key statistical trends for some of the major upcoming matches
- Complimentary bonus micro strategies throughout the season
Freelance sports writer, sports data analyst and content creator; Lewis has provided some of the biggest names in the betting industry with written content and betting tips over the past seven years. Specialising in football, boxing, and darts, his eye for detail – as well as value – has seen him yield a significant profit as BetVictor's darts tipster. Lewis co-authored the Football Advisor World Cup Stats Betting Pack