TAKE YOUR FOOTBALL BETTING TO THE NEXT LEVEL
One of our most popular series of articles this year, has been what we refer to as summer leagues. These are obscure leagues, where the bookies have yet to work out how to set the odds properly! We've been exploiting these leagues for years now and Patrick has made his living by finding these games and fleecing the bookies mistakes!
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The Baltic Nations
In geographical terms, the Baltic states consist of Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania. They get the name because they are located on the Baltic Sea’s eastern coast. While all three countries enjoy a high Human Development Index, the same cannot be said for the standard of football.
Estonia
There is a total of six divisions in the Estonian football pyramid; ranging from the Meistriliiga to the IV Liga. Bookmakers hardly ever feature games from below the II Liiga, which is the fourth tier, however. There are only a handful of professional sides in Estonia, and this issue leads to some farcical results.
FCI Levedia and Flora Tallinn tend to dominate although Nomme Kalju won the league in 2018. They remained undefeated last season yet lost their very first game in the 2019 season! There are 10 teams in the league, and each side plays one another four times. A lack of clubs in Estonia means the second and third string teams of the top clubs feature heavily in the second, third, and fourth division.
The bookmakers tend to price the Meistriliiga mismatches correctly, but the real fun occurs in the lower tiers. There is simply no way of knowing how well a second or third string team will play on the day due to traveling issues and potentially different line-ups. You can try to get team news from Twitter or other sources. However, games involving the likes of Flora’s B team are worth monitoring in-play because there can be some unusual scorelines.
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Beating the Odds – Finding Consistently Good Bets
Although I am now restricted on Bet365, I like to use it to find games because it has an easy to use interface and offers hundreds of matches most days. I also change the odds to decimal which makes it easier to calculate the odds. The main goal is to focus on possible mismatches which is done by checking the match odds. I like to look at games where the favourite is at odds of 1.25 or less as a starting point (although there are great matches for goal bets where the teams are evenly matched).
When you become more accustomed to this form of betting, you will get to know the best leagues, and I will show you some excellent resources in Part 3. Various sites show you the list of fixtures for the day, but I tend to use Soccerway as a starting point.
To be clear, it is a LOT of work. I sometimes take up to an hour on extremely busy days when there are hundreds of games to choose from. However, in most cases, it takes me 20-30 minutes every morning. Most punters looking for a wild accumulator will probably take a similar amount of time.
By focusing on mismatches, you eliminate over 90% of the immense number of games and reduce your time expenditure. The idea is NOT to lump several games together in a short-priced parley bet. Instead, your goal is to find out if certain teams are capable of beating the handicap or scoring the requisite number of goals.
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The International Language of Money
As the saying goes: Where there is a will, there is a way. With obscure leagues, you need to go the extra mile to find the data you need. There have been occasions where it has taken me 20 minutes to find the information I wanted, but when you get a three-figure payoff, it works out pretty well in a ‘pounds per hour’ sense.
When in doubt, look for the country’s football federation website. Hopefully, it comes up near the top of the page in Google and gives you the option to translate into English.
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Patrick graduated from the National University of Ireland, Galway with an MA in Literature and Publishing but decided he would rather have the freedom of a freelance writer than be stuck in a publishing house all day. He has enjoyed this freedom since 2009 and has written thousands of articles on a variety of topics but sports betting is his passion. While his specialty is finding mismatches in obscure football leagues, he also likes to use his research skills to provide punters with detailed winning strategies in horse racing. You can check out his personal blog on www.lynchthewriter.com or Twitter @pl1982 where he writes content to help small businesses achieve success.